TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.12×

DET @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph in 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:40p

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the 8:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Brooks Lee conv 28 · vs Jobe ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 7 · vs Bradley → edge: Brooks Lee

ATTACK Jackson Jobe RHP · DET

leak 87

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brooks Lee +625 D ●●●●○

2 Luke Keaschall +750 D ●●○○○

3 Kody Clemens +320 C ●●○○○

FADE Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 31

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +525 C ●○○○○

2 Spencer Torkelson +500 D ●○○○○

3 Colt Keith +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brooks Lee: 4.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Jobe Edge +320 0.225 · 92.4 · 10.1% 8.3% 14.6% F B O C 53

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Bradley +525 0.222 · 88.3 · 9.6% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Brooks Lee ✶ HOT vs Jobe Edge +625 0.192 · 88.0 · 5.8% 33.3% 21.8% F B O D 48

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Jobe +750 0.110 · 85.3 · 5.5% 16.7% 7.1% F B O D 34

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Jobe Edge +700 0.156 · 87.7 · 8.0% 11.1% 9.8% F B O D 41

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Jobe Edge +500 0.167 · 89.6 · 9.0% 9.1% 10.8% F B O D 44

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Bradley +500 0.183 · 89.3 · 10.7% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 47

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Jobe +475 0.164 · 89.8 · 9.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 45

· DET Colt Keith HOT vs Bradley Edge +575 0.147 · 89.0 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle HOT vs Bradley Edge +575 0.142 · 88.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 39

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.102 · 89.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Bradley +850 0.124 · 86.4 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 36

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Bradley Edge — 0.101 · 85.7 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 70.9% ← leak OFF 20.0% BRK 9.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R

11.4% 6.4% 8.2% 10.0% C 50 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R

13.0% 12.0% 10.7% 12.3% D 47 +500

122

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.0% 1.4% 7.3% 7.3% D 39 +575

125

Colt Keith L Edge

6.7% 3.0% 15.2% 7.3% D 38 +575

138

Gleyber Torres R

8.2% 4.5% 4.9% 7.0% D 36 +850

164

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.0% 0.0% 1.7% 2.2% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.9% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.7% ← leak BRK 35.4% OFF 10.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 18.9% 10.9% 11.7% C 53 +320

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.8% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% D 48 +625

Royce Lewis R

13.7% 6.6% 9.1% 11.1% D 45 +475

Josh Bell S Edge

10.5% 11.8% 6.0% 9.7% D 44 +500

111

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.9% 8.6% 4.4% 7.5% D 41 +700

146

Luke Keaschall R

4.5% 3.0% 0.0% 3.6% D 34 +750

150

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 11.1% 5.7% 6.4% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.7% usage) carries Jobe's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Jobe fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brooks Lee +625 · 48

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph in 85°F open

↑

3 mph · slight_out

83°F

6:40p

↑

2 mph · out

81°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

8:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

79°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

78°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 85°F, wind 4 mph E (in) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 50 C +525 COOL 52 0.222 88.3 9.6% 29.3%vs RHP 398 18.4% 0.0% 14.1% 25

2 Spencer Torkelson 47 D +500 COOL 74 0.183 89.3 10.7% 23.0%vs RHP 394 13.8% 0.0% 10.9% 12

3 Kevin Mcgonigle 39 D +575 HOT 122 0.142 88.2 8.2% 9.7%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 8.3% 39

4 Colt Keith 38 D +575 HOT 125 0.147 89.0 8.1% 13.2%vs RHP 385 6.5% 0.0% 8.8% 17

5 Gleyber Torres 36 D +850 WARM 138 0.124 86.4 8.0% 13.6%vs RHP 393 9.0% 0.0% 7.0% 32

6 Zach Mckinstry 28 D — COOL 164 0.101 85.7 4.5% 5.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 22

vs Jackson Jobe · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 53 C +320 WARM 44 0.225 92.4 10.1% 19.1%vs RHP 391 16.7% 8.3% 14.6% 32

2 Brooks Lee ✶ 48 D +625 HOT 62 0.192 88.0 5.8% 22.4%vs RHP 372 16.8% 33.3% 21.8% 35

3 Royce Lewis 45 D +475 COOL 88 0.164 89.8 9.7% 15.8%vs RHP 400 14.0% 0.0% 9.6% 36

4 Josh Bell 44 D +500 COOL 91 0.167 89.6 9.0% 19.1%vs RHP 407 11.1% 9.1% 10.8% 31

5 Trevor Larnach 41 D +700 WARM 111 0.156 87.7 8.0% 16.1%vs RHP 395 9.5% 11.1% 9.8% 20

6 Luke Keaschall 34 D +750 HOT 146 0.110 85.3 5.5% 10.7%vs RHP 374 7.6% 16.7% 7.1% 41

7 Victor Caratini 33 D — COOL 150 0.102 89.5 7.4% 16.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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