TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.31×

STL @ SF

Oracle Park · 8:10p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 10 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

5:10p

+6 ↑

6:10p

+3 ↑

7:10p

+2 ↑

8:10p

+0 ↑

9:10p

best window is early — 5:10p at +7

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 42 · vs McGreevy ⟷ Nolan Gorman conv 13 · vs Webb → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 67

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +425 C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +575 D ●●○○○

3 Drew Gilbert +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 45

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Gorman +700 D ●●○○○

2 Jordan Walker +625 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 12.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 57.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ HOT vs McGreevy Edge +425 0.261 · 93.1 · 10.9% 57.1% 26.4% F B O C+ 64

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Webb Edge +700 0.130 · 89.5 · 7.7% 18.2% 7.5% F B O D 35

· STL Jordan Walker vs Webb +625 0.213 · 92.3 · 8.7% 8.3% 12.5% F B O D 46

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs McGreevy Edge +575 0.188 · 92.3 · 10.5% 9.1% 10.6% F B O D 47

· SF Drew Gilbert vs McGreevy Edge +850 0.141 · 86.7 · 7.1% 8.3% 7.7% F B O D 35

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Webb Edge — 0.121 · 86.0 · 5.8% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 30

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Webb Edge +575 0.180 · 91.9 · 7.9% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 40

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Webb +750 0.137 · 89.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 28

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs McGreevy Edge +800 0.129 · 87.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Webb — 0.113 · 86.1 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.8% ← leak OFF 24.4% BRK 19.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jordan Walker R

14.2% 17.5% 10.8% 13.3% D 46 +625

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.3% 9.8% 10.0% 10.6% D 40 +575

119

Nolan Gorman L Edge

14.8% 5.9% 3.0% 10.1% D 35 +700

141

Nathan Church L Edge

6.5% 4.0% 6.5% 5.9% D 30 —

145

Ivan Herrera R

5.7% 8.3% 4.7% 5.7% D 28 +750

148

José Fermín R

3.2% 0.0% 1.6% 2.4% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.8% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.7% ← leak BRK 27.6% OFF 19.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.5% 11.7% 7.0% 12.4% C+ 64 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

11.2% 11.3% 13.5% 11.6% D 47 +575

118

Drew Gilbert L Edge

6.0% 7.0% 0.0% 5.2% D 35 +850

142

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.7% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% D 30 +800

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.7% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers

Legend

attack side — vs McGreevy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +425 · 64

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 5:10p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 10 mph out 79°F open

↑

10 mph · out

79°F

5:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

75°F

6:10p

↑

7 mph · out

71°F

7:10p

↑

6 mph · out

68°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

67°F

9:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 79°F, wind 10 mph W (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 46 D +625 · 53 0.213 92.3 8.7% 26.0%vs RHP 406 17.6% 8.3% 12.5% 29

2 Alec Burleson 40 D +575 COOL 90 0.180 91.9 7.9% 21.9%vs RHP 405 13.9% 0.0% 10.0% 35

3 Nolan Gorman 35 D +700 WARM 119 0.130 89.5 7.7% 14.6%vs RHP 407 10.1% 18.2% 7.5% 18

4 Nathan Church 30 D — COOL 141 0.121 86.0 5.8% 13.8%vs RHP 386 7.9% 8.3% 6.6% 37

5 Ivan Herrera 28 D +750 WARM 145 0.137 89.3 5.7% 18.2%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 36

6 José Fermín 25 D — COOL 148 0.113 86.1 3.6% 6.2%vs RHP 390 5.7% 0.0% 5.9% 34

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 64 C+ +425 HOT 2 0.261 93.1 10.9% 30.1%vs RHP 398 22.3% 57.1% 26.4% 39

2 Bryce Eldridge 47 D +575 · 45 0.188 92.3 10.5% 18.9%vs RHP 399 17.6% 9.1% 10.6% 26

3 Drew Gilbert 35 D +850 WARM 118 0.141 86.7 7.1% 16.7%vs RHP 394 6.7% 8.3% 7.7% 28

4 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D +800 WARM 142 0.129 87.4 4.9% 9.9%vs RHP 382 5.4% 0.0% 6.5% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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