TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.39×

TB @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 3:30p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 5 mph in 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

2:30p

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3:30p

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4:30p

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5:30p

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6:30p

conditions hold steady across the window · +1 FIT

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 53 · vs Lambert ⟷ Yordan Alvarez conv 31 · vs Englert → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 83

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — B ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins — D ●●●●●

3 Ben Williamson — D ●●○○○

FADE Mason Englert RHP · TB

leak 74

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Yordan Alvarez — B ●●●●●

2 Taylor Trammell — C ●●●●○

3 Cam Smith — C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 69.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Lambert — 0.261 · 93.4 · 9.6% 69.2% 36.4% F B O B 70

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Englert Edge — 0.301 · 94.8 · 14.1% 30.0% 31.1% F B O B 75

· HOU Taylor Trammell vs Englert Edge — 0.179 · 89.6 · 10.3% 25.0% 21.5% F B O C 53

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Englert — 0.160 · 89.4 · 11.3% 27.3% 18.7% F B O C 55

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Englert — 0.234 · 89.8 · 10.2% 8.3% 17.8% F B O C 59

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.176 · 90.7 · 8.0% 7.7% 11.6% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Lambert Edge — 0.138 · 88.4 · 5.1% 44.4% 15.1% F B O D 47

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Lambert — 0.100 · 88.0 · 3.1% 16.7% 9.3% F B O D 36

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Englert — 0.161 · 86.9 · 7.9% 7.7% 10.9% F B O D 47

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.071 · 86.3 · 4.9% 11.1% 6.6% F B O D 35

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Lambert — 0.166 · 90.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 43

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Englert — 0.139 · 85.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 43

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Englert — 0.108 · 86.0 · 3.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

· TB Hunter Feduccia vs Lambert Edge — 0.080 · 91.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 40

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.061 · 84.1 · — 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 23

· HOU Nick Allen COOL vs Englert — 0.062 · 84.3 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.5% ← leak BRK 26.1% OFF 22.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.5% 12.5% 6.1% 13.8% B 70 —

Neutral · 1

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

9.8% 13.5% 4.5% 9.6% C 50 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.8% 0.0% 10.0% 3.9% D 47 —

125

Yandy Diaz R

5.4% 12.8% 2.8% 7.5% D 43 —

163

Hunter Feduccia L Edge

14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% D 40 —

195

Ben Williamson R

2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 36 —

206

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.8% 2.6% 4.3% 4.1% D 35 —

239

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.5% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.2% ← leak OFF 30.3% BRK 17.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.0% 11.8% 25.0% 18.8% B 75 —

Neutral · 3

Christian Walker R

8.2% 16.0% 11.4% 10.0% C 59 —

Cam Smith R

10.2% 20.8% 16.7% 12.8% C 55 —

Taylor Trammell L Edge

16.7% 0.0% 5.3% 11.0% C 53 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

102

Isaac Paredes R

7.6% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% D 47 —

132

Jose Altuve R

7.0% 0.0% 6.2% 6.1% D 43 —

199

Nick Allen R

2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 36 —

212

Christian Vazquez R

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.2% usage) carries Englert's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Mullins Alvarez Walker Smith Trammell

Legend

attack side — vs Lambert fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Junior Caminero — · 70

Yordan Alvarez — · 75

Taylor Trammell — · 53

Cam Smith — · 55

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 2:30p · roof retractable

Park 1.07× Wind 5 mph in 93°F retractable

↑

3 mph · in

89°F

2:30p · peak

↑

3 mph · in

89°F

3:30p

↑

3 mph · in

89°F

4:30p

↑

3 mph · in

89°F

5:30p

↑

3 mph · in

89°F

6:30p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.39× 93°F, wind 5 mph SSW (in) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 70 B — WARM 9 0.261 93.4 9.6% 40.0%vs RHP 407 27.7% 69.2% 36.4% 40

2 Jonathan Aranda 50 C — COOL 84 0.176 90.7 8.0% 21.7%vs RHP 391 13.6% 7.7% 11.6% 39

3 Cedric Mullins 47 D — WARM 95 0.138 88.4 5.1% 20.8%vs RHP 393 13.4% 44.4% 15.1% 27

4 Yandy Diaz 43 D — WARM 125 0.166 90.9 7.0% 22.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 35

5 Hunter Feduccia 40 D — WARM 163 0.080 91.1 7.4% 5.6%vs RHP 421 3.4% 0.0% 6.8% 16

6 Ben Williamson 36 D — COOL 195 0.100 88.0 3.1% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.3% 16.7% 9.3% 18

7 Richie Palacios 35 D — COOL 206 0.071 86.3 4.9% 4.0%vs RHP 396 2.5% 11.1% 6.6% 29

8 Chandler Simpson 23 D — COOL 239 0.061 84.1 — 4.2%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 36

vs Mason Englert · RHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 75 B — WARM 4 0.301 94.8 14.1% 26.0%vs RHP 401 28.8% 30.0% 31.1% 32

2 Christian Walker 59 C — COOL 33 0.234 89.8 10.2% 28.6%vs RHP 390 19.8% 8.3% 17.8% 30

3 Cam Smith 55 C — COOL 58 0.160 89.4 11.3% 20.0%vs RHP 415 12.2% 27.3% 18.7% 38

4 Taylor Trammell 53 C — WARM 68 0.179 89.6 10.3% 21.1%vs RHP 418 11.8% 25.0% 21.5% 22

5 Isaac Paredes 47 D — COOL 102 0.161 86.9 7.9% 18.3%vs RHP 370 10.6% 7.7% 10.9% 46

6 Jose Altuve 43 D — COOL 132 0.139 85.5 7.9% 21.9%vs RHP 376 5.7% 0.0% 9.8% 38

7 Nick Allen 36 D — COOL 199 0.062 84.3 4.1% 0.0%vs RHP 367 3.6% 0.0% 6.6% 9

8 Christian Vazquez 34 D — COOL 212 0.108 86.0 3.9% 11.1%vs RHP 373 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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