TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ MIL

Neutral air · 1.01×

CHC @ MIL

American Family Field · 2:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph in 80°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-10 ↑

1:10p

-10 ↑

2:10p

-9 ↑

3:10p

-9 ↑

4:10p

-8 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks -8

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 25 · vs Boyd ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 29 · vs Gasser → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 91

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +400 C ●●●●○

2 William Contreras +575 D ●●○○○

3 Jake Bauers +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 24

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Carson Kelly +575 D ●●●○○

3 Alex Bregman +575 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 13.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Gasser +350 0.289 · 90.5 · 9.2% 30.8% 26.4% F B O C+ 62

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Boyd Edge +400 0.194 · 91.9 · 10.8% 25.0% 24.2% F B O C 54

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Boyd +425 0.217 · 92.4 · 11.2% 11.1% 11.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Gasser Edge +575 0.128 · 87.3 · 5.9% 30.0% 14.4% F B O D 38

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Gasser Edge +575 0.183 · 88.1 · 6.1% 23.1% 19.8% F B O D 44

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Gasser Edge +425 0.210 · 88.4 · 8.1% 15.4% 15.4% F B O D 49

· MIL William Contreras vs Boyd Edge +575 0.136 · 90.2 · 8.7% 18.2% 9.1% F B O D 42

· CHC Michael Busch vs Gasser +575 0.155 · 88.4 · 7.6% 15.4% 10.2% F B O D 42

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.195 · 89.2 · 8.6% 11.1% 11.7% F B O D 47

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Boyd Edge +950 0.132 · 88.8 · 6.2% 12.5% 7.7% F B O D 36

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Boyd +750 0.147 · 89.2 · 9.6% 11.1% 7.5% F B O D 42

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Boyd +750 0.167 · 90.2 · 8.2% 9.1% 7.2% F B O D 43

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Gasser Edge — 0.095 · 86.0 · 3.0% 7.7% 7.3% F B O D 27

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Boyd +700 0.149 · 93.1 · 10.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 43

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Boyd — 0.095 · 87.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.8% ← leak BRK 25.0% OFF 9.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

11.6% 16.8% 12.8% 13.3% C+ 62 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.8% 8.9% 10.3% 10.0% D 49 +425

Ian Happ S Edge

15.0% 14.0% 2.4% 11.5% D 47 —

Alex Bregman R Edge

4.3% 8.5% 7.5% 5.7% D 44 +575

Michael Busch L

11.9% 5.4% 1.9% 9.0% D 42 +575

100

Carson Kelly R Edge

6.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5.6% D 38 +575

147

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.5% 0.8% 1.8% 1.4% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.8% usage) carries Gasser's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.6% ← leak BRK 28.0% OFF 26.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jackson Chourio R Edge

13.8% 11.5% 6.5% 12.1% C 54 +400

Jake Bauers L

14.2% 12.0% 12.2% 13.3% C 54 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L

14.3% 10.4% 5.4% 11.8% D 43 +700

Brice Turang L

8.1% 9.6% 1.5% 7.3% D 43 +750

William Contreras R Edge

8.6% 9.5% 0.0% 7.9% D 42 +575

Christian Yelich L

9.4% 8.5% 11.8% 9.5% D 42 +750

110

Joey Ortiz R Edge

4.3% 5.3% 0.0% 4.3% D 36 +950

139

David Hamilton L

3.3% 5.5% 0.0% 3.3% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.6% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Bregman Kelly Chourio Contreras

Legend

attack side — vs Boyd fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong +350 · 62

Jackson Chourio +400 · 54

Alex Bregman +575 · 44

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph in 80°F retractable

-10

↑

8 mph · in

74°F

1:10p

-10

↑

8 mph · in

75°F

2:10p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

77°F

3:10p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

78°F

4:10p

-8

↑

7 mph · in

74°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 80°F, wind 8 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 62 C+ +350 WARM 4 0.289 90.5 9.2% 33.3%vs LHP 397 22.9% 30.8% 26.4% 38

2 Seiya Suzuki 49 D +425 · 33 0.210 88.4 8.1% 32.0%vs LHP 406 16.5% 15.4% 15.4% 40

3 Ian Happ 47 D — COOL 43 0.195 89.2 8.6% 14.8%vs LHP 402 17.5% 11.1% 11.7% 27

4 Alex Bregman 44 D +575 WARM 63 0.183 88.1 6.1% 20.0%vs LHP 390 12.8% 23.1% 19.8% 45

5 Michael Busch 42 D +575 WARM 78 0.155 88.4 7.6% 14.6%vs LHP 403 13.2% 15.4% 10.2% 32

6 Carson Kelly 38 D +575 WARM 100 0.128 87.3 5.9% 21.4%vs LHP 403 8.8% 30.0% 14.4% 25

7 Nico Hoerner 27 D — WARM 147 0.095 86.0 3.0% 9.7%vs LHP 383 5.7% 7.7% 7.3% 43

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Chourio 54 C +400 COOL 18 0.194 91.9 10.8% 30.4%vs LHP 399 16.5% 25.0% 24.2% 41

2 Jake Bauers 54 C +425 COOL 20 0.217 92.4 11.2% 21.4%vs LHP 402 19.1% 11.1% 11.9% 14

3 Garrett Mitchell 43 D +700 COOL 70 0.149 93.1 10.5% 16.7%vs LHP 415 7.1% 0.0% 7.7% 21

4 Brice Turang 43 D +750 COOL 71 0.167 90.2 8.2% 5.0%vs LHP 407 10.3% 9.1% 7.2% 28

5 William Contreras 42 D +575 · 80 0.136 90.2 8.7% 10.0%vs LHP 413 10.1% 18.2% 9.1% 35

6 Christian Yelich 42 D +750 · 81 0.147 89.2 9.6% 15.4%vs LHP 400 8.2% 11.1% 7.5% 29

7 Joey Ortiz 36 D +950 · 110 0.132 88.8 6.2% 11.1%vs LHP 390 7.4% 12.5% 7.7% 27

8 David Hamilton 30 D — COOL 139 0.095 87.0 5.5% 20.0%vs LHP 386 4.3% 0.0% 7.1% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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