TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.95×

LAD @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph cross 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:40p

-5 ↑

2:40p

-6 ↑

3:40p

-7 ↑

4:40p

-8 ↑

5:40p

best window is early — 1:40p at -4

Best of game Colt Keith conv 11 · vs Glasnow ⟷ Max Muncy conv 39 · vs Valdez → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Tyler Glasnow RHP · LAD

leak 100

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colt Keith +750 D ●●○○○

2 Dillon Dingler +700 D ●●○○○

3 Spencer Torkelson +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 80

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +425 C+ ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 28.4% · 14D pace 50.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Valdez — 0.245 · 90.5 · 9.0% 50.0% 28.4% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Valdez +425 0.254 · 93.5 · 10.0% 16.7% 29.6% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Colt Keith vs Glasnow Edge +750 0.147 · 89.0 · 7.2% 14.3% 8.4% F B O D 37

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Glasnow +700 0.224 · 88.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 20.8% F B O D 49

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Valdez Edge +625 0.166 · 90.0 · 6.7% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 41

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Glasnow +575 0.184 · 89.3 · 9.4% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 44

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Glasnow +750 0.122 · 86.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 34

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Valdez +850 0.157 · 89.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 40

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Valdez Edge +625 0.141 · 89.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 36

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle HOT vs Glasnow Edge +750 0.143 · 88.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 36

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Valdez +750 0.129 · 88.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 35

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Glasnow Edge — 0.101 · 85.7 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.6% BRK 33.3% OFF 19.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Max Muncy L

15.6% 13.6% 8.2% 13.3% C+ 61 —

Shohei Ohtani L

19.4% 11.2% 15.3% 16.2% C+ 60 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

115

Mookie Betts R Edge

8.1% 4.2% 7.9% 7.2% D 41 +625

119

Freddie Freeman L

8.7% 7.9% 7.7% 8.3% D 40 +850

155

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

9.0% 9.8% 6.2% 8.8% D 36 +625

162

Kyle Tucker L

8.1% 2.9% 1.3% 5.6% D 35 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Valdez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.6% ← leak BRK 46.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Dillon Dingler R

11.6% 8.2% 10.1% D 49 +700

Spencer Torkelson R

13.1% 10.8% 12.4% D 44 +575

145

Colt Keith L Edge

6.8% 15.2% 7.3% D 37 +750

156

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.6% 7.5% 7.2% D 36 +750

168

Gleyber Torres R

7.7% 4.9% 6.2% D 34 +750

197

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.0% 1.7% 2.2% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.6% usage) carries Glasnow's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Ohtani

Legend

attack side — vs Glasnow fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Max Muncy — · 61

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph cross 73°F open

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

72°F

1:40p · peak

-5

↑

6 mph · cross

73°F

2:40p

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

74°F

3:40p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

75°F

4:40p

-8

↑

8 mph · in

75°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 73°F, wind 5 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 61 C+ — · 14 0.245 90.5 9.0% 25.8%vs LHP 411 21.4% 50.0% 28.4% 53

2 Shohei Ohtani 60 C+ +425 · 20 0.254 93.5 10.0% 30.0%vs LHP 407 19.1% 16.7% 29.6% 34

3 Mookie Betts 41 D +625 COOL 115 0.166 90.0 6.7% 9.5%vs LHP 389 10.8% 8.3% 8.9% 45

4 Freddie Freeman 40 D +850 COOL 119 0.157 89.7 7.2% 12.5%vs LHP 398 9.8% 0.0% 9.1% 41

5 Teoscar Hernandez 36 D +625 COOL 155 0.141 89.4 7.3% 16.7%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 25

6 Kyle Tucker 35 D +750 COOL 162 0.129 88.8 5.9% 6.2%vs LHP 392 7.1% 0.0% 6.9% 38

vs Tyler Glasnow · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 49 D +700 COOL 63 0.224 88.4 8.5% 29.3%vs RHP 398 18.5% 0.0% 20.8% 28

2 Spencer Torkelson 44 D +575 COOL 92 0.184 89.3 9.4% 23.0%vs RHP 394 13.8% 0.0% 16.0% 15

3 Colt Keith 37 D +750 WARM 145 0.147 89.0 7.2% 13.2%vs RHP 385 6.5% 14.3% 8.4% 19

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 36 D +750 HOT 156 0.143 88.2 7.3% 9.7%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 7.3% 41

5 Gleyber Torres 34 D +750 · 168 0.122 86.3 6.9% 13.6%vs RHP 393 9.1% 0.0% 10.2% 37

6 Zach Mckinstry 25 D — COOL 197 0.101 85.7 4.0% 5.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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