TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.13×

BAL @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 7 mph slight_out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+5 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

+4 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +5

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 34 · vs Gordon ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 31 · vs Proxy → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tanner Gordon RHP · COL

leak 68

1.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso +198 C+ ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo +330 C+ ●●●●●

3 Colton Cowser +350 C ●●●○○

FADE BAL Bullpen Proxy

leak 40

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +320 B ●●●●●

2 Mickey Moniak +475 C+ ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 29.3% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Gordon +198 0.234 · 94.2 · 11.4% 38.5% 29.8% F B O C+ 67

· — Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Proxy +320 0.291 · 90.4 · 16.4% 33.3% 29.3% F B O B 74

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Gordon +330 0.223 · 91.8 · 10.9% 36.4% 22.2% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Gordon Edge +350 0.160 · 88.1 · 10.2% 22.2% 18.9% F B O C 53

· — Mickey Moniak vs Proxy +475 0.259 · 89.7 · 10.2% 18.2% 22.8% F B O C+ 60

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Gordon Edge — 0.198 · 90.4 · 10.9% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· — Willi Castro vs Proxy +700 0.158 · 87.6 · 8.1% 15.4% 11.6% F B O D 46

· — Troy Johnston vs Proxy +850 0.117 · 89.6 · 2.4% 14.3% 8.5% F B O D 33

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Gordon Edge +320 0.171 · 89.7 · 8.1% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 49

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Gordon Edge +575 0.136 · 88.3 · 6.4% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 41

· — Ezequiel Tovar HOT vs Proxy +850 0.125 · 87.5 · 6.6% 10.0% 7.2% F B O D 39

· — Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Proxy +750 0.182 · 85.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 41

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Gordon Edge +390 0.118 · 87.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· — Tj Rumfield vs Proxy +750 0.149 · 84.1 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.5% BRK 31.4% OFF 22.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Alonso R

15.3% 10.3% 15.9% 13.9% C+ 67 +198

Coby Mayo R

11.1% 15.3% 12.5% 12.7% C+ 61 +330

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.0% 10.6% 10.2% 12.6% C 54 —

Colton Cowser L Edge

12.9% 15.2% 3.9% 11.1% C 53 +350

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.2% 6.1% 7.1% 6.9% D 49 +320

113

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.4% 8.2% 0.0% 4.3% D 41 +575

124

Jackson Holliday L Edge

6.7% 4.2% 7.0% 6.1% D 39 +390

Read the columns: no single family leads Gordon's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for BAL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Cowser Goodman Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Gordon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Pete Alonso +198 · 67

Hunter Goodman +320 · 74

Coby Mayo +330 · 61

Colton Cowser +350 · 53

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 7 mph slight_out 75°F open

-2

↑

10 mph · cross

64°F

6:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

65°F

7:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

65°F

8:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

65°F

9:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

64°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 75°F, wind 7 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Gordon · RHP 1.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 67 C+ +198 · 5 0.234 94.2 11.4% 30.8%vs RHP 402 21.3% 38.5% 29.8% 35

2 Coby Mayo 61 C+ +330 WARM 16 0.223 91.8 10.9% 10.3%vs RHP 413 17.5% 36.4% 22.2% 24

3 Samuel Basallo 54 C — COOL 38 0.198 90.4 10.9% 30.0%vs RHP 399 14.8% 0.0% 15.6% 20

4 Colton Cowser 53 C +350 WARM 43 0.160 88.1 10.2% 20.0%vs RHP 412 16.7% 22.2% 18.9% 23

5 Gunnar Henderson 49 D +320 COOL 59 0.171 89.7 8.1% 17.5%vs RHP 391 14.9% 7.7% 11.6% 34

6 Leody Taveras 41 D +575 · 113 0.136 88.3 6.4% 14.5%vs RHP 403 5.1% 8.3% 8.9% 33

7 Jackson Holliday 39 D +390 COOL 124 0.118 87.1 7.6% 14.7%vs RHP 388 3.8% 0.0% 8.6% 44

vs BAL Bullpen Proxy 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 74 B +320 COOL 1 0.291 90.4 16.4% 29.8% 412 24.3% 33.3% 29.3% 16

2 Mickey Moniak 60 C+ +475 WARM 26 0.259 89.7 10.2% 17.9% 415 17.0% 18.2% 22.8% 27

3 Willi Castro 46 D +700 · 103 0.158 87.6 8.1% 13.2% 409 11.2% 15.4% 11.6% 32

4 Jake Mccarthy 41 D +750 COOL 127 0.182 85.0 4.9% 13.3% 416 11.1% 0.0% 10.6% 40

5 Ezequiel Tovar 39 D +850 HOT 141 0.125 87.5 6.6% 8.3% 409 7.8% 10.0% 7.2% 20

6 Tj Rumfield 36 D +750 WARM 154 0.149 84.1 4.3% 9.7% 410 5.6% 0.0% 8.2% 33

7 Troy Johnston 33 D +850 WARM 160 0.117 89.6 2.4% 5.1% 411 2.1% 14.3% 8.5% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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