TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ STL

Busch Stadium is live · 1.24×

PIT @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 8 mph out 93°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:15p

+3 ↑

2:15p

+3 ↑

3:15p

+3 ↑

4:15p

+3 ↑

5:15p

the 2:15p window peaks +3

Best of game Oneil Cruz conv 32 · vs Liberatore ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 25 · vs Ashcraft → edge: Oneil Cruz

ATTACK Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 97

1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · leakiest side of this game

1 Oneil Cruz +350 C ●●●●●

2 Brandon Lowe — C ●●●○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Braxton Ashcraft RHP · PIT

leak 74

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +425 C ●●●●○

2 Nolan Gorman +500 D ●●●○○

3 Alec Burleson +390 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Oneil Cruz: 17.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Oneil Cruz ✶ COOL vs Liberatore +350 0.225 · 95.9 · 12.7% 33.3% 30.6% F B O C 59

· STL Jordan Walker vs Ashcraft +425 0.214 · 92.5 · 9.4% 28.6% 21.4% F B O C 50

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Liberatore — 0.221 · 91.1 · 10.4% 20.0% 22.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Ashcraft Edge +500 0.137 · 89.2 · 8.2% 25.0% 13.0% F B O D 36

· STL Alec Burleson vs Ashcraft Edge +390 0.191 · 92.0 · 8.5% 7.7% 11.5% F B O D 42

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +850 0.130 · 85.7 · 6.5% 10.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· STL José Fermín vs Ashcraft — 0.119 · 86.3 · 4.1% 10.0% 6.0% F B O D 27

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Liberatore Edge +525 0.161 · 90.5 · 10.0% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 41

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Liberatore — 0.139 · 86.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Ashcraft Edge +700 0.130 · 89.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 31

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Ashcraft +750 0.132 · 89.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 27

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Liberatore Edge — 0.088 · 85.3 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.088 · 86.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 26

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Liberatore Edge +850 0.065 · 86.9 · 4.6% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.4% ← leak BRK 41.9% OFF 14.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Oneil Cruz L

17.9% 19.6% 12.9% 17.5% C 59 +350

Brandon Lowe L

15.5% 7.5% 10.0% 11.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

112

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.9% 12.1% 7.7% 11.0% D 41 +525

157

Spencer Horwitz L

6.7% 5.9% 9.7% 6.8% D 35 —

194

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.1% 4.4% 0.0% 2.6% D 26 —

196

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.4% 1.1% 0.0% 2.1% D 25 —

198

Jared Triolo R Edge

2.8% 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% D 24 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.4% usage) carries Liberatore's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 48.9% FB 46.7% OFF 4.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

11.8% 14.1% 15.4% 13.4% C 50 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

103

Alec Burleson L Edge

10.7% 11.9% 10.3% 11.2% D 42 +390

148

Nolan Gorman L Edge

3.4% 14.7% 6.2% 10.3% D 36 +500

176

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

3.8% 10.5% 1.8% 7.6% D 31 +700

180

Nathan Church L Edge

6.8% 7.2% 4.3% 6.4% D 31 +850

192

Ivan Herrera R

4.3% 6.1% 6.5% 5.5% D 27 +750

193

José Fermín R

1.8% 3.5% 0.0% 2.6% D 27 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Ashcraft's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Lowe Walker Gorman

Legend

attack side — vs Liberatore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Oneil Cruz +350 · 59

Jordan Walker +425 · 50

Brandon Lowe — · 53

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 8 mph out 93°F open

↑

8 mph · out

86°F

1:15p

↑

9 mph · out

89°F

2:15p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

92°F

3:15p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

94°F

4:15p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

92°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 93°F, wind 8 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz ✶ 59 C +350 COOL 21 0.225 95.9 12.7% 44.4%vs LHP 413 24.6% 33.3% 30.6% 20

2 Brandon Lowe 53 C — COOL 41 0.221 91.1 10.4% 15.6%vs LHP 391 17.2% 20.0% 22.6% 21

3 Bryan Reynolds 41 D +525 · 112 0.161 90.5 10.0% 16.7%vs LHP 409 10.5% 0.0% 8.7% 37

4 Spencer Horwitz 35 D — COOL 157 0.139 86.8 7.8% 10.0%vs LHP 395 9.4% 0.0% 7.8% 27

5 Nick Gonzales 26 D — COOL 194 0.088 86.0 4.9% 3.2%vs LHP 397 6.3% 0.0% 5.7% 29

6 Jake Mangum 25 D — WARM 196 0.088 85.3 4.4% 5.9%vs LHP 393 4.4% 0.0% 6.0% 22

7 Jared Triolo 24 D +850 COOL 198 0.065 86.9 4.6% 0.0%vs LHP 407 1.3% 0.0% 5.3% 35

vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 50 C +425 · 52 0.214 92.5 9.4% 26.8%vs RHP 406 17.7% 28.6% 21.4% 43

2 Alec Burleson 42 D +390 · 103 0.191 92.0 8.5% 21.9%vs RHP 405 14.6% 7.7% 11.5% 42

3 Nolan Gorman 36 D +500 WARM 148 0.137 89.2 8.2% 16.7%vs RHP 405 9.7% 25.0% 13.0% 8

4 Jj Wetherholt 31 D +700 WARM 176 0.130 89.9 7.0% 15.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 7.3% 40

5 Nathan Church 31 D +850 COOL 180 0.130 85.7 6.5% 15.1%vs RHP 386 8.5% 10.0% 7.2% 32

6 Ivan Herrera 27 D +750 COOL 192 0.132 89.2 6.0% 17.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 34

7 José Fermín 27 D — WARM 193 0.119 86.3 4.1% 6.9%vs RHP 390 6.2% 10.0% 6.0% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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