TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.24×

NYY @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:38p

+5 ↑

7:38p

+4 ↑

8:38p

+3 ↑

9:38p

+1 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +6

Best of game Zach Neto conv 22 · vs Rodríguez ⟷ Paul Goldschmidt conv 29 · vs Ureña → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Elmer Rodríguez RHP · NYY

leak 77

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +425 D ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +850 D ●○○○○

3 Josh Lowe +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 10

0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Paul Goldschmidt — D ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +350 C ●●●○○

3 Trent Grisham +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 14.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Ureña Edge +350 0.271 · 92.2 · 9.0% 16.7% 16.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Ureña — 0.205 · 86.7 · 7.5% 40.0% 17.8% F B O D 45

· LAA Zach Neto vs Rodríguez +425 0.197 · 89.6 · 9.2% 27.3% 17.1% F B O D 49

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Ureña Edge +400 0.190 · 90.5 · 7.2% 16.7% 12.5% F B O D 41

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Ureña Edge +525 0.160 · 88.9 · 5.9% 12.5% 6.8% F B O D 34

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Rodríguez +850 0.139 · 87.9 · 7.0% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 35

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Rodríguez Edge +700 0.145 · 88.7 · 7.5% 8.3% 7.0% F B O D 37

· LAA Mike Trout vs Rodríguez +425 0.188 · 90.0 · 10.7% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 45

· NYY Jazz Chisholm vs Ureña Edge — 0.173 · 90.8 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 35

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Rodríguez — 0.121 · 87.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Ureña +950 0.133 · 83.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 26

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Ureña Edge +575 0.110 · 89.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.3% ← leak OFF 33.1% BRK 14.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

17.4% 11.5% 12.4% 14.9% C 54 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.3% 8.8% 4.5% 10.6% D 45 —

108

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.0% 6.8% 6.8% 9.6% D 41 +400

143

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

7.1% 6.8% 12.8% 8.9% D 35 —

147

Cody Bellinger L Edge

4.0% 8.5% 11.0% 6.3% D 34 +525

163

Austin Wells L Edge

8.4% 0.0% 5.0% 6.2% D 29 +575

167

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 26 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.3% usage) carries Ureña's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.3% BRK 26.6% OFF 8.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

14.3% 9.0% 8.3% 11.9% D 49 +425

Mike Trout R

15.4% 20.4% 10.7% 15.9% D 45 +425

133

Josh Lowe L Edge

10.5% 4.4% 5.3% 7.9% D 37 +700

142

Vaughn Grissom R

8.3% 6.7% 2.4% 6.8% D 35 +850

155

Oswald Peraza R

6.1% 6.8% 10.0% 6.9% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Rodríguez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Neto

Legend

attack side — vs Rodríguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph out 79°F open

↑

10 mph · out

79°F

6:38p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

76°F

7:38p

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

8:38p

↑

8 mph · out

72°F

9:38p

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 79°F, wind 10 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 54 C +350 · 37 0.271 92.2 9.0% 30.9%vs RHP 394 24.0% 16.7% 16.7% 32

2 Paul Goldschmidt 45 D — WARM 82 0.205 86.7 7.5% 18.4%vs RHP 392 17.6% 40.0% 17.8% 9

3 Trent Grisham 41 D +400 COOL 108 0.190 90.5 7.2% 21.4%vs RHP 388 13.6% 16.7% 12.5% 30

4 Jazz Chisholm 35 D — · 143 0.173 90.8 7.0% 21.7%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 28

5 Cody Bellinger 34 D +525 COOL 147 0.160 88.9 5.9% 11.4%vs RHP 378 9.4% 12.5% 6.8% 23

6 Austin Wells 29 D +575 COOL 163 0.110 89.0 5.8% 13.3%vs RHP 387 8.3% 0.0% 5.8% 19

7 Jose Caballero 26 D +950 · 167 0.133 83.8 4.7% 19.1%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 27

vs Elmer Rodríguez · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 49 D +425 · 57 0.197 89.6 9.2% 18.4%vs RHP 404 16.3% 27.3% 17.1% 38

2 Mike Trout 45 D +425 · 81 0.188 90.0 10.7% 22.1%vs RHP 409 13.9% 0.0% 10.7% 27

3 Josh Lowe 37 D +700 COOL 133 0.145 88.7 7.5% 17.2%vs RHP 392 9.6% 8.3% 7.0% 22

4 Vaughn Grissom 35 D +850 COOL 142 0.139 87.9 7.0% 19.1%vs RHP 389 8.6% 8.3% 9.6% 32

5 Oswald Peraza 32 D — COOL 155 0.121 87.4 7.0% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.2% 0.0% 7.7% 5

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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