TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.13×

SF @ COL

Coors Field · 4:00p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 2 mph slight_out 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

2:00p

+6 ↑

3:00p

+0 ↑

4:00p

-5 ↑

5:00p

+2 ↑

6:00p

best window is early — 2:00p at +6

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 40 · vs Mahle ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 32 · vs Gordon → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 97

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +210 B ●●●●●

2 Kyle Karros +700 C ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Tovar +475 D ●●●○○

FADE Tanner Gordon RHP · COL

leak 91

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +198 C+ ●●●●●

2 Heliot Ramos +280 C+ ●●●●○

3 Willy Adames +255 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Mahle +210 0.305 · 91.5 · 11.9% 36.4% 43.8% F B O B 76

· SF Rafael Devers HOT vs Gordon Edge +198 0.219 · 92.3 · 12.2% 33.3% 31.2% F B O C+ 66

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Gordon +280 0.185 · 92.0 · 13.8% 33.3% 19.2% F B O C+ 60

· COL Kyle Karros HOT vs Mahle +700 0.159 · 89.8 · 8.2% 18.2% 23.1% F B O C 53

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Mahle Edge +700 0.207 · 85.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 25.9% F B O C 59

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Gordon +255 0.200 · 88.3 · 10.8% 8.3% 14.8% F B O C 57

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Mahle Edge +475 0.193 · 84.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 14.5% F B O C 50

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Gordon +245 0.207 · 89.7 · 12.7% 0.0% 13.0% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Mahle +475 0.141 · 87.5 · 7.7% 20.0% 15.9% F B O D 49

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Gordon Edge +700 0.141 · 87.4 · 5.8% 8.3% 9.8% F B O D 43

· COL Willi Castro vs Mahle Edge +475 0.113 · 88.4 · 7.2% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 44

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Gordon Edge — 0.120 · 85.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· COL Troy Johnston vs Mahle Edge — 0.144 · 89.5 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 41

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Mahle +750 0.087 · 87.7 · 3.1% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.100 · 91.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 43

· SF Luis Arraez vs Gordon Edge +850 0.136 · 87.4 · 2.8% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.6% BRK 36.9% OFF 21.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.0% 8.6% 10.9% 12.0% C+ 66 +198

Heliot Ramos R

14.5% 17.0% 10.0% 14.7% C+ 60 +280

Casey Schmitt R

9.3% 18.3% 21.1% 12.7% C 59 +245

Willy Adames R

8.3% 8.9% 15.0% 9.1% C 57 +255

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

123

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 2.9% D 43 +700

150

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.4% 2.8% 0.0% 2.1% D 40 —

179

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 2.4% 0.6% D 36 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Gordon's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.2% ← leak OFF 25.4% BRK 10.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

17.9% 8.7% 17.8% 16.8% B 76 +210

Neutral · 3

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

5.0% 13.6% 2.1% 5.2% C 59 +700

Kyle Karros R

6.8% 18.8% 5.8% 7.6% C 53 +700

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.9% 7.0% 2.6% 5.7% C 50 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Tovar R

7.1% 4.8% 10.3% 8.1% D 49 +475

111

Willi Castro S Edge

5.8% 7.7% 6.0% 6.2% D 44 +475

125

Edouard Julien L Edge

6.0% 3.6% 11.8% 6.9% D 43 —

138

Troy Johnston L Edge

3.0% 0.0% 4.2% 2.7% D 41 —

173

Tyler Freeman R

2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 37 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.2% usage) carries Mahle's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Ramos Goodman Karros Tovar

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Hunter Goodman +210 · 76

Rafael Devers +198 · 66

Heliot Ramos +280 · 60

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 2:00p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 2 mph slight_out 64°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

89°F

2:00p · peak

↑

3 mph · slight_out

93°F

3:00p

↑

7 mph · in

90°F

4:00p

-5

↑

11 mph · in

87°F

5:00p

↑

15 mph · cross

84°F

6:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 64°F, wind 2 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Gordon · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 66 C+ +198 HOT 13 0.219 92.3 12.2% 24.5%vs RHP 403 16.2% 33.3% 31.2% 30

2 Heliot Ramos 60 C+ +280 WARM 31 0.185 92.0 13.8% 18.5%vs RHP 406 11.8% 33.3% 19.2% 16

3 Casey Schmitt 59 C +245 WARM 36 0.207 89.7 12.7% 20.3%vs RHP 394 15.7% 0.0% 13.0% 34

4 Willy Adames 57 C +255 COOL 48 0.200 88.3 10.8% 19.6%vs RHP 389 14.3% 8.3% 14.8% 17

5 Jung Hoo Lee 43 D +700 COOL 123 0.141 87.4 5.8% 9.5%vs RHP 378 5.1% 8.3% 9.8% 34

6 Drew Gilbert 40 D — COOL 150 0.120 85.3 5.3% 13.0%vs RHP 393 2.4% 0.0% 9.6% 13

7 Luis Arraez 36 D +850 WARM 179 0.136 87.4 2.8% 3.8%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 33

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 76 B +210 WARM 1 0.305 91.5 11.9% 40.4%vs RHP 409 27.3% 36.4% 43.8% 28

2 Jake Mccarthy 59 C +700 WARM 37 0.207 85.5 7.2% 17.9%vs RHP 419 18.2% 0.0% 25.9% 45

3 Kyle Karros 53 C +700 HOT 65 0.159 89.8 8.2% 19.2%vs RHP 407 9.0% 18.2% 23.1% 21

4 Tj Rumfield 50 C +475 COOL 82 0.193 84.2 6.9% 19.4%vs RHP 406 9.1% 0.0% 14.5% 38

5 Ezequiel Tovar 49 D +475 COOL 84 0.141 87.5 7.7% 17.0%vs RHP 412 7.6% 20.0% 15.9% 30

6 Willi Castro 44 D +475 WARM 111 0.113 88.4 7.2% 11.1%vs RHP 425 6.1% 9.1% 8.8% 26

7 Edouard Julien 43 D — COOL 125 0.100 91.2 7.3% 10.7%vs RHP 389 2.8% 0.0% 8.8% 16

8 Troy Johnston 41 D — WARM 138 0.144 89.5 4.3% 8.3%vs RHP 415 1.5% 0.0% 9.3% 22

9 Tyler Freeman 37 D +750 COOL 173 0.087 87.7 3.1% 4.2%vs RHP 369 2.7% 0.0% 9.0% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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