TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ BOS

Neutral air · 1.00×

SEA @ BOS

Fenway Park · 6:45p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 8 mph slight_out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:45p

+5 ↑

7:45p

+6 ↑

8:45p

+5 ↑

9:45p

+5 ↑

10:45p

the 8:45p window peaks +6

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 19 · vs Kirby ⟷ Cal Raleigh conv 27 · vs Tolle → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 64

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +425 C ●●●○○

2 Jarren Duran +575 D ●●●○○

3 Wilyer Abreu +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 39

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cal Raleigh +330 D ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +475 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Kirby +425 0.244 · 89.7 · 9.5% 16.7% 21.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Tolle Edge +330 0.180 · 89.7 · 9.7% 36.4% 18.2% F B O D 47

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Kirby Edge +575 0.156 · 89.7 · 8.0% 22.2% 15.1% F B O D 42

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Tolle Edge +475 0.186 · 90.6 · 7.0% 16.7% 18.6% F B O D 43

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Kirby Edge +400 0.213 · 89.8 · 9.2% 15.4% 12.1% F B O D 48

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Tolle +575 0.223 · 91.2 · 9.0% 9.1% 17.8% F B O D 47

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Tolle +950 0.141 · 88.5 · 5.5% 9.1% 8.5% F B O D 33

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Tolle Edge +400 0.159 · 89.9 · 7.9% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 40

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Tolle — 0.129 · 87.8 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 29

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Kirby +750 0.165 · 86.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 36

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Kirby +950 0.137 · 83.6 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 30

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Tolle +850 0.097 · 87.3 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 27

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Kirby — 0.151 · 87.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 87.4% ← leak BRK 9.4% OFF 3.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Cal Raleigh S Edge

14.2% 16.7% 12.5% 14.4% D 47 +330

Dominic Canzone L

15.2% 10.5% 8.0% 12.4% D 47 +575

Randy Arozarena R Edge

7.9% 7.6% 6.3% 7.5% D 43 +475

117

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

10.4% 7.6% 10.6% 9.6% D 40 +400

152

Cole Young L

4.0% 9.5% 1.4% 4.7% D 33 +950

161

J.P. Crawford L

5.1% 6.9% 10.7% 6.2% D 29 —

165

Josh Naylor L

4.2% 7.7% 1.4% 4.5% D 27 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (87.4% usage) carries Tolle's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.0% ← leak BRK 39.0% OFF 8.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

10.8% 14.1% 22.0% 13.2% C 53 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.3% 15.6% 11.5% 12.4% D 48 +400

104

Jarren Duran L Edge

11.6% 8.4% 6.8% 9.7% D 42 +575

134

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.2% 6.5% 10.9% 5.3% D 36 +750

144

Andruw Monasterio R

7.0% 6.1% 10.5% 7.0% D 35 —

159

Caleb Durbin R

3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.7% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.0% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Canzone Arozarena Contreras Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Kirby fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Cal Raleigh +330 · 47

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 8 mph slight_out 75°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

78°F

6:45p

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

7:45p

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

8:45p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

76°F

9:45p

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 75°F, wind 8 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh 47 D +330 HOT 67 0.180 89.7 9.7% 25.0%vs LHP 385 15.5% 36.4% 18.2% 19

2 Dominic Canzone 47 D +575 COOL 68 0.223 91.2 9.0% 36.4%vs LHP 404 15.3% 9.1% 17.8% 29

3 Randy Arozarena 43 D +475 COOL 95 0.186 90.6 7.0% 24.0%vs LHP 386 14.4% 16.7% 18.6% 28

4 Julio Rodríguez 40 D +400 WARM 117 0.159 89.9 7.9% 22.5%vs LHP 404 15.9% 8.3% 9.2% 29

5 Cole Young 33 D +950 COOL 152 0.141 88.5 5.5% 11.8%vs LHP 383 11.5% 9.1% 8.5% 28

6 J.P. Crawford 29 D — WARM 161 0.129 87.8 6.4% 10.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 7

7 Josh Naylor 27 D +850 COOL 165 0.097 87.3 5.4% 11.1%vs LHP 392 6.2% 0.0% 7.8% 36

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 53 C +425 COOL 41 0.244 89.7 9.5% 31.1%vs RHP 405 19.2% 16.7% 21.2% 31

2 Wilyer Abreu 48 D +400 COOL 65 0.213 89.8 9.2% 16.5%vs RHP 406 16.5% 15.4% 12.1% 35

3 Jarren Duran 42 D +575 · 104 0.156 89.7 8.0% 28.1%vs RHP 399 13.5% 22.2% 15.1% 27

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 36 D +750 COOL 134 0.165 86.3 6.0% 16.0%vs RHP 382 12.1% 0.0% 9.3% 45

5 Andruw Monasterio 35 D — COOL 144 0.151 87.9 6.8% 2.1%vs RHP 390 10.3% 0.0% 6.8% 37

6 Caleb Durbin 30 D +950 COOL 159 0.137 83.6 4.2% 18.4%vs RHP 376 8.6% 0.0% 7.9% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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