TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.59×

BOS @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 11 mph out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

1:35p

+14 ↑

2:35p

+14 ↑

3:35p

+15 ↑

4:35p

+14 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks +15

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 23 · vs Warren ⟷ Ben Rice conv 29 · vs Suarez → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 93

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.66 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jarren Duran +525 C ●●●○○

3 Wilyer Abreu +330 C ●●○○○

FADE Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 87

0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Paul Goldschmidt +525 C ●●●●○

3 Trent Grisham +400 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Suarez +370 0.276 · 92.2 · 8.6% 23.1% 35.9% F B O C+ 63

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Suarez Edge +525 0.208 · 86.7 · 7.2% 25.0% 25.3% F B O C 50

· BOS Willson Contreras COOL vs Warren +390 0.242 · 89.8 · 10.3% 18.2% 27.8% F B O C+ 63

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Warren Edge +525 0.157 · 89.8 · 8.7% 22.2% 18.4% F B O C 51

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Warren Edge +330 0.208 · 89.9 · 9.9% 15.4% 14.8% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Suarez +400 0.194 · 90.7 · 6.9% 16.7% 16.9% F B O D 48

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Suarez +750 0.162 · 89.1 · 5.6% 14.3% 10.8% F B O D 41

· NYY Jazz Chisholm vs Suarez — 0.174 · 90.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 42

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Warren +700 0.168 · 86.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 45

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Warren +850 0.140 · 83.6 · 4.6% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 39

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Warren — 0.155 · 87.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 44

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Suarez Edge +950 0.135 · 83.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 32

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Suarez — 0.112 · 89.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.8% ← leak BRK 24.8% OFF 12.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Willson Contreras R

11.0% 14.3% 22.5% 13.4% C+ 63 +390

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.2% 16.0% 11.6% 12.4% C 57 +330

Jarren Duran L Edge

11.8% 8.4% 6.8% 9.8% C 51 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.3% 6.7% 11.1% 5.5% D 45 +700

Andruw Monasterio R

7.3% 6.2% 11.8% 7.2% D 44 —

126

Caleb Durbin R

3.0% 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% D 39 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.8% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.6% ← leak BRK 20.4% OFF 14.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L

17.4% 12.5% 11.7% 15.0% C+ 63 +370

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

13.8% 4.5% 8.8% 10.3% C 50 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L

11.2% 6.9% 6.8% 9.8% D 48 +400

106

Jazz Chisholm L

7.2% 13.0% 6.8% 9.0% D 42 —

109

Cody Bellinger L

4.1% 11.3% 8.6% 6.5% D 41 +750

149

Austin Wells L

8.5% 5.1% 0.0% 6.4% D 36 —

172

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 32 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.6% usage) carries Suarez's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Abreu Duran Rice Goldschmidt Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Warren fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ben Rice +370 · 63

Paul Goldschmidt +525 · 50

Jarren Duran +525 · 51

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 11 mph out 78°F open

+13

↑

11 mph · out

74°F

1:35p

+14

↑

12 mph · out

76°F

2:35p

+14

↑

12 mph · out

78°F

3:35p

+15

↑

12 mph · out

80°F

4:35p · peak

+14

↑

11 mph · out

80°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.59× 78°F, wind 11 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.66 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 63 C+ +390 COOL 10 0.242 89.8 10.3% 31.1%vs RHP 405 19.4% 18.2% 27.8% 31

2 Wilyer Abreu 57 C +330 COOL 27 0.208 89.9 9.9% 16.5%vs RHP 407 16.7% 15.4% 14.8% 37

3 Jarren Duran 51 C +525 · 48 0.157 89.8 8.7% 28.1%vs RHP 399 13.6% 22.2% 18.4% 28

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 45 D +700 · 83 0.168 86.4 6.5% 16.0%vs RHP 382 12.2% 0.0% 12.5% 47

5 Andruw Monasterio 44 D — COOL 91 0.155 87.9 7.5% 2.1%vs RHP 390 10.3% 0.0% 9.2% 40

6 Caleb Durbin 39 D +850 COOL 126 0.140 83.6 4.6% 18.4%vs RHP 376 8.7% 0.0% 10.7% 39

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 63 C+ +370 · 9 0.276 92.2 8.6% 35.7%vs LHP 394 24.0% 23.1% 35.9% 36

2 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C +525 WARM 51 0.208 86.7 7.2% 32.3%vs LHP 392 16.4% 25.0% 25.3% 9

3 Trent Grisham 48 D +400 COOL 67 0.194 90.7 6.9% 12.0%vs LHP 388 13.8% 16.7% 16.9% 31

4 Jazz Chisholm 42 D — · 106 0.174 90.8 6.6% 18.5%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 29

5 Cody Bellinger 41 D +750 COOL 109 0.162 89.1 5.6% 12.1%vs LHP 378 9.5% 14.3% 10.8% 23

6 Austin Wells 36 D — COOL 149 0.112 89.1 5.6% 11.8%vs LHP 387 8.3% 0.0% 8.7% 20

7 Jose Caballero 32 D +950 COOL 172 0.135 83.9 4.5% 25.0%vs LHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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