TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.17×

COL @ ATL

Truist Park · 1:35p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph in 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

1:35p

-2 ↑

2:35p

-1 ↑

3:35p

+1 ↑

4:35p

+1 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks +1

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 39 · vs Mahle ⟷ Matt Olson conv 18 · vs Proxy → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 88

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +305 B ●●●●●

2 Mickey Moniak +425 C+ ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro +700 D ●●○○○

FADE COL Bullpen Proxy · COL

leak 56

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +305 B ●●●○○

2 Drake Baldwin +400 C+ ●●○○○

3 Michael Harris — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 17.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Mahle +305 0.293 · 90.4 · 10.9% 40.0% 37.8% F B O B 70

· — Mickey Moniak vs Mahle Edge +425 0.262 · 89.7 · 8.6% 18.2% 22.7% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Matt Olson vs Proxy +305 0.274 · 92.7 · 15.6% 15.4% 21.2% F B O B 74

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Proxy +400 0.180 · 91.9 · 13.1% 15.4% 13.2% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Proxy — 0.200 · 90.5 · 10.7% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 52

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Proxy — 0.175 · 90.2 · 12.8% 0.0% 11.9% F B O C 52

· ATL Austin Riley vs Proxy +500 0.140 · 91.4 · 11.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Willi Castro vs Mahle Edge +700 0.159 · 87.5 · 7.6% 15.4% 12.1% F B O D 47

· — Troy Johnston vs Mahle Edge — 0.118 · 89.6 · 4.2% 14.3% 7.4% F B O D 36

· — Ezequiel Tovar vs Mahle +750 0.126 · 87.5 · 6.9% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 41

· — Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Mahle Edge +850 0.183 · 85.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 44

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Proxy +575 0.161 · 86.9 · 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 43

· — Tj Rumfield vs Mahle Edge +850 0.150 · 84.0 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Proxy +525 0.151 · 90.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 45

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Proxy — 0.124 · 87.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 41

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Proxy +850 0.121 · 86.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for COL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 65.1% ← leak OFF 27.4% BRK 6.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

19.2% 8.8% 16.5% 17.0% B 70 +305

Neutral · 1

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.0% 1.9% 19.6% 9.7% C+ 60 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Willi Castro S Edge

10.7% 4.8% 6.5% 8.3% D 47 +700

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.0% 5.6% 2.3% 5.0% D 44 +850

110

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.5% 6.7% 7.1% 6.8% D 41 +750

117

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.3% 5.2% 1.7% 4.2% D 40 +850

153

Troy Johnston L Edge

3.0% 1.5% 2.3% 2.5% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.1% usage) carries Mahle's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Goodman Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman +305 · 70

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph in 84°F open

-2

↑

6 mph · in

80°F

1:35p

-2

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5 mph · in

82°F

2:35p

-1

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

3:35p

↑

3 mph · in

84°F

4:35p · peak

↑

3 mph · in

85°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 84°F, wind 6 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs COL Bullpen Proxy 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 74 B +305 · 2 0.274 92.7 15.6% 22.4% 408 24.1% 15.4% 21.2% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 60 C+ +400 · 28 0.180 91.9 13.1% 22.0% 402 16.4% 15.4% 13.2% 40

3 Michael Harris 52 C — COOL 64 0.200 90.5 10.7% 19.6% 397 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 43

4 Ronald Acuna 52 C — COOL 65 0.175 90.2 12.8% 16.7% 404 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 30

5 Austin Riley 51 C +500 WARM 70 0.140 91.4 11.9% 12.2% 407 9.0% 0.0% 8.9% 23

6 Mike Yastrzemski 45 D +525 COOL 107 0.151 90.8 6.9% 11.4% 389 8.0% 0.0% 9.5% 20

7 Ozzie Albies 43 D +575 COOL 120 0.161 86.9 4.0% 10.6% 386 13.2% 0.0% 10.0% 41

8 Dominic Smith 41 D — COOL 138 0.124 87.7 5.5% 10.7% 392 8.0% 0.0% 8.2% 9

9 Mauricio Dubon 35 D +850 COOL 175 0.121 86.6 3.8% 7.2% 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 41

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 70 B +305 COOL 3 0.293 90.4 10.9% 39.4%vs RHP 412 24.5% 40.0% 37.8% 16

2 Mickey Moniak 60 C+ +425 WARM 16 0.262 89.7 8.6% 22.8%vs RHP 415 17.2% 18.2% 22.7% 31

3 Willi Castro 47 D +700 · 74 0.159 87.5 7.6% 16.9%vs RHP 409 11.3% 15.4% 12.1% 35

4 Jake Mccarthy 44 D +850 COOL 88 0.183 85.0 5.9% 14.5%vs RHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 11.7% 43

5 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D +750 WARM 110 0.126 87.5 6.9% 15.6%vs RHP 409 7.8% 10.0% 9.4% 21

6 Tj Rumfield 40 D +850 WARM 117 0.150 84.0 5.6% 14.1%vs RHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 9.6% 33

7 Troy Johnston 36 D — WARM 153 0.118 89.6 4.2% 6.1%vs RHP 411 2.2% 14.3% 7.4% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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