TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.04×

CWS @ MIN

Target Field · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

1:10p

-7 ↑

2:10p

-7 ↑

3:10p

-7 ↑

4:10p

-7 ↑

5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -7 FIT

Best of game Tristan Peters conv 31 · vs Matthews ⟷ Brooks Lee conv 31 · vs Hicks → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 91

1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tristan Peters +700 C ●●●●●

2 Munetaka Murakami +305 C+ ●●●●○

3 Colson Montgomery +400 C ●●●○○

FADE Jordan Hicks RHP · CWS

leak 40

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brooks Lee +625 D ●●●●●

2 Kody Clemens +500 D ●●○○○

3 Trevor Larnach +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 19.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Matthews Edge +700 0.190 · 87.4 · 7.9% 41.7% 20.4% F B O C 51

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Matthews Edge +305 0.284 · 94.0 · 14.6% 15.4% 31.2% F B O C+ 68

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Matthews Edge +400 0.218 · 89.1 · 11.6% 18.2% 26.5% F B O C 59

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Matthews +400 0.244 · 90.6 · 12.4% 15.4% 20.1% F B O C+ 62

· MIN Byron Buxton COOL vs Hicks — 0.257 · 90.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Hicks Edge +625 0.194 · 88.0 · 3.9% 41.7% 20.0% F B O D 45

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Hicks Edge +500 0.227 · 92.4 · 6.6% 16.7% 15.4% F B O D 48

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Matthews Edge +525 0.176 · 88.9 · 9.3% 11.1% 18.5% F B O D 49

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Hicks Edge +575 0.157 · 87.7 · 5.3% 11.1% 8.9% F B O D 37

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Hicks Edge +500 0.168 · 89.7 · 6.0% 9.1% 9.9% F B O D 39

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Matthews Edge +750 0.137 · 89.0 · 6.8% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 39

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Hicks +850 0.109 · 85.4 · 3.7% 8.3% 6.8% F B O D 29

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Hicks +500 0.167 · 89.8 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 39

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Matthews +950 0.129 · 87.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Matthews Edge +850 0.125 · 87.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 38

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Hicks Edge — 0.103 · 89.5 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.5% ← leak BRK 34.7% OFF 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.9% 16.4% 15.4% 19.7% C+ 68 +305

Miguel Vargas R

16.5% 11.0% 13.2% 14.5% C+ 62 +400

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.5% 10.8% 13.3% 12.2% C 59 +400

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.3% 4.5% 2.2% 5.9% C 51 +700

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

11.3% 4.3% 5.2% 8.2% D 49 +525

129

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.6% 2.4% 4.1% 4.5% D 39 +750

135

Sam Antonacci L Edge

6.7% 4.7% 0.0% 5.3% D 38 +850

142

Chase Meidroth R

4.2% 5.6% 3.6% 4.4% D 37 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.0% BRK 32.1% OFF 3.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Byron Buxton R

17.7% 13.8% 11.8% 15.8% C 51 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 18.9% 10.9% 11.7% D 48 +500

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.9% 0.0% 1.0% 4.1% D 45 +625

127

Josh Bell S Edge

10.5% 11.8% 6.0% 9.7% D 39 +500

128

Royce Lewis R

13.7% 6.6% 9.1% 11.1% D 39 +500

143

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.0% 8.6% 4.4% 7.5% D 37 +575

190

Luke Keaschall R

4.5% 3.0% 0.0% 3.6% D 29 +850

191

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 11.4% 5.7% 6.5% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Hicks's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Montgomery Peters Benintendi Clemens Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Matthews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Tristan Peters +700 · 51

Brooks Lee +625 · 45

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 84°F open

-7

↑

6 mph · in

79°F

1:10p · peak

-7

↑

7 mph · in

83°F

2:10p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

88°F

3:10p

-7

↑

9 mph · in

91°F

4:10p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

91°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 84°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 68 C+ +305 · 5 0.284 94.0 14.6% 39.0%vs RHP 404 18.8% 15.4% 31.2% 26

2 Miguel Vargas 62 C+ +400 · 12 0.244 90.6 12.4% 17.0%vs RHP 393 20.5% 15.4% 20.1% 34

3 Colson Montgomery 59 C +400 · 22 0.218 89.1 11.6% 25.3%vs RHP 398 21.6% 18.2% 26.5% 20

4 Tristan Peters 51 C +700 WARM 47 0.190 87.4 7.9% 14.9%vs RHP 377 12.4% 41.7% 20.4% 33

5 Andrew Benintendi 49 D +525 · 62 0.176 88.9 9.3% 16.5%vs RHP 388 13.6% 11.1% 18.5% 25

6 Braden Montgomery 39 D +750 · 129 0.137 89.0 6.8% 16.0%vs RHP 390 6.4% 8.3% 8.8% 40

7 Sam Antonacci 38 D +850 COOL 135 0.125 87.3 7.5% 12.5%vs RHP 390 8.3% 0.0% 8.1% 33

8 Chase Meidroth 37 D +950 COOL 142 0.129 87.7 6.9% 16.0%vs RHP 379 7.8% 0.0% 8.9% 40

vs Jordan Hicks · RHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 51 C — COOL 50 0.257 90.2 7.7% 30.0%vs RHP 402 25.3% 0.0% 16.0% 22

2 Kody Clemens 48 D +500 WARM 66 0.227 92.4 6.6% 19.1%vs RHP 391 16.9% 16.7% 15.4% 35

3 Brooks Lee 45 D +625 HOT 80 0.194 88.0 3.9% 22.4%vs RHP 372 16.9% 41.7% 20.0% 38

4 Josh Bell 39 D +500 COOL 127 0.168 89.7 6.0% 19.1%vs RHP 407 11.2% 9.1% 9.9% 34

5 Royce Lewis 39 D +500 COOL 128 0.167 89.8 6.4% 15.8%vs RHP 400 14.1% 0.0% 9.3% 38

6 Trevor Larnach 37 D +575 WARM 143 0.157 87.7 5.3% 16.1%vs RHP 395 9.6% 11.1% 8.9% 23

7 Luke Keaschall 29 D +850 HOT 190 0.109 85.4 3.7% 10.7%vs RHP 374 6.8% 8.3% 6.8% 42

8 Victor Caratini 28 D — COOL 191 0.103 89.5 4.9% 16.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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