TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.43×

MIA @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 5 mph slight_out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:45p

+9 ↑

7:45p

+9 ↑

8:45p

+9 ↑

9:45p

+9 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Heriberto Hernández conv 38 · vs Dion ⟷ Keibert Ruiz conv 23 · vs Gusto → edge: Heriberto Hernández

ATTACK Will Dion LHP · MIA

leak 93

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Heriberto Hernández — C+ ●●●●●

2 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

3 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 91

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Keibert Ruiz — C ●●●○○

2 Daylen Lile — C ●●●○○

3 Andres Chaparro — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Heriberto Hernández: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Heriberto Hernández ✶ COOL vs Dion Edge — 0.237 · 91.3 · 9.3% 33.3% 42.4% F B O C+ 65

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.169 · 88.2 · 6.2% 28.6% 16.9% F B O C 50

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Gusto Edge — 0.176 · 88.6 · 8.4% 23.1% 20.1% F B O C 55

· WSH Andres Chaparro HOT vs Gusto — 0.276 · 89.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 42.1% F B O C 59

· WSH Brady House vs Gusto — 0.164 · 90.0 · 9.5% 11.1% 14.0% F B O C 53

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.240 · 89.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 19.4% F B O C 55

· WSH Abimelec Ortiz COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.219 · 90.3 · 8.8% 0.0% 17.1% F B O C 52

· WSH Kyle Stowers HOT vs Dion — 0.215 · 92.3 · 8.8% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· WSH Jakob Marsee vs Dion — 0.113 · 87.2 · 4.7% 12.5% 9.3% F B O D 40

· WSH Javier Sanoja COOL vs Dion Edge — 0.140 · 86.8 · 3.7% 9.1% 11.6% F B O D 41

· WSH Otto Lopez vs Dion Edge — 0.134 · 89.1 · 6.4% 8.3% 9.7% F B O D 44

· WSH Brian Navarreto vs Dion Edge — 0.115 · 84.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 17.5% F B O D 45

· WSH Esteury Ruiz COOL vs Dion Edge — 0.186 · 85.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 49

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Gusto — 0.149 · 87.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 46

· WSH Leo Jiménez COOL vs Dion Edge — 0.062 · 89.9 · 5.0% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 39

· WSH Agustin Ramirez COOL vs Dion Edge — 0.101 · 89.3 · 4.6% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 38

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Gusto Edge — 0.080 · 82.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.0% ← leak OFF 25.3% BRK 19.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

13.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.6% C+ 65 —

Kyle Stowers L

11.2% 7.3% 18.0% 12.3% C 56 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Esteury Ruiz R Edge

9.4% 5.9% 6.1% 7.8% D 49 —

102

Brian Navarreto R Edge

11.8% — 0.0% 8.0% D 45 —

107

Otto Lopez R Edge

9.0% 4.3% 3.6% 6.4% D 44 —

128

Javier Sanoja R Edge

2.2% 0.0% 2.9% 2.1% D 41 —

135

Jakob Marsee L

3.1% 7.3% 1.7% 3.4% D 40 —

138

Leo Jiménez R Edge

2.5% 9.1% 4.2% 3.9% D 39 —

143

Agustin Ramirez R Edge

2.9% 0.0% 5.7% 3.3% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.0% usage) carries Dion's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.6% ← leak BRK 31.7% OFF 14.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Andres Chaparro R

15.9% 13.0% 6.7% 14.0% C 59 —

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.1% 8.7% 11.5% 9.8% C 55 —

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.6% 12.3% 4.0% 8.6% C 55 —

Brady House R

11.3% 14.1% 0.0% 11.1% C 53 —

Abimelec Ortiz L Edge

12.1% 10.5% 0.0% 9.5% C 52 —

Keibert Ruiz L Edge

5.9% 4.2% 1.9% 4.7% C 50 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Jacob Young R

7.8% 4.4% 2.8% 6.2% D 46 —

163

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.6% 3.8% 2.9% 3.6% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.6% usage) carries Gusto's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hernández Chaparro Lile Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Dion fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Heriberto Hernández — · 65

Daylen Lile — · 55

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.19× Wind 5 mph slight_out 85°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

87°F

6:45p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

87°F

7:45p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

87°F

8:45p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

87°F

9:45p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

87°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.43× 85°F, wind 5 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Will Dion · LHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Heriberto Hernández ✶ 65 C+ — COOL 8 0.237 91.3 9.3% 40.0%vs LHP 408 17.8% 33.3% 42.4% 32

2 Kyle Stowers 56 C — HOT 31 0.215 92.3 8.8% 7.7%vs LHP 396 12.9% 0.0% 14.4% 8

3 Esteury Ruiz 49 D — COOL 66 0.186 85.6 7.1% 22.2%vs LHP 384 10.3% 0.0% 16.6% 11

4 Brian Navarreto 45 D — WARM 102 0.115 84.9 7.0% 12.5% 368 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 9

5 Otto Lopez 44 D — · 107 0.134 89.1 6.4% 6.9%vs LHP 402 6.8% 8.3% 9.7% 38

6 Javier Sanoja 41 D — COOL 128 0.140 86.8 3.7% 15.8%vs LHP 378 6.5% 9.1% 11.6% 38

7 Jakob Marsee 40 D — WARM 135 0.113 87.2 4.7% 11.1%vs LHP 381 7.5% 12.5% 9.3% 21

8 Leo Jiménez 39 D — COOL 138 0.062 89.9 5.0% 16.7%vs LHP 406 8.0% 0.0% 11.0% 11

9 Agustin Ramirez 38 D — COOL 143 0.101 89.3 4.6% 14.3%vs LHP 415 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 15

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Andres Chaparro 59 C — HOT 21 0.276 89.6 10.7% 36.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 42.1% 23

2 Cj Abrams 55 C — COOL 32 0.240 89.4 8.9% 28.7%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 21

3 Daylen Lile 55 C — WARM 36 0.176 88.6 8.4% 13.4%vs RHP 401 11.5% 23.1% 20.1% 35

4 Brady House 53 C — WARM 48 0.164 90.0 9.5% 19.4%vs RHP 397 12.2% 11.1% 14.0% 25

5 Abimelec Ortiz 52 C — COOL 51 0.219 90.3 8.8% 25.0%vs RHP 396 7.7% 0.0% 17.1% 31

6 Keibert Ruiz 50 C — COOL 58 0.169 88.2 6.2% 10.0%vs RHP 377 10.8% 28.6% 16.9% 26

7 Jacob Young 46 D — COOL 87 0.149 87.8 7.1% 12.3%vs RHP 399 7.1% 0.0% 11.6% 26

8 Jorbit Vivas 36 D — · 163 0.080 82.7 5.3% 6.5%vs RHP 392 2.6% 0.0% 8.0% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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