TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.29×

PHI @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 9 mph out 96°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+10 ↑

6:40p

+8 ↑

7:40p

+7 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +10

Best of game Gabriel Moreno conv 15 · vs Nola ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 26 · vs Proxy → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 93

2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Gabriel Moreno +950 D ●●○○○

2 Tim Tawa +750 D ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll +500 C ●●○○○

FADE AZ Bullpen Proxy · AZ

leak 42

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +265 B ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +500 C ●●●○○

3 Brandon Marsh +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 26.8% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Proxy +265 0.285 · 92.6 · 17.4% 25.0% 26.8% F B O B 72

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Proxy +500 0.237 · 90.4 · 11.3% 16.7% 19.4% F B O C 57

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Nola Edge +500 0.235 · 91.7 · 10.6% 7.7% 15.4% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Nola +950 0.164 · 89.4 · 8.7% 16.7% 13.4% F B O D 45

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Nola +750 0.162 · 91.1 · 9.9% 15.4% 14.2% F B O D 47

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Nola +700 0.192 · 84.9 · 7.7% 8.3% 14.7% F B O D 46

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Nola — 0.118 · 87.4 · 7.8% 7.7% 8.6% F B O D 37

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Nola — 0.094 · 87.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 33

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Proxy +750 0.156 · 89.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 41

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.137 · 87.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 38

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.119 · 87.4 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33

· PHI Trea Turner vs Proxy +750 0.138 · 88.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Proxy +950 0.136 · 90.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 35

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Proxy — 0.144 · 89.2 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 35

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Proxy — 0.129 · 89.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 30

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Proxy — 0.086 · 87.2 · 1.3% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for AZ Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 50.0% ← leak BRK 33.7% OFF 16.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

12.4% 13.7% 8.5% 11.9% C 55 +500

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Tim Tawa R

9.8% 11.1% 12.0% 10.4% D 47 +750

Nolan Arenado R

9.4% 1.8% 5.0% 6.4% D 46 +700

Gabriel Moreno R

8.2% 7.4% 8.7% 8.0% D 45 +950

126

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.3% 2.6% 1.3% 3.3% D 38 —

130

Ryan Waldschmidt R

6.9% 8.2% 0.0% 6.5% D 37 —

151

Jose Fernandez R

3.7% 5.5% 0.0% 4.0% D 33 —

153

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.7% 1.3% 1.9% 2.9% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.0% usage) carries Nola's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Tawa Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +265 · 72

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 9 mph out 96°F retractable

+10

↑

12 mph · out

84°F

6:40p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

83°F

7:40p

↑

9 mph · out

82°F

8:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

82°F

9:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

82°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.29× 96°F, wind 9 mph SE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs AZ Bullpen Proxy 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 72 B +265 COOL 3 0.285 92.6 17.4% 31.0% 403 22.8% 25.0% 26.8% 35

2 Bryce Harper 57 C +500 · 39 0.237 90.4 11.3% 24.5% 402 18.9% 16.7% 19.4% 30

3 Brandon Marsh 41 D +750 COOL 128 0.156 89.3 8.4% 16.0% 391 11.5% 0.0% 8.6% 26

4 Trea Turner 37 D +750 · 149 0.138 88.4 6.3% 12.5% 392 12.5% 0.0% 7.2% 35

5 Alec Bohm 35 D +950 COOL 157 0.136 90.4 5.6% 12.0% 397 10.3% 0.0% 7.1% 33

6 Bryson Stott 35 D — COOL 158 0.144 89.2 5.7% 7.3% 385 7.1% 0.0% 6.9% 28

7 J.T. Realmuto 30 D — · 166 0.129 89.8 4.5% 11.2% 396 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 26

8 Justin Crawford 23 D — COOL 171 0.086 87.2 1.3% 3.2% 382 2.0% 0.0% 5.9% 29

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.37 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 55 C +500 · 33 0.235 91.7 10.6% 17.3%vs RHP 402 13.6% 7.7% 15.4% 34

2 Tim Tawa 47 D +750 WARM 69 0.162 91.1 9.9% 23.7%vs RHP 398 10.0% 15.4% 14.2% 36

3 Nolan Arenado 46 D +700 COOL 76 0.192 84.9 7.7% 21.7%vs RHP 389 15.0% 8.3% 14.7% 31

4 Gabriel Moreno 45 D +950 WARM 83 0.164 89.4 8.7% 15.2%vs RHP 401 10.0% 16.7% 13.4% 35

5 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D — COOL 126 0.137 87.4 5.6% 9.1%vs RHP 396 4.9% 0.0% 8.0% 46

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 37 D — COOL 130 0.118 87.4 7.8% 10.3%vs RHP 415 4.3% 7.7% 8.6% 24

7 Jose Fernandez 33 D — COOL 151 0.094 87.8 6.2% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 21

8 Geraldo Perdomo 33 D — COOL 153 0.119 87.4 5.2% 10.0%vs RHP 383 6.6% 0.0% 7.7% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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