TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.29×

SD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:40p

+6 ↑

7:40p

+5 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +8

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 24 · vs Singer ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 31 · vs King → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 87

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ty France +400 C+ ●●●○○

3 Manny Machado +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Michael King RHP · SD

leak 63

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jj Bleday +350 C ●●●○○

3 Dane Myers +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: 12.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 35.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs King +370 0.219 · 90.2 · 10.4% 35.7% 26.6% F B O C+ 63

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Singer Edge +290 0.181 · 90.7 · 10.1% 25.0% 23.9% F B O C+ 60

· SD Ty France COOL vs Singer +400 0.219 · 91.8 · 9.6% 16.7% 26.0% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs King Edge +350 0.212 · 88.6 · 9.0% 20.0% 15.5% F B O C 55

· CIN Tyler Stephenson COOL vs King +425 0.168 · 91.0 · 10.1% 15.4% 12.0% F B O C 52

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs King +370 0.207 · 88.5 · 9.5% 0.0% 25.3% F B O C 51

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Singer +350 0.185 · 90.4 · 9.3% 8.3% 15.0% F B O C 56

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs King Edge — 0.206 · 93.8 · 10.5% 7.1% 14.8% F B O C 57

· SD Fernando Tatis HOT vs Singer — 0.158 · 92.8 · 10.7% 0.0% 18.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs King +750 0.104 · 89.1 · 6.3% 22.2% 10.0% F B O D 41

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs King +575 0.153 · 88.1 · 9.0% 20.0% 11.3% F B O D 48

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Singer +525 0.105 · 89.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 43

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Singer Edge +525 0.079 · 87.2 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 37

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Singer +700 0.112 · 87.4 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.5% ← leak BRK 41.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Ty France R

9.2% 9.6% 9.4% C+ 61 +400

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.4% 10.7% 11.0% C+ 60 +290

Manny Machado R

11.3% 5.8% 9.5% C 56 +350

Fernando Tatis R

10.6% 13.9% 12.4% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Xander Bogaerts R

7.4% 4.4% 6.2% D 43 +525

118

Freddy Fermin R

2.8% 4.7% 3.7% D 40 +700

129

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

3.5% 2.4% 3.3% D 37 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.5% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.8% ← leak OFF 27.3% BRK 25.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

16.2% 7.1% 10.0% 12.9% C+ 63 +370

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.0% 5.6% 10.7% 13.0% C 57 —

Jj Bleday L Edge

12.1% 5.0% 6.5% 9.4% C 55 +350

Tyler Stephenson R

16.0% 4.5% 7.0% 12.2% C 52 +425

Eugenio Suarez R

12.7% 5.0% 6.5% 10.8% C 51 +370

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Matt Mclain R

11.2% 3.8% 10.0% 10.0% D 48 +575

109

Dane Myers R

4.3% 5.3% 5.5% 4.8% D 41 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.8% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Merrill Stewart Bleday Stephenson Mclain Myers

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Sal Stewart +370 · 63

Jackson Merrill +290 · 60

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph out 86°F open

↑

4 mph · out

88°F

6:40p · peak

↑

2 mph · out

85°F

7:40p

↑

2 mph · out

83°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

81°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

79°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.29× 86°F, wind 4 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 61 C+ +400 COOL 15 0.219 91.8 9.6% 27.5%vs RHP 392 16.0% 16.7% 26.0% 28

2 Jackson Merrill 60 C+ +290 WARM 17 0.181 90.7 10.1% 20.4%vs RHP 412 16.3% 25.0% 23.9% 30

3 Manny Machado 56 C +350 COOL 30 0.185 90.4 9.3% 26.3%vs RHP 397 16.8% 8.3% 15.0% 31

4 Fernando Tatis 51 C — HOT 50 0.158 92.8 10.7% 13.9%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 38

5 Xander Bogaerts 43 D +525 WARM 98 0.105 89.0 7.5% 15.9%vs RHP 400 7.9% 0.0% 9.4% 28

6 Freddy Fermin 40 D +700 COOL 118 0.112 87.4 5.7% 6.5%vs RHP 382 2.3% 0.0% 8.2% 17

7 Jake Cronenworth 37 D +525 COOL 129 0.079 87.2 5.5% 8.6%vs RHP 392 2.3% 0.0% 8.7% 25

vs Michael King · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 63 C+ +370 · 10 0.219 90.2 10.4% 22.8%vs RHP 396 18.9% 35.7% 26.6% 42

2 Elly De La Cruz 57 C — COOL 25 0.206 93.8 10.5% 20.3%vs RHP 398 15.4% 7.1% 14.8% 37

3 Jj Bleday 55 C +350 COOL 32 0.212 88.6 9.0% 21.6%vs RHP 387 20.0% 20.0% 15.5% 33

4 Tyler Stephenson 52 C +425 COOL 47 0.168 91.0 10.1% 22.0%vs RHP 392 10.2% 15.4% 12.0% 22

5 Eugenio Suarez 51 C +370 COOL 49 0.207 88.5 9.5% 27.3%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 25.3% 25

6 Matt Mclain 48 D +575 COOL 66 0.153 88.1 9.0% 13.4%vs RHP 394 14.3% 20.0% 11.3% 35

7 Dane Myers 41 D +750 COOL 109 0.104 89.1 6.3% 11.8%vs RHP 384 6.8% 22.2% 10.0% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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