TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ CLE

Playable air · 1.07×

KC @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 9 mph cross 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

1:40p

+0 ↑

2:40p

+3 ↑

3:40p

+1 ↑

4:40p

+1 ↑

5:40p

the 3:40p window peaks +3

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 22 · vs Messick ⟷ Angel Martinez conv 6 · vs Lugo → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 34

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +575 D ●●●○○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +700 D ●●●○○

3 Jac Caglianone +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 29

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · stingy — thin edge

1 Angel Martinez +525 D ●○○○○

2 Patrick Bailey +525 D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: 10.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Messick +575 0.191 · 91.0 · 7.3% 27.3% 17.3% F B O D 47

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Messick +700 0.137 · 89.6 · 6.2% 27.3% 10.2% F B O D 38

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Messick +425 0.217 · 93.1 · 8.6% 10.0% 14.3% F B O D 49

· KC Nick Loftin vs Messick Edge — 0.145 · 87.1 · 4.5% 9.1% 7.5% F B O D 33

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.171 · 92.3 · 7.7% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 39

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Lugo Edge +525 0.178 · 87.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 39

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Lugo Edge +525 0.117 · 90.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 37

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Lugo Edge +575 0.160 · 91.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 39

· KC Salvador Perez vs Messick Edge +625 0.148 · 88.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 34

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Lugo Edge +700 0.129 · 88.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 36

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Lugo Edge +425 0.141 · 89.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· KC Isaac Collins vs Messick Edge +850 0.120 · 88.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Lugo Edge +850 0.117 · 86.8 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Lugo Edge — 0.059 · 83.8 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.1% ← leak OFF 23.9% BRK 15.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jac Caglianone L

13.3% 11.5% 18.7% 14.8% D 49 +425

Carter Jensen L

11.2% 9.1% 10.8% 10.7% D 47 +575

125

Bobby Witt R Edge

12.3% 14.0% 9.8% 11.6% D 39 —

134

Vinnie Pasquantino L

8.1% 7.9% 6.1% 7.6% D 38 +700

164

Salvador Perez R Edge

13.6% 8.5% 5.9% 9.8% D 34 +625

170

Nick Loftin R Edge

5.6% 0.0% 1.8% 4.1% D 33 —

179

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.0% 2.0% 8.1% 5.6% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.1% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.9% ← leak BRK 36.8% OFF 8.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

121

Angel Martinez S Edge

7.4% 14.0% 2.7% 7.3% D 39 +525

123

Chase Delauter L Edge

7.9% 6.5% 1.5% 6.3% D 39 +575

140

Patrick Bailey S Edge

8.4% 4.3% 4.3% 6.4% D 37 +525

154

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.0% 3.1% 2.6% 4.3% D 36 +700

163

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 34 +425

174

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.7% 4.2% 1.0% 3.1% D 32 +850

201

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.9% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Messick fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 9 mph cross 81°F open

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

1:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

2:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

75°F

3:40p · peak

↑

2 mph · out

73°F

4:40p

↑

2 mph · out

73°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 81°F, wind 9 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 49 D +425 · 57 0.217 93.1 8.6% 29.2%vs LHP 416 15.1% 10.0% 14.3% 29

2 Carter Jensen ✶ 47 D +575 WARM 72 0.191 91.0 7.3% 12.0%vs LHP 396 15.7% 27.3% 17.3% 31

3 Bobby Witt 39 D — COOL 125 0.171 92.3 7.7% 16.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 43

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 38 D +700 HOT 134 0.137 89.6 6.2% 5.3%vs LHP 398 10.3% 27.3% 10.2% 39

5 Salvador Perez 34 D +625 · 164 0.148 88.7 7.1% 12.2%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 41

6 Nick Loftin 33 D — · 170 0.145 87.1 4.5% 3.7%vs LHP 394 8.6% 9.1% 7.5% 30

7 Isaac Collins 31 D +850 WARM 179 0.120 88.8 5.3% 7.4%vs LHP 394 5.3% 0.0% 7.2% 26

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 39 D +525 COOL 121 0.178 87.5 7.5% 23.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 30

2 Chase Delauter 39 D +575 COOL 123 0.160 91.3 6.9% 23.2%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 14

3 Patrick Bailey 37 D +525 · 140 0.117 90.5 7.2% 14.6%vs RHP 409 6.5% 0.0% 10.5% 14

4 Travis Bazzana 36 D +700 COOL 154 0.129 88.0 5.9% 16.1%vs RHP 396 9.0% 0.0% 7.4% 34

5 Jose Ramirez 34 D +425 COOL 163 0.141 89.4 6.0% 10.0%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 36

6 Brayan Rocchio 32 D +850 COOL 174 0.117 86.8 4.9% 11.6%vs RHP 384 7.1% 0.0% 6.9% 30

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — WARM 201 0.059 83.8 2.0% 2.8%vs RHP 372 1.6% 0.0% 6.0% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.