TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ TB

Playable air · 1.08×

NYM @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Juan Soto conv 37 · vs Seymour ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 16 · vs Stock → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 97

1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Carson Benge +700 D ●●○○○

3 Bo Bichette +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Robert Stock RHP · NYM

leak 3

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +290 C+ ●●○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda +525 C ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 23.9% · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Seymour +330 0.252 · 92.6 · 11.4% 50.0% 23.9% F B O C+ 65

· TB Junior Caminero vs Stock +290 0.251 · 93.0 · 10.4% 15.4% 15.7% F B O C+ 64

· NYM Francisco Lindor COOL vs Seymour Edge +425 0.184 · 90.9 · 9.3% 16.7% 13.2% F B O C 53

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Stock Edge +525 0.144 · 91.0 · 9.0% 16.7% 11.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Seymour +700 0.147 · 89.1 · 8.3% 16.7% 15.1% F B O D 48

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Seymour Edge +525 0.127 · 89.7 · 7.7% 18.2% 12.7% F B O D 45

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Stock Edge +575 0.149 · 87.9 · 6.0% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 45

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Stock +525 0.163 · 90.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 45

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Seymour Edge +525 0.165 · 89.9 · 12.1% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 48

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Seymour +525 0.175 · 89.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 47

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Seymour +950 0.112 · 89.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 39

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Stock +700 0.161 · 85.7 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 40

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Seymour Edge +750 0.131 · 86.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 43

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Stock Edge +950 0.107 · 86.0 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Stock — 0.100 · 85.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· NYM Brett Baty vs Seymour — 0.117 · 89.9 · 9.3% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 43

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Stock Edge — 0.072 · 85.6 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Stock Edge — 0.054 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.7% OFF 29.9% BRK 26.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Juan Soto L

18.1% 4.8% 11.4% 14.0% C+ 65 +330

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.2% 5.9% 6.8% 9.2% C 53 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

15.5% 16.0% 15.8% 15.7% D 48 +525

Carson Benge L

6.5% 7.6% 8.5% 7.2% D 48 +700

Jared Young L

6.2% 12.9% 6.3% 7.2% D 47 +525

Bo Bichette R Edge

5.0% 0.0% 9.9% 6.0% D 45 +525

100

Marcus Semien R Edge

8.8% 6.2% 1.9% 6.2% D 43 +750

101

Brett Baty L

8.3% 3.8% 14.8% 8.9% D 43 —

121

A.J. Ewing L

7.4% 0.0% 11.5% 7.2% D 39 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Seymour's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 78.5% BRK 11.4% OFF 9.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Junior Caminero R

15.0% 11.5% 7.4% 12.8% C+ 64 +290

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.0% 13.0% 4.4% 9.6% C 50 +525

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Yandy Diaz R

5.8% 10.7% 3.8% 7.1% D 45 +525

Cedric Mullins L Edge

4.0% 2.8% 7.7% 4.2% D 45 +575

115

Jonny Deluca R

4.5% 3.6% 0.0% 3.7% D 40 +700

131

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.5% 1.6% 3.0% 3.5% D 37 +950

135

Nick Fortes R

2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 36 —

156

Taylor Walls S Edge

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 32 —

169

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 22 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Stock's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Benge Bichette Caminero Aranda

Legend

attack side — vs Seymour fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto +330 · 65

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.08× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 65 C+ +330 WARM 7 0.252 92.6 11.4% 13.3%vs LHP 401 20.2% 50.0% 23.9% 4

2 Francisco Lindor 53 C +425 COOL 46 0.184 90.9 9.3% 18.5%vs LHP 397 13.7% 16.7% 13.2% 33

3 Francisco Alvarez 48 D +525 COOL 61 0.165 89.9 12.1% 16.7%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16

4 Carson Benge 48 D +700 COOL 64 0.147 89.1 8.3% 18.5%vs LHP 396 10.7% 16.7% 15.1% 33

5 Jared Young 47 D +525 COOL 75 0.175 89.7 8.2% 0.0%vs LHP 400 6.8% 0.0% 10.7% 33

6 Bo Bichette 45 D +525 WARM 84 0.127 89.7 7.7% 18.5%vs LHP 385 9.8% 18.2% 12.7% 30

7 Marcus Semien 43 D +750 COOL 100 0.131 86.5 7.7% 11.1%vs LHP 391 10.7% 0.0% 8.5% 32

8 Brett Baty 43 D — WARM 101 0.117 89.9 9.3% 0.0%vs LHP 397 6.7% 0.0% 8.1% 16

9 A.J. Ewing 39 D +950 COOL 121 0.112 89.3 8.2% 11.8%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 29

vs Robert Stock · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 64 C+ +290 WARM 9 0.251 93.0 10.4% 37.8%vs RHP 413 25.6% 15.4% 15.7% 41

2 Jonathan Aranda 50 C +525 · 53 0.144 91.0 9.0% 15.5%vs RHP 390 11.8% 16.7% 11.9% 33

3 Yandy Diaz 45 D +525 WARM 80 0.163 90.8 7.8% 25.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 40

4 Cedric Mullins 45 D +575 WARM 85 0.149 87.9 6.0% 17.3%vs RHP 387 12.1% 10.0% 10.3% 29

5 Jonny Deluca 40 D +700 WARM 115 0.161 85.7 5.6% 22.2%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 29

6 Richie Palacios 37 D +950 COOL 131 0.107 86.0 5.4% 10.9%vs RHP 398 3.9% 0.0% 8.3% 29

7 Nick Fortes 36 D — COOL 135 0.100 85.2 4.3% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 8.2% 6

8 Taylor Walls 32 D — COOL 156 0.072 85.6 4.1% 2.4%vs RHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 7.1% 24

9 Chandler Simpson 22 D — COOL 169 0.054 83.8 — 2.4%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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