TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ TB

Playable air · 1.08×

SD @ TB

Tropicana Field · 1:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 14 · vs Ray ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 24 · vs Rasmussen → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 70

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +290 C+ ●●○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda +750 D ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●○○○○

FADE Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 46

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +575 C ●●●●○

2 Ty France +625 C ●●●○○

3 Gavin Sheets +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 12.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 7.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Rasmussen Edge +575 0.182 · 90.7 · 8.4% 25.0% 22.2% F B O C 52

· SD Ty France COOL vs Rasmussen +625 0.214 · 91.9 · 7.8% 16.7% 20.0% F B O C 53

· — Junior Caminero ✶ vs Ray Edge +290 0.246 · 93.0 · 10.4% 7.7% 20.1% F B O C+ 64

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +850 0.178 · 87.4 · 6.6% 11.1% 19.2% F B O D 45

· — Jonathan Aranda vs Ray +750 0.139 · 91.1 · 9.0% 16.7% 8.7% F B O D 49

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Rasmussen +500 0.187 · 90.4 · 7.8% 8.3% 13.7% F B O D 49

· — Cedric Mullins vs Ray — 0.150 · 87.8 · 6.0% 10.0% 7.3% F B O D 45

· SD Fernando Tatis HOT vs Rasmussen — 0.159 · 92.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 16.9% F B O D 43

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +950 0.077 · 87.1 · 4.5% 8.3% 8.0% F B O D 31

· — Yandy Diaz vs Ray Edge +500 0.163 · 90.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 45

· — Jonny Deluca vs Ray Edge +750 0.163 · 85.7 · 5.6% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 41

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Rasmussen +950 0.105 · 89.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

· — Nick Fortes COOL vs Ray Edge +850 0.100 · 85.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Rasmussen +850 0.112 · 87.4 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· — Taylor Walls COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.074 · 85.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· — Richie Palacios COOL vs Ray — 0.109 · 86.1 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 38

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Ray — 0.055 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 80.8% ← leak OFF 12.5% BRK 6.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R

9.2% 10.0% 9.6% 9.4% C 53 +625

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.7% 7.9% 10.0% 10.9% C 52 +575

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Manny Machado R

11.5% 8.9% 5.8% 9.6% D 49 +500

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.6% 1.7% 5.7% 7.1% D 45 +850

Fernando Tatis R

10.7% 17.6% 14.0% 12.4% D 43 —

150

Xander Bogaerts R

7.4% 3.2% 4.4% 6.2% D 36 +950

166

Freddy Fermin R

2.8% 8.3% 4.7% 3.7% D 34 +850

177

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

3.5% 3.4% 2.4% 3.3% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (80.8% usage) carries Rasmussen's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.0% ← leak BRK 35.6% OFF 18.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R Edge

14.7% 11.6% 7.4% 12.7% C+ 64 +290

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L

10.0% 13.0% 4.4% 9.6% D 49 +750

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.8% 10.1% 3.8% 6.9% D 45 +500

Cedric Mullins L

4.1% 2.8% 7.7% 4.3% D 45 —

108

Jonny Deluca R Edge

4.5% 3.6% 0.0% 3.7% D 41 +750

137

Richie Palacios L

4.5% 1.6% 3.0% 3.5% D 38 —

152

Nick Fortes R Edge

2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 36 +850

173

Taylor Walls S Edge

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 32 —

199

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.0% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Merrill Sheets Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Ray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jackson Merrill +575 · 52

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.08× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 53 C +625 COOL 42 0.214 91.9 7.8% 27.5%vs RHP 394 16.2% 16.7% 20.0% 32

2 Jackson Merrill 52 C +575 WARM 44 0.182 90.7 8.4% 20.4%vs RHP 412 16.4% 25.0% 22.2% 32

3 Manny Machado 49 D +500 COOL 58 0.187 90.4 7.8% 26.3%vs RHP 397 16.9% 8.3% 13.7% 33

4 Gavin Sheets 45 D +850 COOL 81 0.178 87.4 6.6% 29.8%vs RHP 395 10.3% 11.1% 19.2% 15

5 Fernando Tatis 43 D — HOT 93 0.159 92.9 8.8% 13.9%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 43

6 Xander Bogaerts 36 D +950 WARM 150 0.105 89.0 6.2% 15.9%vs RHP 400 7.9% 0.0% 8.5% 30

7 Freddy Fermin 34 D +850 COOL 166 0.112 87.4 4.8% 6.5%vs RHP 382 2.4% 0.0% 7.3% 21

8 Jake Cronenworth 31 D +950 COOL 177 0.077 87.1 4.5% 8.6%vs RHP 392 2.3% 8.3% 8.0% 30

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 64 C+ +290 WARM 8 0.246 93.0 10.4% 33.3%vs LHP 413 25.0% 7.7% 20.1% 42

2 Jonathan Aranda 49 D +750 · 60 0.139 91.1 9.0% 8.3%vs LHP 386 11.9% 16.7% 8.7% 34

3 Yandy Diaz 45 D +500 WARM 79 0.163 90.7 7.7% 20.6%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 44

4 Cedric Mullins 45 D — WARM 85 0.150 87.8 6.0% 4.2%vs LHP 387 12.1% 10.0% 7.3% 29

5 Jonny Deluca 41 D +750 WARM 108 0.163 85.7 5.6% 11.1%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 31

6 Richie Palacios 38 D — COOL 137 0.109 86.1 5.5% 6.8% 398 3.9% 0.0% 6.7% 30

7 Nick Fortes 36 D +850 COOL 152 0.100 85.2 4.3% 5.6%vs LHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 7.6% 9

8 Taylor Walls 32 D — COOL 173 0.074 85.5 4.1% 3.7%vs LHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 7.3% 28

9 Chandler Simpson 23 D — COOL 199 0.055 83.8 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 49

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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