TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ DET

Neutral air · 1.02×

MIN @ DET

Comerica Park · 3:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 7 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

3:10p

-1 ↑

4:10p

-2 ↑

5:10p

-3 ↑

6:10p

-4 ↑

7:10p

best window is early — 4:10p at -1

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 25 · vs Melton ⟷ Spencer Torkelson conv 19 · vs Proxy → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 81

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens — C ●●●●○

2 Brooks Lee — D ●●●○○

3 Josh Bell — D ●●○○○

FADE MIN Bullpen Proxy

leak 42

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●○○

2 Riley Greene — C ●●●○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 11.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Melton Edge — 0.228 · 92.4 · 9.0% 25.0% 24.6% F B O C 54

· — Spencer Torkelson vs Proxy — 0.189 · 89.3 · 12.4% 20.0% 17.9% F B O C 53

· — Riley Greene vs Proxy — 0.188 · 90.5 · 15.2% 16.7% 17.5% F B O C 56

· — Dillon Dingler COOL vs Proxy — 0.215 · 88.5 · 9.9% 0.0% 12.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Melton Edge — 0.184 · 88.3 · 5.3% 25.0% 11.9% F B O D 43

· MIN Josh Bell vs Melton Edge — 0.167 · 89.9 · 8.0% 9.1% 10.6% F B O D 42

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Melton Edge — 0.154 · 87.9 · 7.1% 10.0% 9.2% F B O D 39

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Melton — 0.168 · 89.8 · 8.7% 8.3% 9.7% F B O D 43

· — Hao-Yu Lee vs Proxy — 0.149 · 89.7 · 8.6% 7.7% 7.8% F B O D 42

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Melton — 0.115 · 85.5 · 4.9% 8.3% 6.9% F B O D 31

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Melton Edge — 0.102 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 31

· — Colt Keith COOL vs Proxy — 0.142 · 89.0 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

· — Gleyber Torres vs Proxy — 0.114 · 86.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 34

· — Kevin Mcgonigle vs Proxy — 0.137 · 88.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 38

· — Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Proxy — 0.095 · 85.6 · 2.1% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.6% ← leak BRK 25.1% OFF 11.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 19.2% 11.9% 11.9% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

13.8% 7.1% 9.1% 11.3% D 43 —

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.2% 0.9% 0.9% 4.0% D 43 —

Josh Bell S Edge

9.8% 12.2% 5.8% 9.4% D 42 —

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.6% 8.3% 6.2% 7.5% D 39 —

134

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 11.1% 5.7% 6.4% D 31 —

136

Luke Keaschall R

4.6% 2.8% 0.0% 3.6% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.6% usage) carries Melton's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for MIN Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lee Greene Torkelson

Legend

attack side — vs Melton fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kody Clemens — · 54

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 3:10p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 7 mph slight_out 77°F open

-2

↑

7 mph · slight_out

74°F

3:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

4:10p · peak

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

5:10p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

6:10p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

72°F

7:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 77°F, wind 7 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Troy Melton · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 54 C — · 21 0.228 92.4 9.0% 20.4%vs RHP 391 17.7% 25.0% 24.6% 30

2 Royce Lewis 43 D — COOL 72 0.168 89.8 8.7% 16.1%vs RHP 402 14.1% 8.3% 9.7% 35

3 Brooks Lee 43 D — WARM 73 0.184 88.3 5.3% 21.1%vs RHP 374 16.8% 25.0% 11.9% 43

4 Josh Bell 42 D — · 82 0.167 89.9 8.0% 20.0%vs RHP 410 11.4% 9.1% 10.6% 34

5 Trevor Larnach 39 D — WARM 96 0.154 87.9 7.1% 14.8%vs RHP 395 9.1% 10.0% 9.2% 23

6 Victor Caratini 31 D — WARM 134 0.102 89.5 6.6% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 4

7 Luke Keaschall 31 D — WARM 136 0.115 85.5 4.9% 10.3%vs RHP 378 7.3% 8.3% 6.9% 42

vs MIN Bullpen Proxy 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene 56 C — WARM 25 0.188 90.5 15.2% 15.3% 401 12.3% 16.7% 17.5% 12

2 Spencer Torkelson 53 C — · 32 0.189 89.3 12.4% 16.8% 392 14.8% 20.0% 17.9% 21

3 Dillon Dingler 50 C — COOL 46 0.215 88.5 9.9% 17.7% 398 17.6% 0.0% 12.2% 29

4 Hao-Yu Lee 42 D — WARM 98 0.149 89.7 8.6% 12.1% 399 15.8% 7.7% 7.8% 26

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 38 D — · 121 0.137 88.0 6.9% 7.1% 397 18.2% 0.0% 6.7% 40

6 Colt Keith 37 D — COOL 126 0.142 89.0 7.3% 9.7% 385 6.2% 0.0% 7.2% 11

7 Gleyber Torres 34 D — WARM 137 0.114 86.4 6.5% 11.4% 393 8.5% 0.0% 6.8% 28

8 Zach Mckinstry 25 D — COOL 149 0.095 85.6 2.1% 4.3% 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.