TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.10×

CLE @ BAL

Camden Yards · 1:35p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 6 mph in 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:35p

-4 ↑

2:35p

-3 ↑

3:35p

-2 ↑

4:35p

-3 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks -2

Best of game Brayan Rocchio conv 17 · vs Rogers ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 25 · vs Cantillo → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 78

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●●●○○

2 Patrick Bailey — D ●●○○○

3 Travis Bazzana — D ●●○○○

FADE Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 78

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Coby Mayo +500 C ●●●●○

3 Gunnar Henderson +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 14.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Cantillo Edge +390 0.229 · 94.3 · 10.4% 23.1% 26.7% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Cantillo Edge +500 0.221 · 91.4 · 9.7% 18.2% 30.9% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Rogers Edge +750 0.126 · 86.9 · 4.8% 25.0% 9.6% F B O D 36

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Rogers Edge — 0.124 · 90.4 · 7.0% 12.5% 13.3% F B O D 39

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Rogers — 0.135 · 87.7 · 5.8% 18.2% 6.0% F B O D 38

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Cantillo +500 0.179 · 89.4 · 7.3% 7.7% 14.9% F B O D 46

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Rogers Edge +575 0.187 · 87.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 20.9% F B O D 41

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Cantillo — 0.153 · 88.0 · 8.9% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 45

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Cantillo +750 0.119 · 87.0 · 7.4% 10.0% 6.8% F B O D 38

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Cantillo Edge +750 0.131 · 88.3 · 5.7% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 37

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Cantillo — 0.192 · 90.5 · 9.9% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 49

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Rogers Edge +390 0.141 · 89.1 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 34

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Rogers +625 0.164 · 91.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 39

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Rogers — 0.057 · 83.8 · 1.9% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.3% ← leak OFF 21.2% BRK 13.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Angel Martinez S Edge

6.9% 3.9% 13.5% 7.3% D 41 +575

Chase Delauter L

7.7% 1.5% 6.2% 6.2% D 39 +625

Patrick Bailey S Edge

9.2% 4.3% 4.0% 6.7% D 39 —

105

Travis Bazzana L

5.3% 2.5% 3.0% 4.4% D 38 —

111

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.9% 1.0% 3.9% 3.2% D 36 +750

122

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 34 +390

150

Steven Kwan L

0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.3% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.6% ← leak BRK 34.3% OFF 25.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.4% 10.1% 16.7% 14.1% C+ 61 +390

Coby Mayo R Edge

10.3% 14.5% 15.2% 12.4% C 57 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Samuel Basallo L

15.0% 10.0% 11.5% 12.8% D 49 —

Gunnar Henderson L

6.9% 7.3% 7.0% 7.0% D 46 +500

Colton Cowser L

12.1% 14.3% 3.8% 10.5% D 45 —

103

Jackson Holliday L

7.9% 5.8% 6.7% 7.1% D 38 +750

107

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.2% 8.2% 0.0% 4.2% D 37 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.6% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rocchio Alonso Mayo

Legend

attack side — vs Rogers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Alonso +390 · 61

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 6 mph in 79°F open

-4

↑

6 mph · in

74°F

1:35p

-4

↑

6 mph · in

76°F

2:35p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

78°F

3:35p

-2

↑

5 mph · cross

80°F

4:35p · peak

-3

↑

5 mph · in

79°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 79°F, wind 6 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 41 D +575 COOL 83 0.187 87.5 7.2% 18.2%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 23

2 Chase Delauter 39 D +625 · 92 0.164 91.3 6.6% 12.5%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 24

3 Patrick Bailey 39 D — WARM 93 0.124 90.4 7.0% 11.1%vs LHP 409 7.1% 12.5% 13.3% 10

4 Travis Bazzana 38 D — COOL 105 0.135 87.7 5.8% 4.2%vs LHP 396 10.4% 18.2% 6.0% 22

5 Brayan Rocchio 36 D +750 · 111 0.126 86.9 4.8% 10.8%vs LHP 384 9.0% 25.0% 9.6% 33

6 Jose Ramirez 34 D +390 COOL 122 0.141 89.1 5.5% 16.1%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 41

7 Steven Kwan 21 D — WARM 150 0.057 83.8 1.9% 0.0%vs LHP 372 1.5% 0.0% 5.3% 44

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 61 C+ +390 · 6 0.229 94.3 10.4% 21.4%vs LHP 402 21.0% 23.1% 26.7% 30

2 Coby Mayo 57 C +500 COOL 13 0.221 91.4 9.7% 40.5%vs LHP 411 16.5% 18.2% 30.9% 24

3 Samuel Basallo 49 D — COOL 35 0.192 90.5 9.9% 20.0%vs LHP 399 14.1% 0.0% 11.8% 23

4 Gunnar Henderson 46 D +500 COOL 47 0.179 89.4 7.3% 32.0%vs LHP 393 14.2% 7.7% 14.9% 34

5 Colton Cowser 45 D — WARM 59 0.153 88.0 8.9% 14.3%vs LHP 412 15.6% 10.0% 8.7% 22

6 Jackson Holliday 38 D +750 · 103 0.119 87.0 7.4% 7.7%vs LHP 389 4.8% 10.0% 6.8% 34

7 Leody Taveras 37 D +750 WARM 107 0.131 88.3 5.7% 6.2%vs LHP 403 4.9% 9.1% 7.3% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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