TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ SD

Petco Park is live · 1.23×

WSH @ SD

Petco Park · 5:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 12 mph cross 96°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

2:10p

-9 ↑

3:10p

-9 ↑

4:10p

-9 ↑

5:10p

-10 ↑

6:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at -9

Best of game Ty France conv 19 · vs Irvin ⟷ Cj Abrams conv 22 · vs Pivetta → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Jake Irvin RHP · WSH

leak 95

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ty France +475 C ●●●○○

2 Manny Machado +390 C ●●○○○

3 Jackson Merrill +370 D ●○○○○

FADE Nick Pivetta RHP · SD

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.76 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cj Abrams +425 D ●●●○○

2 Daylen Lile +525 D ●●●○○

3 James Wood +390 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 9.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France ✶ COOL vs Irvin +475 0.221 · 91.9 · 10.1% 16.7% 22.1% F B O C 54

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Irvin +390 0.187 · 90.4 · 10.2% 18.2% 13.2% F B O C 50

· WSH James Wood vs Pivetta Edge +390 0.266 · 95.2 · 10.7% 0.0% 12.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Pivetta Edge +425 0.230 · 89.6 · 7.5% 33.3% 10.9% F B O D 45

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Pivetta Edge +525 0.182 · 88.7 · 7.2% 30.8% 12.4% F B O D 40

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Irvin Edge +370 0.175 · 91.0 · 11.2% 8.3% 10.6% F B O D 49

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Irvin Edge +750 0.074 · 87.1 · 5.6% 9.1% 6.7% F B O D 29

· SD Fernando Tatis COOL vs Irvin — 0.164 · 92.9 · 11.6% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 43

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Irvin +625 0.102 · 89.2 · 7.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Irvin +850 0.108 · 87.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Pivetta +950 0.145 · 87.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 29

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Pivetta +575 0.145 · 90.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 33

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.085 · 82.5 · 4.3% 0.0% 4.7% F B O D 21

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Pivetta Edge — 0.035 · 85.0 · 2.2% 0.0% 4.1% F B O D 13

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.7% ← leak BRK 31.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

James Wood L Edge

20.1% 27.7% 20.9% C 52 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cj Abrams L Edge

9.9% 9.2% 9.8% D 45 +425

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.9% 13.5% 9.0% D 40 +525

131

Dylan Crews R

6.4% 16.0% 8.6% D 33 +575

143

Jacob Young R

7.6% 4.4% 6.1% D 29 +950

151

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.5% 3.8% 3.4% D 21 —

152

Nasim Nunez S Edge

1.6% 0.0% 0.9% D 13 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.7% usage) carries Pivetta's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.2% ← leak BRK 32.7% OFF 8.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R

9.0% 9.4% 8.8% 9.1% C 54 +475

Manny Machado R

11.4% 5.5% 8.5% 9.4% C 50 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.7% 11.2% 8.8% 11.5% D 49 +370

Fernando Tatis R

11.2% 14.2% 17.0% 12.7% D 43 —

115

Xander Bogaerts R

7.0% 4.3% 3.1% 6.0% D 35 +625

133

Freddy Fermin R

3.6% 4.7% 8.3% 4.2% D 32 +850

144

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

3.3% 2.3% 3.0% 3.1% D 29 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.2% usage) carries Irvin's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abrams Lile France Machado

Legend

attack side — vs Irvin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 2:10p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 12 mph cross 96°F open

-9

↑

12 mph · cross

96°F

2:10p · peak

-9

↑

11 mph · cross

95°F

3:10p

-9

↑

11 mph · cross

93°F

4:10p

-9

↑

10 mph · in

92°F

5:10p

-10

↑

10 mph · in

89°F

6:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 96°F, wind 12 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Pivetta · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.76 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 52 C +390 · 26 0.266 95.2 10.7% 36.2%vs RHP 413 25.0% 0.0% 12.5% 9

2 Cj Abrams 45 D +425 COOL 61 0.230 89.6 7.5% 28.1%vs RHP 396 33.3% 33.3% 10.9% 26

3 Daylen Lile 40 D +525 HOT 86 0.182 88.7 7.2% 14.4%vs RHP 400 11.8% 30.8% 12.4% 34

4 Dylan Crews 33 D +575 COOL 131 0.145 90.4 7.0% 11.6%vs RHP 407 13.0% 0.0% 5.6% 27

5 Jacob Young 29 D +950 COOL 143 0.145 87.7 5.8% 12.1%vs RHP 399 6.8% 0.0% 5.7% 22

6 Jorbit Vivas 21 D — COOL 151 0.085 82.5 4.3% 6.4%vs RHP 392 2.5% 0.0% 4.7% 26

7 Nasim Nunez 13 D — WARM 152 0.035 85.0 2.2% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 24

vs Jake Irvin · RHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 54 C +475 COOL 19 0.221 91.9 10.1% 27.8%vs RHP 390 16.1% 16.7% 22.1% 29

2 Manny Machado 50 C +390 COOL 30 0.187 90.4 10.2% 26.3%vs RHP 398 17.6% 18.2% 13.2% 29

3 Jackson Merrill 49 D +370 · 37 0.175 91.0 11.2% 20.0%vs RHP 412 15.6% 8.3% 10.6% 33

4 Fernando Tatis 43 D — COOL 66 0.164 92.9 11.6% 14.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 37

5 Xander Bogaerts 35 D +625 WARM 115 0.102 89.2 7.9% 15.6%vs RHP 400 7.5% 0.0% 8.2% 28

6 Freddy Fermin 32 D +850 HOT 133 0.108 87.6 6.6% 6.5%vs RHP 382 2.2% 0.0% 7.1% 11

7 Jake Cronenworth 29 D +750 COOL 144 0.074 87.1 5.6% 7.5%vs RHP 382 3.2% 9.1% 6.7% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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