TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ TEX

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ATH @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph slight_out 100°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:05p

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8:05p

+6 ↑

9:05p

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10:05p

+6 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +6 FIT

Best of game Max Muncy conv 37 · vs deGrom ⟷ Justin Foscue conv 28 · vs Jump → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 77

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Tommy White — D ●●○○○

3 Carlos Cortes — D ●○○○○

FADE Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 66

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Justin Foscue +750 C ●●●●○

2 Danny Jansen +950 D ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger +950 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 43.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Max Muncy ✶ vs deGrom — 0.244 · 90.4 · 10.3% 43.8% 30.0% F B O C+ 63

· TEX Justin Foscue HOT vs Jump Edge +750 0.218 · 89.2 · 8.3% 28.6% 27.8% F B O C 53

· TEX Jake Burger HOT vs Jump Edge +950 0.191 · 90.2 · 8.6% 20.0% 25.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· TEX Danny Jansen vs Jump Edge +950 0.168 · 87.1 · 6.8% 33.3% 20.8% F B O D 46

· TEX Elias Díaz HOT vs Jump Edge +850 0.158 · 87.2 · 7.2% 16.7% 19.3% F B O D 45

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Jump Edge — 0.169 · 88.9 · 6.4% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 44

· ATH Tommy White vs deGrom — 0.070 · 85.8 · 8.3% 14.3% 7.8% F B O D 37

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Jump Edge +750 0.201 · 89.2 · 6.6% 8.3% 12.9% F B O D 47

· TEX Corey Seager vs Jump +625 0.183 · 91.7 · 9.5% 8.3% 11.5% F B O D 49

· TEX Cody Freeman vs Jump Edge — 0.096 · 82.8 · 3.7% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 37

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Jump — 0.161 · 92.2 · 8.1% 8.3% 9.8% F B O D 45

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.143 · 89.0 · 7.2% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 39

· ATH Lawrence Butler COOL vs deGrom Edge +850 0.141 · 89.4 · 7.9% 7.7% 9.7% F B O D 40

· ATH Zack Gelof COOL vs deGrom +750 0.192 · 88.7 · 8.1% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 46

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.177 · 87.8 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 42

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs deGrom Edge +950 0.094 · 86.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 27

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs deGrom — 0.101 · 90.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 36

· ATH Darell Hernaiz vs deGrom — 0.045 · 85.1 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.6% ← leak BRK 42.6% OFF 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Max Muncy R

15.1% 13.4% 8.1% 13.0% C+ 63 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Zack Gelof R

8.7% 4.2% 15.8% 7.8% D 46 +750

118

Jonah Heim S Edge

6.2% 3.8% 11.3% 6.9% D 42 —

132

Lawrence Butler L Edge

7.5% 10.9% 3.3% 7.3% D 40 +850

136

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.3% 3.4% 7.3% 6.3% D 39 —

152

Tommy White R

10.3% 6.9% 0.0% 8.3% D 37 —

159

Henry Bolte R

6.6% 8.8% 3.7% 6.8% D 36 —

190

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.5% 2.8% 1.4% 1.7% D 27 +950

194

Darell Hernaiz R

0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.9% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.6% usage) carries deGrom's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.7% ← leak BRK 39.2% OFF 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Justin Foscue R Edge

9.7% 12.2% 11.8% 10.8% C 53 +750

Jake Burger R Edge

11.0% 12.0% 13.9% 11.7% C 53 +950

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Corey Seager L

13.5% 12.3% 18.9% 14.1% D 49 +625

Wyatt Langford R Edge

4.6% 9.9% 10.7% 6.8% D 47 +750

Danny Jansen R Edge

9.2% 4.2% 0.0% 7.1% D 46 +950

Elias Díaz R Edge

9.1% 9.3% 3.8% 8.1% D 45 +850

Brandon Nimmo L

8.1% 15.9% 7.3% 10.2% D 45 —

106

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

7.9% 6.0% 0.0% 6.3% D 44 —

149

Cody Freeman R Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.7% usage) carries Jump's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Foscue Burger Jansen Díaz Duran

Legend

attack side — vs deGrom fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Max Muncy — · 63

Justin Foscue +750 · 53

Jake Burger +950 · 53

Danny Jansen +950 · 46

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph slight_out 100°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

87°F

7:05p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

87°F

8:05p

↑

5 mph · out

87°F

9:05p

↑

5 mph · out

87°F

10:05p

↑

5 mph · out

87°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.33× 100°F, wind 6 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 63 C+ — · 10 0.244 90.4 10.3% 25.5%vs RHP 411 21.4% 43.8% 30.0% 48

2 Zack Gelof 46 D +750 COOL 85 0.192 88.7 8.1% 25.6%vs RHP 398 18.0% 0.0% 14.0% 32

3 Jonah Heim 42 D — COOL 118 0.177 87.8 7.5% 8.3%vs RHP 408 8.3% 0.0% 10.5% 25

4 Lawrence Butler 40 D +850 COOL 132 0.141 89.4 7.9% 18.2%vs RHP 410 8.5% 7.7% 9.7% 27

5 Carlos Cortes 39 D — COOL 136 0.143 89.0 7.2% 16.3%vs RHP 401 5.2% 8.3% 9.6% 29

6 Tommy White 37 D — WARM 152 0.070 85.8 8.3% 9.5%vs RHP 407 14.3% 14.3% 7.8% 37

7 Henry Bolte 36 D — COOL 159 0.101 90.9 7.5% 4.3%vs RHP 410 8.9% 0.0% 7.1% 32

8 Jeff Mcneil 27 D +950 WARM 190 0.094 86.6 3.8% 10.5%vs RHP 381 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 45

9 Darell Hernaiz 27 D — WARM 194 0.045 85.1 2.7% 0.0%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 10

vs Gage Jump · LHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Justin Foscue 53 C +750 HOT 41 0.218 89.2 8.3% 31.6%vs LHP 400 16.7% 28.6% 27.8% 21

2 Jake Burger 53 C +950 HOT 42 0.191 90.2 8.6% 34.6%vs LHP 401 16.4% 20.0% 25.1% 20

3 Corey Seager 49 D +625 · 64 0.183 91.7 9.5% 18.8%vs LHP 394 15.6% 8.3% 11.5% 32

4 Wyatt Langford 47 D +750 COOL 75 0.201 89.2 6.6% 16.7%vs LHP 396 15.5% 8.3% 12.9% 32

5 Danny Jansen 46 D +950 WARM 83 0.168 87.1 6.8% 28.6%vs LHP 398 9.8% 33.3% 20.8% 14

6 Elias Díaz 45 D +850 HOT 90 0.158 87.2 7.2% 35.7%vs LHP 393 13.9% 16.7% 19.3% 13

7 Brandon Nimmo 45 D — COOL 99 0.161 92.2 8.1% 16.1%vs LHP 404 10.3% 8.3% 9.8% 34

8 Ezequiel Duran 44 D — COOL 106 0.169 88.9 6.4% 13.6%vs LHP 395 12.8% 16.7% 10.4% 27

9 Cody Freeman 37 D — WARM 149 0.096 82.8 3.7% 16.7%vs LHP 388 11.1% 11.1% 8.4% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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