TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ MIA

Neutral air · 1.00×

NYM @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 1:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 7 mph cross 85°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-7 ↑

1:10p

-9 ↑

2:10p

-10 ↑

3:10p

-11 ↑

4:10p

-11 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -7

Best of game Juan Soto conv 26 · vs Pérez ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 23 · vs Tong → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 29

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +320 C ●●●●○

2 Francisco Lindor +425 D ●●●●○

3 Bo Bichette +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Jonah Tong RHP

leak 3

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.88 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +350 C ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández +390 D ●●○○○

3 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ COOL vs Pérez Edge +320 0.254 · 92.3 · 11.8% 28.6% 23.8% F B O C 57

· — Kyle Stowers HOT vs Tong Edge +350 0.229 · 92.5 · 9.4% 30.0% 16.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Pérez Edge +425 0.196 · 91.1 · 9.5% 33.3% 16.7% F B O D 48

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Pérez +850 0.133 · 89.5 · 8.2% 18.2% 7.3% F B O D 37

· — Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Tong +390 0.235 · 91.2 · 9.8% 0.0% 22.7% F B O D 45

· — Javier Sanoja COOL vs Tong — 0.140 · 86.8 · 3.9% 15.4% 6.4% F B O D 31

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Pérez +500 0.176 · 90.2 · 12.6% 0.0% 20.1% F B O D 42

· — Jakob Marsee vs Tong Edge +850 0.118 · 87.4 · 5.1% 10.0% 4.8% F B O D 30

· — Otto Lopez vs Tong +850 0.138 · 89.1 · 6.6% 7.7% 6.4% F B O D 34

· — Owen Caissie COOL vs Tong Edge +475 0.189 · 91.0 · 9.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 43

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Pérez Edge +625 0.166 · 89.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Pérez +850 0.127 · 86.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Pérez Edge +625 0.140 · 88.8 · 8.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 35

· NYM Brett Baty vs Pérez Edge +700 0.120 · 90.1 · 9.8% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 35

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Pérez Edge +850 0.118 · 89.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.5% ← leak BRK 35.4% OFF 9.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L Edge

18.3% 12.8% 4.2% 14.2% C 57 +320

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.5% 6.1% 5.6% 9.2% D 48 +425

Francisco Alvarez R

15.7% 16.7% 15.4% 16.0% D 42 +500

106

Jared Young L Edge

6.0% 6.0% 11.4% 6.8% D 37 +625

108

Bo Bichette R

6.1% 9.6% 0.0% 6.5% D 37 +850

116

Carson Benge L Edge

6.2% 8.0% 7.2% 6.9% D 35 +625

117

Brett Baty L Edge

8.2% 14.8% 5.5% 9.1% D 35 +700

129

Marcus Semien R

8.4% 1.8% 5.9% 6.0% D 33 +850

138

A.J. Ewing L Edge

7.1% 11.3% 2.2% 7.2% D 30 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.5% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.5% ← leak OFF 28.1% BRK 8.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.5% 7.1% 22.2% 12.9% C 51 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R

14.2% 13.6% 13.9% 14.1% D 45 +390

Owen Caissie L Edge

15.1% 17.1% 8.5% 13.7% D 43 +475

124

Otto Lopez R

8.5% 4.1% 3.6% 6.1% D 34 +850

135

Javier Sanoja R

2.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2.0% D 31 —

140

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.8% 7.0% 1.7% 3.8% D 30 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.5% usage) carries Tong's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Stowers

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto +320 · 57

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.83× Wind 7 mph cross 85°F retractable

-7

↑

7 mph · cross

83°F

1:10p · peak

-9

↑

8 mph · cross

83°F

2:10p

-10

↑

10 mph · cross

82°F

3:10p

-11

↑

12 mph · cross

82°F

4:10p

-11

↑

14 mph · cross

81°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 85°F, wind 7 mph S (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 57 C +320 COOL 14 0.254 92.3 11.8% 31.7%vs RHP 400 20.2% 28.6% 23.8% 22

2 Francisco Lindor 48 D +425 · 38 0.196 91.1 9.5% 19.3%vs RHP 395 14.9% 33.3% 16.7% 34

3 Francisco Alvarez 42 D +500 WARM 76 0.176 90.2 12.6% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 14

4 Jared Young 37 D +625 COOL 106 0.166 89.8 8.2% 18.2%vs RHP 400 6.3% 0.0% 8.2% 29

5 Bo Bichette 37 D +850 WARM 108 0.133 89.5 8.2% 11.0%vs RHP 388 10.9% 18.2% 7.3% 29

6 Carson Benge 35 D +625 COOL 116 0.140 88.8 8.4% 14.1%vs RHP 396 10.2% 0.0% 6.6% 31

7 Brett Baty 35 D +700 WARM 117 0.120 90.1 9.8% 12.7%vs RHP 393 6.6% 0.0% 6.0% 15

8 Marcus Semien 33 D +850 COOL 129 0.127 86.5 7.6% 15.1%vs RHP 391 10.3% 0.0% 7.6% 31

9 A.J. Ewing 30 D +850 COOL 138 0.118 89.3 8.4% 10.6%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 28

vs Jonah Tong · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.88 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 51 C +350 HOT 28 0.229 92.5 9.4% 23.9%vs RHP 400 15.2% 30.0% 16.6% 21

2 Heriberto Hernández 45 D +390 COOL 56 0.235 91.2 9.8% 25.5%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 22.7% 33

3 Owen Caissie 43 D +475 COOL 69 0.189 91.0 9.7% 26.0%vs RHP 398 13.3% 0.0% 8.3% 11

4 Otto Lopez 34 D +850 · 124 0.138 89.1 6.6% 9.2%vs RHP 402 6.5% 7.7% 6.4% 41

5 Javier Sanoja 31 D — COOL 135 0.140 86.8 3.9% 8.5%vs RHP 381 8.1% 15.4% 6.4% 44

6 Jakob Marsee 30 D +850 WARM 140 0.118 87.4 5.1% 11.4%vs RHP 382 8.0% 10.0% 4.8% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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