Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-16T11:00:30-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-16
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Lake Bachar | Splitter | +18.9 | +0.6 | 9% | 2 | 1 | #77 | |
| · | Abimelec Ortiz | Christian Scott | Fastball | +5.8 | +0.0 | 49% | 2 | 5 | #86 | |
| · | Max Clark | Sean Burke | Slider | +12.6 | +0.3 | 17% | 0 | 3 | #192 | |
| · | Andres Chaparro | Christian Scott | Fastball | +4.7 | +0.0 | 49% | 5 | 5 | #127 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +3.6 | -1.6 | 57% | 7 | 2 | #126 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.6 | +0.5 | 53% | 11 | 10 | #14 | |
| · | Ryan Vilade | Trevor Rogers | Changeup | +7.6 | +1.3 | 22% | 3 | 2 | #91 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.6 | 57% | 4 | 2 | #220 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.9 | +0.5 | 53% | 3 | 10 | #132 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Christian Scott | Fastball | +2.0 | +0.0 | 49% | 4 | 5 | #84 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Christian Scott | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.0 | 49% | 6 | 5 | #176 | |
| · | Salvador Perez | Ryan Johnson | Sinker | +3.1 | +4.4 | 25% | 6 | 7 | #147 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +2.5 | -1.2 | 47% | 12 | 5 | #8 | |
| · | Rafael Devers | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.7 | -1.6 | 57% | 13 | 2 | #96 | |
| · | Willy Adames | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.7 | -1.6 | 57% | 9 | 2 | #171 | |
| · | Drew Gilbert | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.7 | -1.6 | 57% | 2 | 2 | #219 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Drew Anderson | Changeup | +3.9 | +1.5 | 31% | 4 | 4 | #4 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +4.5 | -1.0 | 36% | 15 | 4 | #41 | |
| · | Leody Taveras | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.4 | +0.5 | 53% | 4 | 10 | #136 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +2.2 | -1.2 | 47% | 5 | 5 | #153 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Drew Anderson | Fastball | +4.2 | -1.9 | 40% | 2 | 2 | #178 | |
| · | Tyler Soderstrom | Cody Bradford | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.2 | 45% | 6 | 0 | #17 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Logan Henderson | Fastball | +2.3 | -1.2 | 46% | 12 | 4 | #18 | |
| · | Colton Cowser | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.7 | +0.5 | 53% | 2 | 10 | #72 | |
| · | Coby Mayo | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.9 | +0.5 | 53% | 3 | 10 | #46 | |
| · | Mickey Moniak | Blade Tidwell | Sweeper | +3.5 | -0.8 | 38% | 3 | 0 | #64 | |
| · | Yohel Pozo | Freddy Peralta | Changeup | +6.0 | +0.6 | 22% | 0 | 3 | #133 | |
| · | Javier Baez | Sean Burke | Fastball | +4.2 | -1.5 | 38% | 1 | 8 | #221 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Dean Kremer | Splitter | +4.9 | -0.2 | 28% | 2 | 2 | #2 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Eury Perez | Fastball | +3.0 | -1.1 | 40% | 10 | 5 | #9 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+40.5 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+26.9 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.