TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.92×

LAA @ BOS

Fenway Park · 1:35p · 9 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph cross 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

1:35p

-5 ↑

2:35p

-4 ↑

3:35p

-4 ↑

4:35p

-3 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 5:35p window peaks -3

Best of game Jarren Duran conv 15 · vs Rodriguez ⟷ Vaughn Grissom conv 14 · vs Proxy → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 74

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jarren Duran +625 D ●●○○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +400 C ●●○○○

3 Caleb Durbin +750 D ●○○○○

FADE BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 37

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Vaughn Grissom +950 D ●●○○○

2 Zach Neto +525 D ●○○○○

3 Josh Lowe +850 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 12.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Rodriguez Edge +400 0.207 · 89.8 · 10.5% 15.4% 11.9% F B O C 53

· LAA Mike Trout vs Proxy +525 0.180 · 89.9 · 15.4% 0.0% 9.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Rodriguez Edge +625 0.154 · 90.0 · 9.2% 16.7% 13.0% F B O D 46

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Proxy +950 0.142 · 87.9 · 7.3% 16.7% 12.1% F B O D 38

· LAA Zach Neto vs Proxy +525 0.192 · 89.7 · 11.4% 9.1% 10.1% F B O D 49

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Proxy +850 0.150 · 88.6 · 8.0% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 39

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Rodriguez +750 0.132 · 83.4 · 4.8% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 33

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.150 · 87.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 40

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Proxy +850 0.116 · 87.1 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 53.7% ← leak OFF 25.4% BRK 20.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.1% 11.1% 15.0% 12.0% C 53 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L Edge

11.4% 6.5% 8.2% 9.4% D 46 +625

Andruw Monasterio R

6.9% 10.5% 6.1% 6.9% D 40 —

128

Caleb Durbin R

2.9% 2.5% 1.9% 2.6% D 33 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.7% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Grissom Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Rodriguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph cross 76°F open

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

70°F

1:35p

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

72°F

2:35p

-4

↑

8 mph · cross

75°F

3:35p

-4

↑

8 mph · cross

77°F

4:35p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

5:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 76°F, wind 8 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 51 C +525 · 40 0.180 89.9 15.4% 16.4% 409 13.2% 0.0% 9.8% 30

2 Zach Neto 49 D +525 WARM 54 0.192 89.7 11.4% 13.9% 404 15.6% 9.1% 10.1% 25

3 Josh Lowe 39 D +850 COOL 112 0.150 88.6 8.0% 13.6% 394 10.1% 9.1% 9.3% 17

4 Vaughn Grissom 38 D +950 WARM 120 0.142 87.9 7.3% 11.4% 391 9.2% 16.7% 12.1% 36

5 Oswald Peraza 31 D +850 COOL 146 0.116 87.1 6.4% 12.1% 386 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% 12

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 53 C +400 · 23 0.207 89.8 10.5% 14.9%vs RHP 406 15.8% 15.4% 11.9% 37

2 Jarren Duran 46 D +625 WARM 49 0.154 90.0 9.2% 27.4%vs RHP 400 13.5% 16.7% 13.0% 32

3 Andruw Monasterio 40 D — COOL 88 0.150 87.8 7.8% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.2% 0.0% 7.4% 17

4 Caleb Durbin 33 D +750 COOL 128 0.132 83.4 4.8% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.2% 0.0% 8.5% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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