TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.48×

BAL @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 4:05p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.24× Wind 4 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

1:05p

+13 ↑

2:05p

+15 ↑

3:05p

+17 ↑

4:05p

+18 ↑

5:05p

conditions build late — the 5:05p window peaks +18

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 37 · vs Springs ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 16 · vs Bassitt → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Jeffrey Springs LHP · ATH

leak 92

2.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso +235 B ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo +280 C+ ●●●●●

3 Colton Cowser — C+ ●●●●○

FADE Chris Bassitt RHP · BAL

leak 3

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +500 D ●●○○○

2 Zack Gelof +500 C ●●○○○

3 Carlos Cortes +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 14.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Springs Edge +235 0.236 · 94.2 · 11.2% 38.5% 35.5% F B O B 75

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Springs Edge +280 0.225 · 91.9 · 10.7% 27.3% 42.1% F B O C+ 69

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Springs — 0.151 · 87.8 · 9.8% 33.3% 24.7% F B O C+ 61

· ATH Zack Gelof COOL vs Bassitt +500 0.196 · 88.8 · 6.7% 8.3% 12.9% F B O C 54

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Springs — 0.201 · 90.7 · 10.7% 0.0% 17.9% F B O C+ 62

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Springs +400 0.172 · 89.7 · 7.9% 0.0% 16.6% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Bassitt Edge +500 0.142 · 89.3 · 6.5% 15.4% 15.7% F B O D 49

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Bassitt Edge +575 0.146 · 89.1 · 6.0% 9.1% 11.7% F B O D 46

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Springs Edge +700 0.132 · 88.2 · 6.2% 8.3% 9.8% F B O D 47

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Springs +525 0.120 · 87.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 47

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Bassitt Edge +625 0.095 · 86.6 · 3.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Bassitt +700 0.100 · 91.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.9% ← leak BRK 29.9% OFF 24.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.5% 10.6% 15.9% 14.1% B 75 +235

Neutral · 4

Coby Mayo R Edge

11.3% 15.5% 12.9% 13.0% C+ 69 +280

Samuel Basallo L

15.1% 10.9% 10.4% 12.8% C+ 62 —

Colton Cowser L

13.3% 13.3% 3.9% 10.8% C+ 61 —

Gunnar Henderson L

7.3% 6.1% 7.1% 6.9% C 56 +400

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Jackson Holliday L

6.8% 4.3% 7.3% 6.3% D 47 +525

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.5% 8.2% 0.0% 4.3% D 47 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.9% usage) carries Springs's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.3% ← leak BRK 30.1% OFF 5.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Zack Gelof R

9.0% 4.4% 15.8% 8.1% C 54 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L Edge

7.7% 10.9% 3.4% 7.4% D 49 +500

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.6% 3.6% 7.4% 6.6% D 46 +575

100

Henry Bolte R

6.9% 9.4% 3.7% 7.1% D 43 +700

139

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.5% 2.9% 1.4% 1.8% D 37 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.3% usage) carries Bassitt's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Cowser Butler

Legend

attack side — vs Springs fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Alonso +235 · 75

Coby Mayo +280 · 69

Colton Cowser — · 61

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.24× Wind 4 mph out 85°F open

+11

↑

4 mph · out

83°F

1:05p

+13

↑

4 mph · out

88°F

2:05p

+15

↑

6 mph · out

87°F

3:05p

+17

↑

8 mph · out

86°F

4:05p

+18

↑

10 mph · out

85°F

5:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.48× 85°F, wind 4 mph W (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jeffrey Springs · LHP 2.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.28 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 75 B +235 · 1 0.236 94.2 11.2% 19.1%vs LHP 402 21.5% 38.5% 35.5% 36

2 Coby Mayo 69 C+ +280 WARM 4 0.225 91.9 10.7% 41.2%vs LHP 413 16.7% 27.3% 42.1% 27

3 Samuel Basallo 62 C+ — COOL 13 0.201 90.7 10.7% 20.0%vs LHP 399 14.8% 0.0% 17.9% 20

4 Colton Cowser 61 C+ — WARM 15 0.151 87.8 9.8% 28.6%vs LHP 414 16.9% 33.3% 24.7% 26

5 Gunnar Henderson 56 C +400 COOL 31 0.172 89.7 7.9% 28.0%vs LHP 391 14.3% 0.0% 16.6% 37

6 Jackson Holliday 47 D +525 COOL 75 0.120 87.1 7.4% 8.3%vs LHP 388 3.8% 0.0% 9.8% 48

7 Leody Taveras 47 D +700 · 76 0.132 88.2 6.2% 6.7%vs LHP 403 5.2% 8.3% 9.8% 36

vs Chris Bassitt · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 54 C +500 COOL 38 0.196 88.8 6.7% 26.2%vs RHP 398 18.4% 8.3% 12.9% 37

2 Lawrence Butler 49 D +500 · 56 0.142 89.3 6.5% 20.0%vs RHP 410 8.6% 15.4% 15.7% 31

3 Carlos Cortes 46 D +575 COOL 77 0.146 89.1 6.0% 15.7%vs RHP 401 5.2% 9.1% 11.7% 29

4 Henry Bolte 43 D +700 COOL 100 0.100 91.0 6.3% 4.3%vs RHP 410 9.1% 0.0% 6.3% 37

5 Jeff Mcneil 37 D +625 WARM 139 0.095 86.6 3.2% 10.5%vs RHP 381 4.8% 0.0% 9.8% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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