TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.35×

AZ @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 10 mph slight_out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:10p

+7 ↑

2:10p

+7 ↑

3:10p

+7 ↑

4:10p

+5 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +7

Best of game Ketel Marte conv 24 · vs Cameron ⟷ Carter Jensen conv 29 · vs Proxy → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 67

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ketel Marte — C ●●●●○

2 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll — C ●●○○○

FADE AZ Bullpen Proxy · AZ

leak 40

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carter Jensen — C+ ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino — D ●●●○○

3 Jac Caglianone — C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 21.4% · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Proxy — 0.210 · 91.4 · 11.2% 36.4% 21.4% F B O C+ 61

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.198 · 90.1 · 8.9% 25.0% 23.0% F B O C 53

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Proxy — 0.211 · 93.1 · 13.7% 10.0% 14.4% F B O C+ 60

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Cameron — 0.227 · 91.8 · 9.8% 7.7% 14.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Proxy — 0.139 · 89.7 · 8.0% 27.3% 9.0% F B O D 46

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Cameron Edge — 0.168 · 89.3 · 8.0% 16.7% 13.9% F B O D 47

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.185 · 84.7 · 7.0% 7.7% 12.7% F B O D 46

· KC Nick Loftin vs Proxy — 0.149 · 87.1 · 4.4% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 40

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Cameron Edge — 0.151 · 90.8 · 8.8% 8.3% 7.1% F B O D 44

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.112 · 87.0 · 7.3% 9.1% 6.3% F B O D 38

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Proxy — 0.169 · 92.3 · 11.8% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 49

· KC Michael Massey vs Proxy — 0.164 · 89.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 42

· KC Salvador Perez vs Proxy — 0.151 · 88.8 · 10.3% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 44

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.132 · 87.4 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 35

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Proxy — 0.117 · 88.4 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 36

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.115 · 87.4 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.8% BRK 29.2% OFF 20.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Corbin Carroll L

12.4% 13.2% 8.2% 11.7% C 55 —

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.4% 8.6% 3.4% 10.0% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

8.4% 8.0% 8.0% 8.2% D 47 —

Nolan Arenado R Edge

9.1% 1.7% 4.9% 6.1% D 46 —

Tim Tawa R Edge

9.6% 10.0% 12.0% 10.1% D 44 —

104

Ryan Waldschmidt R Edge

7.6% 8.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 38 —

114

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.3% 2.6% 1.2% 3.2% D 35 —

130

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.6% 1.2% 1.9% 2.8% D 33 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Cameron's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for AZ Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Moreno Jensen Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Cameron fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Carter Jensen — · 61

Ketel Marte — · 53

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 10 mph slight_out 87°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

83°F

1:10p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

86°F

2:10p · peak

↑

10 mph · slight_out

89°F

3:10p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

91°F

4:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

88°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 87°F, wind 10 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 55 C — · 17 0.227 91.8 9.8% 15.6%vs LHP 402 12.9% 7.7% 14.6% 31

2 Ketel Marte 53 C — COOL 22 0.198 90.1 8.9% 32.1%vs LHP 408 15.5% 25.0% 23.0% 13

3 Gabriel Moreno 47 D — · 42 0.168 89.3 8.0% 14.8%vs LHP 400 10.4% 16.7% 13.9% 30

4 Nolan Arenado 46 D — COOL 52 0.185 84.7 7.0% 24.0%vs LHP 389 15.0% 7.7% 12.7% 35

5 Tim Tawa 44 D — WARM 64 0.151 90.8 8.8% 0.0%vs LHP 398 8.9% 8.3% 7.1% 21

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 38 D — COOL 104 0.112 87.0 7.3% 0.0%vs LHP 415 3.9% 9.1% 6.3% 20

7 Ildemaro Vargas 35 D — COOL 114 0.132 87.4 5.0% 20.7%vs LHP 396 4.7% 0.0% 8.7% 33

8 Geraldo Perdomo 33 D — COOL 130 0.115 87.4 4.6% 3.7%vs LHP 383 6.2% 0.0% 6.7% 37

vs AZ Bullpen Proxy 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 61 C+ — WARM 12 0.210 91.4 11.2% 14.8% 399 16.7% 36.4% 21.4% 31

2 Jac Caglianone 60 C+ — COOL 15 0.211 93.1 13.7% 25.3% 416 14.4% 10.0% 14.4% 31

3 Bobby Witt 49 D — COOL 55 0.169 92.3 11.8% 11.7% 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 37

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 46 D — · 74 0.139 89.7 8.0% 8.0% 396 11.7% 27.3% 9.0% 34

5 Salvador Perez 44 D — WARM 84 0.151 88.8 10.3% 11.9% 405 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 36

6 Michael Massey 42 D — WARM 97 0.164 89.7 6.0% 10.4% 399 7.4% 0.0% 9.3% 16

7 Nick Loftin 40 D — · 109 0.149 87.1 4.4% 7.5% 397 9.3% 11.1% 8.0% 28

8 Isaac Collins 36 D — COOL 132 0.117 88.4 5.3% 5.4% 394 5.1% 0.0% 6.8% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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