TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.80×

MIL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 10 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:40p

+9 ↑

7:40p

+9 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+9 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 26 · vs Holmes ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 40 · vs Harrison → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Clay Holmes RHP · NYM

leak 42

0.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +700 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jackson Chourio +750 C ●●●○○

3 Garrett Mitchell — D ●●○○○

FADE Kyle Harrison LHP · MIL

leak 5

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +425 B ●●●●●

2 Ian Happ — C ●●●●●

3 Alex Bregman — D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Harrison +425 0.285 · 90.2 · 9.6% 50.0% 30.1% F B O B 70

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Harrison Edge — 0.203 · 89.1 · 8.8% 33.3% 25.9% F B O C 58

· — Jake Bauers COOL vs Holmes Edge +700 0.227 · 92.4 · 8.9% 22.2% 29.4% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Harrison Edge — 0.215 · 88.5 · 8.5% 16.7% 25.2% F B O C 57

· — Jackson Chourio vs Holmes +750 0.196 · 92.0 · 8.7% 18.2% 20.5% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Harrison Edge — 0.166 · 88.1 · 6.0% 25.0% 21.1% F B O D 48

· CHC Michael Busch vs Harrison +575 0.153 · 88.3 · 8.0% 25.0% 15.2% F B O D 49

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Harrison Edge +625 0.126 · 87.2 · 6.1% 22.2% 15.1% F B O D 43

· — Garrett Mitchell vs Holmes Edge — 0.152 · 92.9 · 8.3% 12.5% 11.1% F B O D 47

· — Brice Turang COOL vs Holmes Edge +850 0.171 · 90.2 · 6.6% 9.1% 12.7% F B O D 47

· — Christian Yelich vs Holmes Edge — 0.145 · 88.9 · 7.7% 11.1% 10.0% F B O D 45

· — David Hamilton COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.094 · 86.9 · 4.4% 12.5% 7.5% F B O D 36

· — William Contreras vs Holmes +850 0.128 · 90.1 · 6.8% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 43

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Harrison Edge — 0.094 · 85.9 · 2.9% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 34

· — Sal Frelick COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.097 · 86.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33

· — Cooper Pratt COOL vs Holmes — 0.083 · 86.9 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.2% ← leak BRK 30.6% OFF 9.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

12.1% 16.2% 12.0% 13.2% B 70 +425

Neutral · 2

Ian Happ S Edge

14.9% 13.4% 2.5% 11.3% C 58 —

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.7% 9.2% 11.1% 10.2% C 57 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Michael Busch L

12.2% 4.8% 2.0% 9.2% D 49 +575

Alex Bregman R Edge

3.8% 8.0% 7.9% 5.3% D 48 —

109

Carson Kelly R Edge

6.2% 3.8% 5.3% 5.4% D 43 +625

174

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.3% 0.8% 1.9% 1.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.2% usage) carries Harrison's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.1% ← leak BRK 25.2% OFF 14.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.7% 12.3% 12.5% 13.7% C+ 61 +700

Jackson Chourio R

14.8% 12.1% 4.8% 12.6% C 56 +750

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Brice Turang L Edge

8.4% 10.1% 1.5% 7.6% D 47 +850

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

14.8% 10.5% 5.4% 12.1% D 47 —

Christian Yelich L Edge

10.1% 8.6% 12.1% 10.0% D 45 —

115

William Contreras R

8.5% 8.9% 0.0% 7.7% D 43 +850

157

David Hamilton L Edge

3.4% 5.9% 0.0% 3.5% D 36 —

160

Cooper Pratt R

5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% D 36 —

180

Sal Frelick L Edge

1.7% 4.9% 0.0% 2.3% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.1% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Busch Bregman Kelly Bauers Chourio

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong +425 · 70

Ian Happ — · 58

Jake Bauers +700 · 61

Alex Bregman — · 48

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 10 mph out 85°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

83°F

6:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

83°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

83°F

8:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

83°F

9:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

83°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.80× 85°F, wind 10 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Harrison · LHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 70 B +425 · 2 0.285 90.2 9.6% 34.4%vs LHP 397 22.6% 50.0% 30.1% 39

2 Ian Happ 58 C — COOL 23 0.203 89.1 8.8% 15.4%vs LHP 402 18.2% 33.3% 25.9% 27

3 Seiya Suzuki 57 C — COOL 25 0.215 88.5 8.5% 30.4%vs LHP 406 16.7% 16.7% 25.2% 31

4 Michael Busch 49 D +575 WARM 61 0.153 88.3 8.0% 15.0%vs LHP 401 13.1% 25.0% 15.2% 29

5 Alex Bregman 48 D — WARM 68 0.166 88.1 6.0% 15.2%vs LHP 390 11.9% 25.0% 21.1% 41

6 Carson Kelly 43 D +625 WARM 109 0.126 87.2 6.1% 19.2%vs LHP 406 8.3% 22.2% 15.1% 28

7 Nico Hoerner 34 D — WARM 174 0.094 85.9 2.9% 6.9%vs LHP 381 5.2% 0.0% 8.7% 41

vs Clay Holmes · RHP 0.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 61 C+ +700 COOL 17 0.227 92.4 8.9% 27.9%vs RHP 401 19.3% 22.2% 29.4% 14

2 Jackson Chourio 56 C +750 · 28 0.196 92.0 8.7% 19.4%vs RHP 399 16.7% 18.2% 20.5% 35

3 Brice Turang 47 D +850 COOL 76 0.171 90.2 6.6% 25.0%vs RHP 407 10.8% 9.1% 12.7% 30

4 Garrett Mitchell 47 D — WARM 77 0.152 92.9 8.3% 22.9%vs RHP 415 7.5% 12.5% 11.1% 21

5 Christian Yelich 45 D — WARM 98 0.145 88.9 7.7% 18.4%vs RHP 400 7.6% 11.1% 10.0% 29

6 William Contreras 43 D +850 · 115 0.128 90.1 6.8% 13.2%vs RHP 414 9.8% 10.0% 7.5% 37

7 David Hamilton 36 D — COOL 157 0.094 86.9 4.4% 5.7%vs RHP 386 4.5% 12.5% 7.5% 29

8 Cooper Pratt 36 D — COOL 160 0.083 86.9 4.2% 9.1%vs RHP 401 7.4% 0.0% 7.0% 19

9 Sal Frelick 33 D — COOL 180 0.097 86.0 3.6% 7.0%vs RHP 396 3.6% 0.0% 7.7% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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