TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.35×

TOR @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 10:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 4 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

7:05p

+11 ↑

8:05p

+11 ↑

9:05p

+10 ↑

10:05p

+9 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +12

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 24 · vs Lopez ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 26 · vs Cease → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 78

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 George Springer +425 C ●●●○○

3 Nathan Lukes +650 D ●●○○○

FADE Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 8

0.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof +575 C ●●●●○

2 Lawrence Butler +575 D ●●○○○

3 Jonah Heim +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Cease +575 0.214 · 89.2 · 7.2% 25.0% 26.4% F B O C 56

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Lopez Edge +305 0.212 · 90.5 · 8.9% 18.2% 29.5% F B O C+ 63

· TOR George Springer vs Lopez Edge +425 0.165 · 88.5 · 6.4% 22.2% 16.4% F B O C 52

· TOR Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Lopez — 0.160 · 90.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Cease Edge +575 0.142 · 90.0 · 6.5% 15.4% 16.6% F B O D 45

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Cease Edge +625 0.177 · 88.0 · 6.0% 16.7% 14.7% F B O D 46

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Lopez +650 0.122 · 87.1 · 4.0% 18.2% 11.1% F B O D 43

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Cease Edge +850 0.107 · 86.7 · 3.2% 12.5% 9.9% F B O D 35

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Cease +850 0.114 · 91.0 · 6.2% 7.7% 8.7% F B O D 40

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Lopez Edge — 0.095 · 90.5 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 42

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Lopez Edge +750 0.111 · 84.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 39

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Lopez — 0.110 · 85.5 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Lopez Edge +950 0.113 · 86.2 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.8% ← leak BRK 33.6% OFF 8.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

13.5% 9.9% 20.7% 13.0% C+ 63 +305

George Springer R Edge

6.3% 7.8% 6.1% 6.7% C 52 +425

Jesús Sánchez L

10.7% 17.7% 0.0% 11.1% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Nathan Lukes L

1.1% 3.0% 5.8% 2.3% D 43 +650

Vladimir Guerrero R Edge

6.2% 9.7% 1.8% 6.7% D 42 —

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 2.1% D 39 +750

Myles Straw R Edge

3.8% 0.0% 4.8% 3.1% D 39 +950

Andres Gimenez L

3.8% 2.0% 4.0% 3.3% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.8% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 44.8% ← leak BRK 43.4% OFF 11.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Zack Gelof R

10.9% 6.4% 14.3% 9.7% C 56 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jonah Heim S Edge

6.4% 3.6% 10.5% 6.7% D 46 +625

Lawrence Butler L Edge

8.2% 10.3% 3.3% 7.6% D 45 +575

Henry Bolte R

7.5% 8.2% 3.6% 7.2% D 40 +850

113

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.4% 2.5% 2.7% 1.9% D 35 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.8% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Lukes Gelof Heim Butler

Legend

attack side — vs Lopez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Zack Gelof +575 · 56

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 4 mph out 79°F open

+12

↑

4 mph · out

79°F

7:05p · peak

+11

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

8:05p

+11

↑

4 mph · out

73°F

9:05p

+10

↑

3 mph · out

71°F

10:05p

↑

2 mph · out

69°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 79°F, wind 4 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 63 C+ +305 · 3 0.212 90.5 8.9% 22.9%vs LHP 400 17.5% 18.2% 29.5% 25

2 George Springer 52 C +425 WARM 27 0.165 88.5 6.4% 11.1%vs LHP 395 11.1% 22.2% 16.4% 30

3 Jesús Sánchez 51 C — COOL 29 0.160 90.9 8.2% 0.0%vs LHP 398 9.2% 0.0% 8.7% 10

4 Nathan Lukes 43 D +650 · 67 0.122 87.1 4.0% 20.0%vs LHP 382 8.1% 18.2% 11.1% 36

5 Vladimir Guerrero 42 D — WARM 79 0.095 90.5 6.4% 11.1%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 41

6 Ernie Clement 39 D +750 COOL 94 0.111 84.0 3.6% 9.3%vs LHP 376 6.8% 0.0% 9.4% 34

7 Myles Straw 39 D +950 COOL 95 0.113 86.2 4.4% 5.3%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 22

8 Andres Gimenez 38 D — WARM 99 0.110 85.5 4.5% 12.5%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 21

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 56 C +575 WARM 16 0.214 89.2 7.2% 25.5%vs RHP 397 21.1% 25.0% 26.4% 37

2 Jonah Heim 46 D +625 WARM 48 0.177 88.0 6.0% 7.7%vs RHP 409 9.4% 16.7% 14.7% 34

3 Lawrence Butler 45 D +575 WARM 58 0.142 90.0 6.5% 18.2%vs RHP 408 8.9% 15.4% 16.6% 28

4 Henry Bolte 40 D +850 · 85 0.114 91.0 6.2% 4.3%vs RHP 401 9.5% 7.7% 8.7% 34

5 Jeff Mcneil 35 D +850 · 113 0.107 86.7 3.2% 12.9%vs RHP 380 6.7% 12.5% 9.9% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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