TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ LAA

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PHI @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 4:07p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph out 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:07p

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2:07p

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4:07p

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5:07p

the 2:07p window peaks +8

Best of game Zach Neto conv 20 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 25 · vs Kikuchi → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 87

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.67 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +500 D ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +850 D ●○○○○

3 Josh Lowe +625 D ●○○○○

FADE Yusei Kikuchi LHP · LAA

leak 46

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +235 C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +475 C ●●○○○

3 Alec Bohm +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Kikuchi +235 0.286 · 92.7 · 12.8% 25.0% 24.1% F B O C+ 63

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Kikuchi +475 0.238 · 90.4 · 10.3% 16.7% 13.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto vs Wheeler +500 0.194 · 89.6 · 8.8% 25.0% 16.0% F B O D 45

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Wheeler +850 0.140 · 87.8 · 6.8% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 33

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Wheeler Edge +625 0.145 · 88.7 · 7.2% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 35

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Kikuchi Edge +625 0.137 · 90.4 · 7.2% 9.1% 7.5% F B O D 35

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Wheeler +425 0.190 · 90.0 · 10.3% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 43

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Wheeler — 0.123 · 87.4 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 30

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Kikuchi — 0.157 · 89.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 38

· PHI Trea Turner vs Kikuchi Edge +525 0.140 · 88.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 35

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Kikuchi +850 0.144 · 89.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 34

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Kikuchi Edge +625 0.130 · 89.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 29

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Kikuchi — 0.086 · 87.1 · 3.5% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.4% BRK 33.1% OFF 21.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L

17.2% 15.5% 28.1% 17.8% C+ 63 +235

Bryce Harper L

12.7% 12.5% 6.9% 11.5% C 52 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

136

Brandon Marsh L

6.8% 15.1% 3.6% 8.5% D 38 —

159

Alec Bohm R Edge

4.5% 6.7% 10.5% 5.7% D 35 +625

160

Trea Turner R Edge

8.1% 4.2% 2.4% 6.1% D 35 +525

167

Bryson Stott L

7.4% 3.6% 4.5% 5.8% D 34 +850

188

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

3.6% 6.0% 4.0% 4.2% D 29 +625

200

Justin Crawford L

1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.3% D 23 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Kikuchi's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.3% ← leak BRK 23.1% OFF 15.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

14.3% 8.2% 8.5% 11.8% D 45 +500

Mike Trout R

15.5% 21.2% 10.7% 16.1% D 43 +425

158

Josh Lowe L Edge

10.6% 4.5% 5.3% 8.0% D 35 +625

171

Vaughn Grissom R

8.5% 6.7% 2.5% 6.9% D 33 +850

184

Oswald Peraza R

6.0% 6.9% 10.3% 6.9% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.3% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Neto

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +235 · 63

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 1:07p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph out 91°F open

↑

10 mph · out

89°F

1:07p

↑

11 mph · out

92°F

2:07p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

90°F

3:07p

↑

12 mph · out

88°F

4:07p

↑

12 mph · out

87°F

5:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.40× 91°F, wind 10 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +7 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yusei Kikuchi · LHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 63 C+ +235 COOL 11 0.286 92.7 12.8% 37.1%vs LHP 403 23.0% 25.0% 24.1% 38

2 Bryce Harper 52 C +475 · 45 0.238 90.4 10.3% 11.4%vs LHP 402 19.1% 16.7% 13.1% 34

3 Brandon Marsh 38 D — COOL 136 0.157 89.4 8.9% 16.7%vs LHP 391 11.5% 0.0% 7.8% 28

4 Alec Bohm 35 D +625 · 159 0.137 90.4 7.2% 15.4%vs LHP 397 10.4% 9.1% 7.5% 36

5 Trea Turner 35 D +525 · 160 0.140 88.4 7.5% 8.3%vs LHP 392 12.6% 0.0% 6.9% 35

6 Bryson Stott 34 D +850 COOL 167 0.144 89.2 7.3% 11.1%vs LHP 385 7.2% 0.0% 6.6% 33

7 J.T. Realmuto 29 D +625 · 188 0.130 89.9 6.2% 3.9%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 28

8 Justin Crawford 23 D — COOL 200 0.086 87.1 3.5% 3.2% 382 2.0% 0.0% 5.3% 31

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.67 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 45 D +500 · 82 0.194 89.6 8.8% 18.4%vs RHP 404 16.3% 25.0% 16.0% 42

2 Mike Trout 43 D +425 COOL 96 0.190 90.0 10.3% 22.1%vs RHP 409 14.0% 0.0% 11.3% 29

3 Josh Lowe 35 D +625 COOL 158 0.145 88.7 7.2% 17.2%vs RHP 392 9.7% 8.3% 8.8% 24

4 Vaughn Grissom 33 D +850 COOL 171 0.140 87.8 6.8% 19.1%vs RHP 389 8.7% 8.3% 9.6% 34

5 Oswald Peraza 30 D — COOL 184 0.123 87.4 6.7% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.2% 0.0% 8.1% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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