TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.75×

CWS @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 10 mph out 91°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

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11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +1 FIT

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 26 · vs Kay ⟷ Tristan Peters conv 31 · vs Lambert → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 34

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +550 C ●●●●○

2 Daulton Varsho +850 D ●●○○○

3 Yordan Alvarez +330 B ●●○○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 14

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tristan Peters +950 C ●●●●●

2 Colson Montgomery +425 C+ ●●●○○

3 Andrew Benintendi +950 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 16.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 9.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Lambert Edge +950 0.189 · 87.4 · 6.2% 41.7% 20.7% F B O C 54

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Kay Edge +550 0.193 · 88.3 · 7.3% 30.0% 22.8% F B O C 58

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Lambert Edge +425 0.216 · 88.8 · 9.2% 18.2% 26.8% F B O C+ 62

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Lambert Edge +950 0.185 · 89.0 · 7.7% 11.1% 20.8% F B O C 53

· CWS Munetaka Murakami vs Lambert Edge +475 0.282 · 93.9 · 11.6% 7.7% 20.5% F B O C+ 68

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ COOL vs Kay +330 0.294 · 94.5 · 11.9% 9.1% 18.1% F B O B 73

· HOU Christian Walker vs Kay Edge +525 0.205 · 89.3 · 8.8% 9.1% 18.1% F B O C+ 60

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Kay Edge +625 0.173 · 89.3 · 9.6% 11.1% 15.0% F B O C 56

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Lambert +575 0.243 · 90.7 · 9.8% 7.7% 17.6% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Nelson Velazquez COOL vs Kay Edge +525 0.188 · 94.6 · 10.3% 0.0% 20.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· CWS Jake Rogers HOT vs Lambert +750 0.139 · 88.2 · 8.4% 16.7% 15.2% F B O D 49

· HOU Daulton Varsho vs Kay +850 0.133 · 86.8 · 7.3% 20.0% 10.1% F B O D 48

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Kay Edge +575 0.162 · 85.9 · 6.5% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 49

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Lambert Edge +850 0.134 · 89.0 · 5.3% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 43

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Kay Edge — 0.126 · 85.9 · 4.3% 0.0% 15.9% F B O D 41

· HOU Nick Allen COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.081 · 86.2 · 4.0% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 41

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Lambert — 0.128 · 87.7 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 41

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.124 · 87.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.3% ← leak BRK 24.5% OFF 23.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

23.0% 16.4% 14.3% 19.6% C+ 68 +475

Miguel Vargas R

16.3% 10.7% 12.8% 14.2% C+ 63 +575

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.2% 10.6% 14.9% 12.3% C+ 62 +425

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.3% 4.3% 2.1% 5.7% C 54 +950

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.3% 4.3% 5.1% 8.7% C 53 +950

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jake Rogers R

13.1% 5.3% 0.0% 10.5% D 49 +750

113

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.2% 2.4% 3.8% 4.2% D 43 +850

121

Sam Antonacci L Edge

6.7% 4.5% 0.0% 5.2% D 41 —

125

Chase Meidroth R

4.1% 5.4% 3.4% 4.3% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.3% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.0% ← leak BRK 28.3% OFF 13.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Yordan Alvarez L

17.2% 21.4% 9.2% 16.8% B 73 +330

Neutral · 4

Christian Walker R Edge

8.1% 9.7% 12.8% 9.1% C+ 60 +525

Jeremy Peña R Edge

6.1% 6.4% 9.5% 6.5% C 58 +550

Cam Smith R Edge

9.0% 14.9% 16.1% 11.0% C 56 +625

Nelson Velazquez R Edge

12.8% 9.1% 16.7% 12.5% C 52 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R Edge

6.6% 2.9% 1.8% 5.0% D 49 +575

Daulton Varsho L

7.6% 4.2% 6.4% 6.4% D 48 +850

120

Christian Vazquez R Edge

3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 41 —

122

Nick Allen R Edge

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.0% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery Peters Benintendi Rogers Alvarez Walker Peña Smith Varsho

Legend

attack side — vs Kay fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Tristan Peters +950 · 54

Jeremy Peña +550 · 58

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.17× Wind 10 mph out 91°F retractable

↑

7 mph · in

84°F

7:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · in

84°F

8:10p

↑

7 mph · in

84°F

9:10p

↑

7 mph · in

84°F

10:10p

↑

7 mph · in

84°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.75× 91°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 68 C+ +475 · 4 0.282 93.9 11.6% 39.7%vs RHP 404 18.5% 7.7% 20.5% 23

2 Miguel Vargas 63 C+ +575 COOL 12 0.243 90.7 9.8% 17.3%vs RHP 393 20.3% 7.7% 17.6% 31

3 Colson Montgomery 62 C+ +425 WARM 14 0.216 88.8 9.2% 25.7%vs RHP 398 21.4% 18.2% 26.8% 18

4 Tristan Peters 54 C +950 WARM 37 0.189 87.4 6.2% 15.1%vs RHP 377 12.2% 41.7% 20.7% 32

5 Andrew Benintendi 53 C +950 · 43 0.185 89.0 7.7% 17.5%vs RHP 388 13.5% 11.1% 20.8% 24

6 Jake Rogers 49 D +750 HOT 62 0.139 88.2 8.4% 9.5%vs RHP 382 9.7% 16.7% 15.2% 12

7 Braden Montgomery 43 D +850 COOL 113 0.134 89.0 5.3% 16.0%vs RHP 390 6.2% 8.3% 8.8% 37

8 Sam Antonacci 41 D — COOL 121 0.124 87.3 5.9% 12.3%vs RHP 390 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 29

9 Chase Meidroth 41 D — · 125 0.128 87.7 5.4% 15.4%vs RHP 379 7.8% 0.0% 9.3% 38

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 73 B +330 COOL 1 0.294 94.5 11.9% 22.5%vs LHP 405 23.6% 9.1% 18.1% 26

2 Christian Walker 60 C+ +525 · 20 0.205 89.3 8.8% 25.0%vs LHP 391 17.3% 9.1% 18.1% 31

3 Jeremy Peña 58 C +550 WARM 22 0.193 88.3 7.3% 7.7%vs LHP 387 17.1% 30.0% 22.8% 19

4 Cam Smith 56 C +625 COOL 30 0.173 89.3 9.6% 22.2%vs LHP 408 12.6% 11.1% 15.0% 20

5 Nelson Velazquez 52 C +525 COOL 49 0.188 94.6 10.3% 23.5%vs LHP 415 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 2

6 Isaac Paredes 49 D +575 COOL 65 0.162 85.9 6.5% 3.6%vs LHP 377 11.5% 8.3% 10.5% 33

7 Daulton Varsho 48 D +850 WARM 72 0.133 86.8 7.3% 5.9%vs LHP 387 7.1% 20.0% 10.1% 31

8 Christian Vazquez 41 D — WARM 120 0.126 85.9 4.3% 9.1%vs LHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 9

9 Nick Allen 41 D — COOL 122 0.081 86.2 4.0% 16.7%vs LHP 377 4.9% 0.0% 13.1% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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