TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.37×

SF @ ATL

Truist Park · 6:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph cross 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:05p

+3 ↑

7:05p

+2 ↑

8:05p

+1 ↑

9:05p

+1 ↑

10:05p

best window is early — 6:05p at +4

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 30 · vs Elder ⟷ Drake Baldwin conv 15 · vs Molina → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Bryce Elder RHP · ATL

leak 74

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +370 C ●●●○○

3 Drew Gilbert +625 D ●●●○○

FADE Anthony Molina RHP

leak 46

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Drake Baldwin +425 C ●●○○○

2 Matt Olson +320 C+ ●●○○○

3 Michael Harris — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 11.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Elder Edge +290 0.234 · 92.8 · 8.4% 30.8% 30.1% F B O C+ 62

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Elder Edge +370 0.190 · 92.5 · 8.7% 20.0% 21.4% F B O C 56

· — Drake Baldwin vs Molina Edge +425 0.179 · 91.8 · 9.7% 15.4% 13.7% F B O C 53

· — Matt Olson vs Molina Edge +320 0.271 · 92.6 · 10.6% 7.7% 18.5% F B O C+ 64

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Elder Edge +625 0.147 · 86.8 · 5.9% 20.0% 16.8% F B O D 44

· — Michael Harris COOL vs Molina Edge — 0.200 · 90.4 · 8.8% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 47

· — Ronald Acuna COOL vs Molina — 0.173 · 90.3 · 9.8% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 46

· — Dominic Smith COOL vs Molina Edge — 0.124 · 87.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 40

· — Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Molina Edge +700 0.149 · 90.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 43

· — Ozzie Albies COOL vs Molina Edge +625 0.160 · 86.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 42

· — Austin Riley COOL vs Molina +475 0.140 · 91.4 · 9.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 45

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Elder Edge +950 0.132 · 87.3 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· — Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Molina +950 0.120 · 86.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.3% ← leak BRK 23.0% OFF 11.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.7% 10.2% 7.2% 11.0% C+ 62 +290

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

11.3% 12.2% 13.9% 11.9% C 56 +370

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Drew Gilbert L Edge

6.2% 7.1% 0.0% 5.5% D 44 +625

132

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% D 37 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.3% usage) carries Elder's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.4% ← leak BRK 31.6% OFF 25.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L Edge

17.4% 12.3% 12.8% 15.3% C+ 64 +320

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.5% 18.2% 5.9% 13.0% C 53 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Michael Harris L Edge

7.4% 12.7% 13.2% 10.2% D 47 —

Ronald Acuna R

13.6% 11.5% 13.3% 13.1% D 46 —

Austin Riley R

12.4% 13.5% 5.3% 11.9% D 45 +475

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.2% 7.1% 5.4% 6.9% D 43 +700

105

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.2% 1.6% 2.6% 4.0% D 42 +625

116

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.7% 7.1% 2.5% 5.5% D 40 —

145

Mauricio Dubon R

2.9% 5.2% 4.5% 3.8% D 34 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.4% usage) carries Molina's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Gilbert Olson Baldwin

Legend

attack side — vs Elder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Rafael Devers +290 · 62

Bryce Eldridge +370 · 56

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph cross 91°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

92°F

6:05p · peak

↑

4 mph · cross

89°F

7:05p

↑

3 mph · cross

85°F

8:05p

↑

3 mph · in

83°F

9:05p

↑

2 mph · in

80°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.37× 91°F, wind 6 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Elder · RHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 62 C+ +290 WARM 12 0.234 92.8 8.4% 27.9%vs RHP 399 19.5% 30.8% 30.1% 37

2 Bryce Eldridge 56 C +370 WARM 27 0.190 92.5 8.7% 19.6%vs RHP 399 19.4% 20.0% 21.4% 25

3 Drew Gilbert 44 D +625 HOT 92 0.147 86.8 5.9% 17.4%vs RHP 394 7.1% 20.0% 16.8% 22

4 Jung Hoo Lee 37 D +950 WARM 132 0.132 87.3 4.1% 11.6%vs RHP 382 5.6% 0.0% 8.2% 33

vs Anthony Molina · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 64 C+ +320 · 8 0.271 92.6 10.6% 32.5%vs RHP 408 23.9% 7.7% 18.5% 32

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C +425 · 45 0.179 91.8 9.7% 25.0%vs RHP 402 16.2% 15.4% 13.7% 37

3 Michael Harris 47 D — COOL 70 0.200 90.4 8.8% 23.3%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 40

4 Ronald Acuna 46 D — COOL 78 0.173 90.3 9.8% 22.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 29

5 Austin Riley 45 D +475 COOL 89 0.140 91.4 9.3% 17.1%vs RHP 407 8.9% 0.0% 9.0% 20

6 Mike Yastrzemski 43 D +700 COOL 97 0.149 90.7 7.0% 18.0%vs RHP 389 8.0% 0.0% 9.7% 17

7 Ozzie Albies 42 D +625 COOL 105 0.160 86.9 5.4% 12.6%vs RHP 386 13.1% 0.0% 9.6% 38

8 Dominic Smith 40 D — COOL 116 0.124 87.7 6.3% 14.5%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 10.2% 6

9 Mauricio Dubon 34 D +950 COOL 145 0.120 86.5 5.3% 9.4%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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