TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.42×

CIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:20p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 9 mph out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

6:20p

+11 ↑

7:20p

+9 ↑

8:20p

+9 ↑

9:20p

+8 ↑

10:20p

best window is early — 6:20p at +12

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 30 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 41 · vs Burns → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 87

1.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jj Bleday +370 C ●●●○○

3 Matt Mclain +525 C ●●●○○

FADE Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 84

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +265 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ian Happ +425 C ●●●●●

3 Michael Busch +425 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 12.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Burns Edge +265 0.271 · 90.1 · 9.9% 50.0% 32.9% F B O C+ 68

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Burns Edge +425 0.204 · 89.3 · 9.5% 33.3% 27.7% F B O C 58

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Imanaga Edge +290 0.214 · 90.1 · 11.1% 28.6% 30.6% F B O C+ 65

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Imanaga +370 0.214 · 88.7 · 9.7% 20.0% 18.2% F B O C 58

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Imanaga Edge +525 0.155 · 88.1 · 9.7% 20.0% 13.6% F B O C 51

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Burns +330 0.210 · 88.3 · 9.1% 16.7% 15.7% F B O C 54

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Imanaga Edge +290 0.207 · 93.8 · 11.3% 7.1% 18.6% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Tyler Stephenson COOL vs Imanaga Edge +390 0.167 · 91.0 · 10.8% 8.3% 17.2% F B O C 54

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Imanaga Edge +320 0.200 · 88.4 · 10.0% 0.0% 24.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· CHC Michael Busch vs Burns Edge +425 0.154 · 88.3 · 8.6% 27.3% 18.1% F B O D 49

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Burns +500 0.160 · 88.1 · 6.4% 25.0% 16.2% F B O D 46

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Burns — 0.114 · 87.2 · 6.6% 22.2% 9.6% F B O D 40

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Imanaga Edge +475 0.104 · 89.1 · 6.7% 12.5% 11.1% F B O D 42

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Burns — 0.096 · 85.9 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.6% ← leak OFF 32.6% BRK 19.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Sal Stewart R Edge

16.3% 7.1% 9.4% 12.7% C+ 65 +290

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.0% 5.6% 11.1% 13.2% C+ 60 +290

Jj Bleday L

12.6% 5.1% 6.5% 9.6% C 58 +370

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

15.6% 5.0% 7.0% 12.1% C 54 +390

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

12.3% 5.0% 6.5% 10.4% C 52 +320

Matt Mclain R Edge

11.2% 4.0% 10.2% 10.1% C 51 +525

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

105

Dane Myers R Edge

4.3% 5.3% 5.5% 4.8% D 42 +475

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.6% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.2% ← leak BRK 38.4% OFF 5.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.9% 15.2% 12.2% 12.3% C+ 68 +265

Ian Happ S Edge

15.2% 14.1% 2.5% 11.5% C 58 +425

Seiya Suzuki R

11.0% 8.7% 12.0% 10.3% C 54 +330

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Michael Busch L Edge

12.1% 5.0% 2.0% 9.1% D 49 +425

Alex Bregman R

3.9% 7.3% 7.9% 5.2% D 46 +500

118

Carson Kelly R

6.4% 3.9% 5.3% 5.6% D 40 —

187

Nico Hoerner R

1.3% 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.2% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Bleday Mclain Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Busch Bregman Kelly

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong +265 · 68

Ian Happ +425 · 58

Sal Stewart +290 · 65

Jj Bleday +370 · 58

Michael Busch +425 · 49

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:20p · roof open

Park 1.09× Wind 9 mph out 81°F open

+12

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

6:20p · peak

+11

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

7:20p

↑

7 mph · out

78°F

8:20p

↑

7 mph · out

77°F

9:20p

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

10:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.42× 81°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 65 C+ +290 · 7 0.214 90.1 11.1% 29.6%vs LHP 395 18.2% 28.6% 30.6% 45

2 Elly De La Cruz 60 C+ +290 COOL 17 0.207 93.8 11.3% 36.0%vs LHP 398 15.5% 7.1% 18.6% 39

3 Jj Bleday 58 C +370 COOL 24 0.214 88.7 9.7% 25.0%vs LHP 387 20.0% 20.0% 18.2% 36

4 Tyler Stephenson 54 C +390 COOL 37 0.167 91.0 10.8% 5.0%vs LHP 392 9.3% 8.3% 17.2% 23

5 Eugenio Suarez 52 C +320 COOL 43 0.200 88.4 10.0% 25.0%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 24.2% 27

6 Matt Mclain 51 C +525 COOL 46 0.155 88.1 9.7% 21.7%vs LHP 394 14.3% 20.0% 13.6% 36

7 Dane Myers 42 D +475 COOL 105 0.104 89.1 6.7% 12.0%vs LHP 384 5.2% 12.5% 11.1% 33

vs Chase Burns · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 68 C+ +265 WARM 6 0.271 90.1 9.9% 24.2%vs RHP 393 22.1% 50.0% 32.9% 41

2 Ian Happ 58 C +425 COOL 23 0.204 89.3 9.5% 25.3%vs RHP 402 18.3% 33.3% 27.7% 30

3 Seiya Suzuki 54 C +330 COOL 39 0.210 88.3 9.1% 21.1%vs RHP 406 16.8% 16.7% 15.7% 33

4 Michael Busch 49 D +425 WARM 55 0.154 88.3 8.6% 13.5%vs RHP 401 13.2% 27.3% 18.1% 29

5 Alex Bregman 46 D +500 WARM 78 0.160 88.1 6.4% 19.8%vs RHP 389 12.0% 25.0% 16.2% 44

6 Carson Kelly 40 D — WARM 118 0.114 87.2 6.6% 8.1%vs RHP 410 8.3% 22.2% 9.6% 28

7 Nico Hoerner 30 D — WARM 187 0.096 85.9 3.1% 6.9%vs RHP 381 5.3% 0.0% 6.5% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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