TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.46×

CIN @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 9:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

6:10p

+9 ↑

7:10p

+8 ↑

8:10p

+7 ↑

9:10p

+6 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +10

Best of game Max Muncy conv 17 · vs Burns ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 30 · vs Proxy → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 83

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +400 C ●●●○○

2 Mookie Betts +500 D ●●○○○

3 Tommy Edman +750 D ●●○○○

FADE LAD Bullpen Proxy · LAD

leak 54

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +425 C+ ●●●●●

2 Tyler Stephenson +525 C ●●●●○

3 Elly De La Cruz +425 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: Match 25.8% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Proxy +425 0.217 · 90.1 · 12.9% 33.3% 25.8% F B O C+ 64

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Proxy +525 0.179 · 91.1 · 12.3% 30.0% 19.8% F B O C 56

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Burns Edge +400 0.237 · 90.4 · 10.2% 15.4% 18.3% F B O C 58

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Proxy +425 0.206 · 94.4 · 14.6% 16.7% 14.8% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Proxy +425 0.210 · 88.3 · 11.1% 0.0% 25.1% F B O C 51

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Burns Edge +280 0.246 · 93.2 · 11.1% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C 58

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Proxy +500 0.212 · 88.5 · 10.1% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Burns +500 0.171 · 90.1 · 7.6% 16.7% 9.5% F B O D 45

· LAD Tommy Edman vs Burns Edge +750 0.141 · 88.1 · 6.6% 16.7% 9.2% F B O D 40

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Proxy — 0.113 · 89.3 · 4.3% 14.3% 8.0% F B O D 37

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Burns Edge +525 0.159 · 89.6 · 8.0% 8.3% 10.6% F B O D 43

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Burns Edge +525 0.131 · 88.8 · 6.6% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 38

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Proxy +700 0.161 · 88.4 · 9.6% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Burns +425 0.147 · 90.2 · 9.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for LAD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 55.8% ← leak BRK 38.5% OFF 5.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

18.9% 11.0% 14.3% 15.7% C 58 +280

Max Muncy L Edge

14.8% 8.7% 4.8% 11.6% C 58 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R

7.6% 5.1% 7.0% 7.0% D 45 +500

Freddie Freeman L Edge

8.8% 7.7% 7.5% 8.3% D 43 +525

Tommy Edman S Edge

4.8% 6.9% 7.1% 5.7% D 40 +750

Teoscar Hernandez R

10.1% 12.5% 7.9% 10.3% D 39 +425

101

Kyle Tucker L Edge

8.0% 2.7% 1.2% 5.5% D 38 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.8% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Cruz Stephenson Muncy Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Burns fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Sal Stewart +425 · 64

Tyler Stephenson +525 · 56

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph out 87°F open

+10

↑

8 mph · out

87°F

6:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

84°F

7:10p

↑

6 mph · out

81°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.46× 87°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs LAD Bullpen Proxy 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 64 C+ +425 · 8 0.217 90.1 12.9% 21.7% 397 18.0% 33.3% 25.8% 38

2 Elly De La Cruz 62 C+ +425 WARM 9 0.206 94.4 14.6% 23.2% 400 16.3% 16.7% 14.8% 30

3 Tyler Stephenson 56 C +525 · 24 0.179 91.1 12.3% 15.8% 392 10.6% 30.0% 19.8% 22

4 Jj Bleday 53 C +500 COOL 31 0.212 88.5 10.1% 16.7% 389 20.0% 0.0% 14.1% 32

5 Eugenio Suarez 51 C +425 COOL 39 0.210 88.3 11.1% 21.9% 396 0.0% 0.0% 25.1% 21

6 Matt Mclain 47 D +700 COOL 65 0.161 88.4 9.6% 12.5% 391 14.3% 0.0% 13.6% 30

7 Dane Myers 37 D — COOL 125 0.113 89.3 4.3% 10.3% 384 6.5% 14.3% 8.0% 22

vs Chase Burns · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 58 C +280 COOL 10 0.246 93.2 11.1% 25.7%vs RHP 407 18.2% 0.0% 18.9% 20

2 Max Muncy 58 C +400 COOL 11 0.237 90.4 10.2% 25.7%vs RHP 411 21.5% 15.4% 18.3% 42

3 Mookie Betts 45 D +500 COOL 60 0.171 90.1 7.6% 16.2%vs RHP 389 12.0% 16.7% 9.5% 39

4 Freddie Freeman 43 D +525 COOL 68 0.159 89.6 8.0% 13.8%vs RHP 399 10.1% 8.3% 10.6% 26

5 Tommy Edman 40 D +750 · 87 0.141 88.1 6.6% 5.0%vs RHP 396 9.5% 16.7% 9.2% 36

6 Teoscar Hernandez 39 D +425 WARM 91 0.147 90.2 9.1% 14.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 28

7 Kyle Tucker 38 D +525 COOL 101 0.131 88.8 6.6% 10.8%vs RHP 391 7.5% 9.1% 8.4% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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