TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.57×

MIA @ WSH

Nationals Park · 12:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 8 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+15 ↑

12:15p

+16 ↑

1:15p

+16 ↑

2:15p

+16 ↑

3:15p

+16 ↑

4:15p

the 1:15p window peaks +16

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 22 · vs Junk ⟷ Heriberto Hernández conv 18 · vs Alvarez → edge: Daylen Lile

ATTACK Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 80

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile +500 C ●●●○○

2 Keibert Ruiz +600 C ●●●○○

3 Cj Abrams +350 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 19

0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Heriberto Hernández +390 C ●●●○○

2 Javier Sanoja +750 D ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Daylen Lile: 8.8% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Daylen Lile ✶ vs Junk Edge +500 0.176 · 88.5 · 7.8% 23.1% 21.3% F B O C 55

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Junk Edge +600 0.171 · 88.2 · 5.7% 25.0% 17.6% F B O C 50

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Alvarez Edge +390 0.233 · 91.4 · 9.1% 0.0% 35.2% F B O C 55

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Junk Edge +350 0.242 · 89.4 · 8.3% 0.0% 21.7% F B O C+ 60

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Alvarez — 0.197 · 91.2 · 9.4% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 54

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Alvarez +400 0.215 · 92.2 · 8.6% 0.0% 14.5% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Alvarez Edge +750 0.141 · 86.9 · 3.7% 18.2% 9.6% F B O D 41

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Alvarez — 0.114 · 87.2 · 4.6% 12.5% 9.3% F B O D 39

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Junk +950 0.149 · 87.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 45

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Junk +425 0.147 · 90.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 49

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Alvarez Edge +1000 0.096 · 86.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 35

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Alvarez Edge +950 0.135 · 89.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 41

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Junk Edge — 0.034 · 85.1 · 1.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 52.8% FB 43.1% OFF 4.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

13.5% 12.8% 14.3% 13.1% C 55 +390

Kyle Stowers L

16.7% 11.2% 7.3% 11.9% C 55 +400

Owen Caissie L

8.9% 15.9% 17.1% 14.2% C 54 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

113

Otto Lopez R Edge

3.6% 8.8% 4.3% 6.3% D 41 +950

114

Javier Sanoja R Edge

3.0% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% D 41 +750

132

Jakob Marsee L

1.8% 3.1% 7.3% 3.4% D 39 —

161

Xavier Edwards S Edge

2.1% 4.0% 2.5% 3.3% D 35 +1000

Read the columns: no single family leads Alvarez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 42.3% ← leak FB 40.0% OFF 17.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Cj Abrams L Edge

8.9% 10.2% 11.8% 10.0% C+ 60 +350

Daylen Lile L Edge

12.9% 8.8% 4.0% 8.8% C 55 +500

Keibert Ruiz L Edge

4.2% 6.0% 2.0% 4.7% C 50 +600

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Dylan Crews R

17.8% 6.9% 9.1% 9.3% D 49 +425

Jacob Young R

3.4% 8.3% 2.9% 6.3% D 45 +950

195

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% D 26 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (42.3% usage) carries Junk's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hernández Sanoja Lile Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Junk fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Daylen Lile +500 · 55

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 12:15p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 8 mph out 82°F open

+15

↑

8 mph · out

78°F

12:15p

+16

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

1:15p · peak

+16

↑

9 mph · out

83°F

2:15p

+16

↑

8 mph · out

86°F

3:15p

+16

↑

8 mph · out

89°F

4:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.57× 82°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Heriberto Hernández 55 C +390 WARM 32 0.233 91.4 9.1% 41.7%vs LHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 35.2% 34

2 Kyle Stowers 55 C +400 HOT 34 0.215 92.2 8.6% 8.3%vs LHP 396 12.9% 0.0% 14.5% 8

3 Owen Caissie 54 C — COOL 40 0.197 91.2 9.4% 21.7% 398 13.8% 0.0% 16.0% 14

4 Otto Lopez 41 D +950 · 113 0.135 89.2 6.2% 6.9%vs LHP 402 6.1% 0.0% 8.1% 42

5 Javier Sanoja 41 D +750 · 114 0.141 86.9 3.7% 15.0%vs LHP 378 6.6% 18.2% 9.6% 41

6 Jakob Marsee 39 D — WARM 132 0.114 87.2 4.6% 11.1%vs LHP 381 7.5% 12.5% 9.3% 23

7 Xavier Edwards 35 D +1000 COOL 161 0.096 86.8 4.5% 19.1%vs LHP 396 3.8% 0.0% 9.4% 40

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 60 C+ +350 COOL 19 0.242 89.4 8.3% 28.1%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 21.7% 24

2 Daylen Lile ✶ 55 C +500 · 33 0.176 88.5 7.8% 14.0%vs RHP 401 11.6% 23.1% 21.3% 38

3 Keibert Ruiz 50 C +600 COOL 54 0.171 88.2 5.7% 9.7%vs RHP 377 10.8% 25.0% 17.6% 28

4 Dylan Crews 49 D +425 · 61 0.147 90.5 8.2% 11.9%vs RHP 407 14.1% 0.0% 10.8% 34

5 Jacob Young 45 D +950 COOL 86 0.149 87.8 6.6% 12.3%vs RHP 399 7.2% 0.0% 11.0% 28

6 Nasim Nunez 26 D — COOL 195 0.034 85.1 1.5% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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