Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-28T11:00:35-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-28
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Gleyber Torres | Dean Kremer | Splitter | +13.4 | +0.2 | 31% | 0 | 2 | #163 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Slade Cecconi | Cutter | +9.8 | -0.7 | 25% | 3 | 4 | #15 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Christian Scott | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.5 | 49% | 7 | 5 | #32 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.7 | 57% | 5 | 7 | #60 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.7 | 57% | 6 | 7 | #103 | |
| · | Brayan Rocchio | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.7 | 57% | 6 | 7 | #134 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.7 | 57% | 7 | 7 | #85 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Logan Henderson | Fastball | +4.3 | -0.6 | 42% | 6 | 2 | #89 | |
| · | Nathan Lukes | Cade Cavalli | Knuckle Curve | +7.6 | -0.6 | 27% | 1 | 2 | #218 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +2.5 | +0.7 | 44% | 10 | 7 | #2 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.6 | 49% | 4 | 5 | #6 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +2.4 | +0.2 | 45% | 11 | 8 | #26 | |
| · | Kyle Manzardo | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.7 | 57% | 4 | 7 | #57 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.1 | -0.2 | 48% | 5 | 5 | #180 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +2.5 | +0.2 | 45% | 5 | 8 | #185 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Shane Bieber | Cutter | +8.4 | +1.4 | 14% | 6 | 2 | #3 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Gavin Williams | Cutter | +9.8 | +1.1 | 8% | 3 | 3 | #14 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.5 | 49% | 11 | 5 | #20 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +6.9 | +1.9 | 18% | 0 | 0 | #90 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +2.2 | +0.2 | 45% | 2 | 8 | #97 | |
| · | Javier Sanoja | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +5.6 | -1.0 | 34% | 0 | 6 | #204 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +2.9 | -1.2 | 46% | 10 | 4 | #10 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.1 | -0.7 | 57% | 1 | 7 | #225 | |
| · | Ty France | Michael Lorenzen | Changeup | +5.5 | +2.7 | 20% | 1 | 4 | #23 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +1.7 | +0.7 | 44% | 8 | 7 | #36 | |
| · | Wilyer Abreu | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.6 | 49% | 8 | 5 | #28 | |
| · | Ozzie Albies | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.5 | 49% | 7 | 5 | #105 | |
| · | Caleb Durbin | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.6 | 49% | 4 | 5 | #112 | |
| · | Colt Keith | Dean Kremer | Curveball | +5.0 | +4.7 | 14% | 0 | 2 | #155 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Anthony Kay | Fastball | +6.0 | +0.3 | 24% | 15 | 4 | #5 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+33.1 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+23.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.