TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.11×

ATL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 1:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.11× Wind 5 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

1:05p

-1 ↑

2:05p

+0 ↑

3:05p

+0 ↑

4:05p

+1 ↑

5:05p

conditions build late — the 5:05p window peaks +1

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 28 · vs Holmes ⟷ Matt Olson conv 12 · vs Luzardo → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 82

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +210 B ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +370 C+ ●●○○○

3 Alec Bohm +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 13

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +390 C+ ●●○○○

2 Michael Harris — D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 16.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Holmes Edge +210 0.279 · 92.3 · 12.0% 25.0% 31.1% F B O B 74

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Holmes Edge +370 0.230 · 90.4 · 9.6% 8.3% 20.3% F B O C+ 62

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Luzardo +390 0.262 · 92.6 · 9.6% 8.3% 16.4% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Luzardo — 0.204 · 90.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 24.2% F B O D 47

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Luzardo +575 0.173 · 91.7 · 8.8% 8.3% 12.2% F B O D 49

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Luzardo Edge +525 0.162 · 87.1 · 5.0% 8.3% 11.2% F B O D 42

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Holmes +700 0.141 · 90.5 · 7.2% 9.1% 9.7% F B O D 47

· ATL Austin Riley vs Luzardo Edge +500 0.141 · 91.5 · 8.8% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 44

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Holmes Edge +575 0.147 · 89.1 · 6.9% 8.3% 9.7% F B O D 46

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Luzardo Edge — 0.180 · 90.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 17.3% F B O D 45

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Holmes +625 0.132 · 89.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 16.3% F B O D 42

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Holmes Edge +625 0.153 · 89.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 49

· PHI Trea Turner vs Holmes +525 0.137 · 88.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 46

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Luzardo Edge +950 0.122 · 86.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 33

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.084 · 87.2 · 3.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Luzardo — 0.123 · 87.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Luzardo — 0.148 · 90.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.6% ← leak BRK 38.1% OFF 18.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L

16.5% 12.1% 12.5% 14.7% C+ 61 +390

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Drake Baldwin L

12.0% 18.3% 5.7% 12.7% D 49 +575

Michael Harris L

7.1% 13.6% 13.2% 10.3% D 47 —

Ronald Acuna R Edge

12.4% 12.7% 12.1% 12.4% D 45 —

Austin Riley R Edge

12.4% 13.5% 5.1% 11.9% D 44 +500

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.3% 1.6% 2.5% 4.1% D 42 +525

Mike Yastrzemski L

7.0% 6.8% 5.3% 6.7% D 40 —

102

Dominic Smith L

5.6% 7.1% 2.5% 5.4% D 38 —

127

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

2.8% 5.9% 4.2% 3.9% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.6% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.0% ← leak BRK 44.7% OFF 6.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.2% 14.6% 27.3% 16.8% B 74 +210

Neutral · 1

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.8% 12.6% 6.7% 11.1% C+ 62 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

6.5% 14.6% 3.4% 8.2% D 49 +625

Alec Bohm R

5.1% 7.0% 10.3% 6.1% D 47 +700

Trea Turner R

7.9% 4.7% 4.3% 6.4% D 46 +525

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.5% 3.4% 5.8% 6.0% D 46 +575

J.T. Realmuto R

4.4% 7.0% 4.0% 5.0% D 42 +625

123

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.3% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.0% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +210 · 74

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.11× Wind 5 mph in 76°F open

-1

↑

5 mph · in

72°F

1:05p

-1

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

2:05p

↑

5 mph · in

77°F

3:05p

↑

6 mph · cross

79°F

4:05p

↑

7 mph · cross

81°F

5:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 76°F, wind 5 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 61 C+ +390 COOL 7 0.262 92.6 9.6% 22.6%vs LHP 408 22.9% 8.3% 16.4% 30

2 Drake Baldwin 49 D +575 · 34 0.173 91.7 8.8% 26.9%vs LHP 402 15.4% 8.3% 12.2% 33

3 Michael Harris 47 D — COOL 41 0.204 90.5 8.1% 26.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 24.2% 29

4 Ronald Acuna 45 D — WARM 57 0.180 90.5 8.9% 19.1%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 31

5 Austin Riley 44 D +500 · 62 0.141 91.5 8.8% 8.7%vs LHP 409 9.2% 9.1% 9.0% 23

6 Ozzie Albies 42 D +525 · 77 0.162 87.1 5.0% 14.3%vs LHP 387 13.3% 8.3% 11.2% 35

7 Mike Yastrzemski 40 D — COOL 89 0.148 90.6 6.4% 0.0%vs LHP 389 7.7% 0.0% 7.0% 16

8 Dominic Smith 38 D — WARM 102 0.123 87.8 5.8% 0.0%vs LHP 392 7.9% 0.0% 7.7% 3

9 Mauricio Dubon 33 D +950 COOL 127 0.122 86.4 4.9% 9.5%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 35

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 74 B +210 COOL 1 0.279 92.3 12.0% 42.4%vs RHP 403 23.3% 25.0% 31.1% 30

2 Bryce Harper 62 C+ +370 · 5 0.230 90.4 9.6% 34.8%vs RHP 402 18.1% 8.3% 20.3% 33

3 Brandon Marsh 49 D +625 COOL 36 0.153 89.2 8.2% 18.4%vs RHP 391 11.1% 0.0% 11.4% 18

4 Alec Bohm 47 D +700 WARM 44 0.141 90.5 7.2% 13.3%vs RHP 394 10.7% 9.1% 9.7% 25

5 Trea Turner 46 D +525 WARM 50 0.137 88.4 7.3% 17.9%vs RHP 392 11.9% 0.0% 10.1% 36

6 Bryson Stott 46 D +575 · 51 0.147 89.1 6.9% 9.5%vs RHP 393 7.6% 8.3% 9.7% 27

7 J.T. Realmuto 42 D +625 WARM 75 0.132 89.7 6.5% 17.8%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 24

8 Justin Crawford 34 D — COOL 123 0.084 87.2 3.3% 4.2%vs RHP 382 1.9% 0.0% 7.8% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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