TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.31×

HOU @ NYM

Citi Field · 3:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 12 mph slight_out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

3:10p

+6 ↑

4:10p

+4 ↑

5:10p

+1 ↑

6:10p

-1 ↑

7:10p

best window is early — 3:10p at +7

Best of game Carson Benge conv 14 · vs Pecko ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 23 · vs Thornton → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Ethan Pecko RHP

leak 97

2.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carson Benge +575 D ●●○○○

2 Bo Bichette +700 D ●●○○○

3 Juan Soto +290 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 9

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +525 D ●●●●○

2 Yainer Diaz +750 D ●●○○○

3 Cam Smith +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Juan Soto ✶ vs Pecko Edge +290 0.256 · 92.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 24.7% F B O C+ 60

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Thornton +280 0.289 · 94.5 · 11.7% 0.0% 13.6% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Thornton Edge +525 0.193 · 88.2 · 7.1% 30.0% 16.9% F B O D 47

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Thornton Edge +750 0.155 · 88.0 · 6.7% 14.3% 14.0% F B O D 40

· — Carson Benge COOL vs Pecko Edge +575 0.147 · 89.1 · 7.6% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 44

· — Bo Bichette vs Pecko +700 0.128 · 89.6 · 7.0% 18.2% 9.2% F B O D 41

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Thornton Edge +500 0.173 · 89.2 · 9.5% 12.5% 11.1% F B O D 45

· HOU Christian Walker vs Thornton Edge +400 0.207 · 89.3 · 8.6% 9.1% 13.5% F B O D 48

· — Francisco Lindor COOL vs Pecko Edge +400 0.184 · 91.0 · 8.5% 8.3% 12.6% F B O D 48

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Thornton Edge +500 0.163 · 85.9 · 6.4% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 38

· — Jared Young COOL vs Pecko Edge +525 0.169 · 90.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 43

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Thornton Edge — 0.127 · 85.9 · 4.2% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 30

· — Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Pecko +425 0.164 · 90.0 · 10.9% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 44

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Thornton Edge +625 0.150 · 85.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 33

· — Brett Baty vs Pecko Edge — 0.115 · 90.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· — A.J. Ewing COOL vs Pecko Edge +750 0.113 · 89.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· — Marcus Semien COOL vs Pecko +625 0.132 · 86.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.3% ← leak BRK 30.8% OFF 4.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Yordan Alvarez L

17.2% 22.0% 9.3% 16.9% C 54 +280

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Christian Walker R Edge

7.8% 9.7% 13.2% 9.0% D 48 +400

Jeremy Peña R Edge

5.7% 6.6% 9.5% 6.2% D 47 +525

Cam Smith R Edge

9.0% 14.9% 16.1% 11.1% D 45 +500

116

Yainer Diaz R Edge

6.7% 3.7% 6.2% 5.5% D 40 +750

133

Isaac Paredes R Edge

6.7% 2.9% 1.8% 5.0% D 38 +500

169

Jose Altuve R Edge

5.3% 4.5% 0.0% 4.6% D 33 +625

183

Christian Vazquez R Edge

3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.3% usage) carries Thornton's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 71.2% ← leak BRK 14.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L Edge

18.2% 11.9% 14.2% C+ 60 +290

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.4% 7.0% 9.4% D 48 +400

Francisco Alvarez R

15.5% 14.9% 15.3% D 44 +425

Carson Benge L Edge

6.6% 8.5% 7.0% D 44 +575

Jared Young L Edge

6.3% 6.8% 7.5% D 43 +525

111

Bo Bichette R

5.1% 10.0% 6.1% D 41 +700

124

Brett Baty L Edge

8.3% 13.6% 8.6% D 39 —

130

Marcus Semien R

8.9% 1.9% 6.4% D 39 +625

146

A.J. Ewing L Edge

7.6% 11.7% 7.3% D 36 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (71.2% usage) carries Pecko's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Peña Diaz Soto Benge Bichette

Legend

attack side — vs Pecko fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 3:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 12 mph slight_out 79°F open

↑

12 mph · slight_out

77°F

3:10p · peak

↑

13 mph · slight_out

78°F

4:10p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

80°F

5:10p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

80°F

6:10p

-1

↑

9 mph · cross

80°F

7:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 79°F, wind 12 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 54 C +280 COOL 35 0.289 94.5 11.7% 22.5%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 29

2 Christian Walker 48 D +400 · 68 0.207 89.3 8.6% 25.0%vs LHP 391 17.5% 9.1% 13.5% 32

3 Jeremy Peña 47 D +525 WARM 73 0.193 88.2 7.1% 7.7%vs LHP 384 16.0% 30.0% 16.9% 23

4 Cam Smith 45 D +500 COOL 84 0.173 89.2 9.5% 22.2%vs LHP 408 12.7% 12.5% 11.1% 20

5 Yainer Diaz 40 D +750 WARM 116 0.155 88.0 6.7% 12.5%vs LHP 392 10.6% 14.3% 14.0% 25

6 Isaac Paredes 38 D +500 COOL 133 0.163 85.9 6.4% 3.6%vs LHP 377 11.6% 8.3% 7.8% 36

7 Jose Altuve 33 D +625 · 169 0.150 85.4 6.1% 20.0%vs LHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 33

8 Christian Vazquez 30 D — WARM 183 0.127 85.9 4.2% 8.3%vs LHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 9

vs Ethan Pecko · RHP 2.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 60 C+ +290 WARM 18 0.256 92.5 10.5% 30.4%vs RHP 401 19.3% 0.0% 24.7% 4

2 Francisco Lindor 48 D +400 COOL 69 0.184 91.0 8.5% 16.0%vs RHP 397 12.8% 8.3% 12.6% 35

3 Francisco Alvarez 44 D +425 COOL 87 0.164 90.0 10.9% 26.8%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 16

4 Carson Benge 44 D +575 COOL 89 0.147 89.1 7.6% 14.7%vs RHP 396 10.8% 16.7% 11.1% 36

5 Jared Young 43 D +525 COOL 95 0.169 90.0 7.5% 17.4%vs RHP 400 6.9% 0.0% 11.8% 37

6 Bo Bichette 41 D +700 WARM 111 0.128 89.6 7.0% 11.7%vs RHP 385 9.9% 18.2% 9.2% 33

7 Brett Baty 39 D — WARM 124 0.115 90.0 8.3% 12.7%vs RHP 397 6.7% 0.0% 8.6% 18

8 Marcus Semien 39 D +625 COOL 130 0.132 86.5 7.0% 16.2%vs RHP 391 10.8% 0.0% 8.0% 32

9 A.J. Ewing 36 D +750 COOL 146 0.113 89.2 7.5% 10.9%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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