TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.95×

SEA @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 1:37p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 2 mph out 71°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

1:37p

+2 ↑

2:37p

+2 ↑

3:37p

+3 ↑

4:37p

+2 ↑

5:37p

conditions build late — the 4:37p window peaks +3

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 32 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Nathan Lukes conv 26 · vs Gilbert → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 87

2.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh +280 C ●●●●●

2 Randy Arozarena +500 C ●●●●○

3 Dominic Canzone +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 83

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathan Lukes — D ●●●●○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +425 C ●●●●○

3 George Springer +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 18.6% · 14D pace 45.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ HOT vs Scherzer Edge +280 0.173 · 89.6 · 11.2% 45.5% 18.6% F B O C 57

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Gilbert +425 0.212 · 90.4 · 11.3% 25.0% 25.4% F B O C 56

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Scherzer +500 0.188 · 90.7 · 8.2% 25.0% 24.8% F B O C 54

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Scherzer Edge +350 0.226 · 91.2 · 10.5% 9.1% 16.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TOR Nathan Lukes HOT vs Gilbert Edge — 0.126 · 86.9 · 4.9% 37.5% 13.6% F B O D 36

· TOR George Springer vs Gilbert +500 0.164 · 88.2 · 8.2% 22.2% 13.1% F B O D 43

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Scherzer +425 0.159 · 89.9 · 9.2% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 49

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Scherzer Edge +575 0.142 · 88.6 · 6.5% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 43

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Scherzer Edge +950 0.130 · 87.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 39

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Gilbert Edge +500 0.163 · 90.8 · 10.4% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 43

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Scherzer Edge +575 0.098 · 87.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 36

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero COOL vs Gilbert — 0.093 · 90.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Gilbert Edge +950 0.115 · 85.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 29

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Gilbert +850 0.114 · 84.3 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Gilbert — 0.117 · 85.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.7% BRK 32.1% OFF 16.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dominic Canzone L Edge

15.0% 10.5% 8.2% 12.3% C 57 +350

Cal Raleigh S Edge

13.5% 17.0% 12.5% 14.1% C 57 +280

Randy Arozarena R

8.0% 7.7% 6.3% 7.6% C 54 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Julio Rodríguez R

10.1% 7.7% 10.6% 9.5% D 49 +425

Cole Young L Edge

4.0% 9.5% 1.5% 4.7% D 43 +575

122

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.2% 7.0% 11.1% 6.3% D 39 +950

151

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.2% 7.8% 1.4% 4.5% D 36 +575

Read the columns: no single family leads Scherzer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.5% ← leak BRK 31.8% OFF 22.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

13.8% 9.7% 21.4% 13.3% C 56 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

George Springer R

6.7% 7.1% 6.5% 6.8% D 43 +500

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

10.8% 18.3% 0.0% 11.3% D 43 +500

147

Nathan Lukes L Edge

1.2% 3.3% 5.9% 2.5% D 36 —

178

Vladimir Guerrero R

6.8% 8.5% 1.9% 6.6% D 31 —

181

Myles Straw R

4.1% 0.0% 5.0% 3.4% D 31 —

185

Ernie Clement R

2.3% 2.2% 1.6% 2.2% D 30 +850

189

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.9% 2.1% 4.2% 3.4% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.5% usage) carries Gilbert's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Arozarena Okamoto Springer Lukes

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Cal Raleigh +280 · 57

Kazuma Okamoto +425 · 56

Randy Arozarena +500 · 54

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 1:37p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 2 mph out 71°F retractable

↑

2 mph · out

70°F

1:37p

↑

3 mph · out

70°F

2:37p

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

3:37p

↑

5 mph · out

68°F

4:37p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

68°F

5:37p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 71°F, wind 2 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 2.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 57 C +350 COOL 25 0.226 91.2 10.5% 25.4%vs RHP 404 15.5% 9.1% 16.2% 31

2 Cal Raleigh ✶ 57 C +280 HOT 26 0.173 89.6 11.2% 15.8%vs RHP 387 15.6% 45.5% 18.6% 21

3 Randy Arozarena 54 C +500 COOL 36 0.188 90.7 8.2% 26.3%vs RHP 386 14.5% 25.0% 24.8% 33

4 Julio Rodríguez 49 D +425 WARM 59 0.159 89.9 9.2% 19.7%vs RHP 404 16.0% 8.3% 11.6% 32

5 Cole Young 43 D +575 COOL 99 0.142 88.6 6.5% 18.2%vs RHP 383 11.6% 9.1% 9.3% 30

6 J.P. Crawford 39 D +950 WARM 122 0.130 87.7 7.5% 24.3%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 7

7 Josh Naylor 36 D +575 COOL 151 0.098 87.3 6.3% 11.3%vs RHP 392 6.2% 0.0% 7.8% 41

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 56 C +425 WARM 30 0.212 90.4 11.3% 26.7%vs RHP 400 17.5% 25.0% 25.4% 35

2 George Springer 43 D +500 · 94 0.164 88.2 8.2% 21.8%vs RHP 395 11.6% 22.2% 13.1% 34

3 Jesús Sánchez 43 D +500 · 97 0.163 90.8 10.4% 19.1%vs RHP 398 9.6% 0.0% 10.3% 12

4 Nathan Lukes 36 D — HOT 147 0.126 86.9 4.9% 16.4%vs RHP 382 8.7% 37.5% 13.6% 29

5 Vladimir Guerrero 31 D — COOL 178 0.093 90.0 8.0% 11.5%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 26

6 Myles Straw 31 D — COOL 181 0.117 85.8 5.8% 5.0%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 22

7 Ernie Clement 30 D +850 COOL 185 0.114 84.3 4.6% 6.0%vs RHP 376 7.1% 0.0% 7.0% 38

8 Andres Gimenez 29 D +950 COOL 189 0.115 85.8 5.8% 9.8%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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