Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-17T11:00:28-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-17
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Brett Baty | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +9.9 | +3.7 | 9% | 1 | 3 | #93 | |
| · | Chase Meidroth | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +7.8 | -0.7 | 33% | 2 | 7 | #68 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Quinn Mathews | Fastball | +3.0 | +0.8 | 41% | 10 | 0 | #25 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +4.0 | -0.1 | 41% | 2 | 13 | #83 | |
| · | Caleb Durbin | Mitch Bratt | Slurve | +7.4 | +0.0 | 25% | 0 | 0 | #121 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.4 | 47% | 7 | 5 | #9 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +3.0 | -0.1 | 41% | 12 | 13 | #1 | |
| · | Henry Bolte | Michael Wacha | Curveball | +8.7 | +1.5 | 10% | 1 | 1 | #104 | |
| · | Mickey Moniak | Blake Snell | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.7 | 48% | 8 | 0 | #32 | |
| · | Nick Loftin | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +0.3 | +1.4 | 47% | 3 | 5 | #88 | |
| · | Bobby Witt | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +0.1 | +1.4 | 47% | 1 | 5 | #47 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Shota Imanaga | Sweeper | +7.1 | +1.3 | 15% | 2 | 5 | #73 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Janson Junk | Fastball | +3.5 | -0.4 | 36% | 12 | 2 | #10 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Andre Pallante | Knuckle Curve | +6.0 | +1.7 | 18% | 1 | 3 | #21 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Mason Barnett | Fastball | -0.2 | +1.4 | 47% | 7 | 5 | #36 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Quinn Mathews | Fastball | +1.5 | +0.8 | 41% | 8 | 0 | #53 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Blake Snell | Fastball | +1.3 | -0.7 | 48% | 7 | 0 | #102 | |
| · | Willi Castro | Blake Snell | Fastball | +1.2 | -0.7 | 48% | 7 | 0 | #106 | |
| · | Spencer Horwitz | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +1.4 | -0.1 | 45% | 0 | 5 | #109 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.4 | 44% | 6 | 7 | #14 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Mitch Bratt | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.4 | 40% | 4 | 3 | #29 | |
| · | Dansby Swanson | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.4 | 44% | 7 | 7 | #34 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +1.2 | -0.1 | 45% | 1 | 5 | #82 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +1.8 | -0.5 | 43% | 2 | 6 | #97 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Blake Snell | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.7 | 48% | 4 | 0 | #125 | |
| · | Jared Triolo | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +1.2 | -0.1 | 45% | 1 | 5 | #151 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Quinn Mathews | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.8 | 41% | 12 | 0 | #23 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Bailey Ober | Changeup | +1.8 | +1.5 | 34% | 4 | 6 | #4 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Bailey Ober | Changeup | +1.9 | +1.5 | 34% | 1 | 6 | #43 | |
| · | Isaac Collins | Mason Barnett | Fastball | -0.8 | +1.4 | 47% | 1 | 5 | #98 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+42.7 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+26.9 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.