Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-30T11:00:31-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
4
Edges That Hit HR
13%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-30
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Christian Yelich | Kumar Rocker | Splitter | +6.7 | +14.6 | 1% | 2 | 1 | #107 | |
| · | Harry Ford | Janson Junk | Sweeper | +12.3 | +1.8 | 14% | 1 | 5 | #36 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +9.5 | +0.4 | 27% | 2 | 4 | #124 | |
| · | Ryan Jeffers | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +3.0 | +0.7 | 49% | 3 | 0 | #115 | |
| · | Charles Mcadoo | Logan Gilbert | Cutter | +12.4 | +0.7 | 6% | 1 | 2 | #176 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.6 | 56% | 7 | 8 | #35 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +2.3 | +1.8 | 44% | 13 | 13 | #1 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +3.6 | -0.2 | 45% | 8 | 5 | #17 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Kumar Rocker | Splitter | +1.8 | +14.6 | 1% | 0 | 1 | #26 | |
| 💥 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.6 | 56% | 13 | 8 | #5 | |
| · | Trevor Larnach | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +1.5 | +0.7 | 49% | 3 | 0 | #158 | |
| · | Andres Chaparro | Janson Junk | Fastball | +4.9 | -0.2 | 36% | 7 | 2 | #24 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.2 | 47% | 10 | 3 | #28 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.6 | 56% | 0 | 8 | #117 | |
| · | Royce Lewis | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +1.4 | +0.7 | 49% | 6 | 0 | #131 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Seth Lugo | Slurve | +8.9 | +4.4 | 2% | 0 | 0 | #217 | |
| · | Tommy Edman | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +2.6 | -0.2 | 45% | 0 | 5 | #145 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Yusei Kikuchi | Fastball | +3.7 | +0.9 | 36% | 13 | 0 | #49 | |
| · | Michael Busch | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.3 | -0.6 | 56% | 8 | 8 | #55 | |
| · | Alex Bregman | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.3 | -0.6 | 56% | 6 | 8 | #73 | |
| 💥 | Luke Keaschall | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +0.9 | +0.7 | 49% | 1 | 0 | #206 | |
| · | Mickey Moniak | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +1.9 | -0.7 | 48% | 9 | 9 | #22 | |
| · | Connor Norby | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +5.5 | +0.4 | 27% | 0 | 4 | #98 | |
| · | Abimelec Ortiz | Janson Junk | Fastball | +4.0 | -0.2 | 36% | 3 | 2 | #42 | |
| 💥 | Sal Stewart | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.2 | 41% | 11 | 13 | #7 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Will Warren | Sinker | +4.7 | +1.2 | 26% | 9 | 4 | #11 | |
| · | Enrique Hernandez | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +1.7 | -0.2 | 45% | 0 | 5 | #125 | |
| · | A.J. Ewing | Ethan Pecko | Cutter | +4.5 | +4.5 | 16% | 1 | 1 | #154 | |
| · | Javier Baez | Tyler Glasnow | Fastball | +4.0 | +0.5 | 32% | 1 | 4 | #209 | |
| 💥 | Nathaniel Lowe | Seth Lugo | Cutter | +7.9 | +0.0 | 16% | 3 | 3 | #82 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+49.4 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+42.1 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+37.9 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+43.7 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+31.2 RV allowed
Zack Littell
+24.4 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.