TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ MIL

American Family Field is live · 1.17×

TEX @ MIL

American Family Field · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 13 mph slight_out 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+0 ↑

1:10p

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2:10p

+0 ↑

3:10p

-1 ↑

4:10p

-3 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +0

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 25 · vs Rocker ⟷ Jake Burger conv 24 · vs May → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 85

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +350 C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Chourio +400 C ●●●○○

3 Garrett Mitchell +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 43

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Burger +425 D ●●●●○

2 Joc Pederson +400 C ●●●○○

3 Corey Seager +320 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Rocker Edge +350 0.229 · 92.4 · 10.2% 22.2% 27.0% F B O C 56

· — Joc Pederson COOL vs May Edge +400 0.243 · 92.2 · 8.7% 20.0% 18.1% F B O C 51

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Rocker +400 0.191 · 91.8 · 10.0% 18.2% 18.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Jake Burger HOT vs May +425 0.193 · 90.2 · 9.1% 30.0% 17.7% F B O D 47

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Rocker Edge +400 0.153 · 93.0 · 9.7% 14.3% 9.9% F B O D 43

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Rocker Edge +575 0.173 · 90.1 · 7.6% 10.0% 11.5% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Rocker Edge +575 0.143 · 88.8 · 8.8% 12.5% 8.8% F B O D 43

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Rocker Edge +950 0.094 · 86.9 · 5.2% 14.3% 6.6% F B O D 30

· — Corey Seager vs May Edge +320 0.185 · 91.6 · 10.0% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 44

· — Wyatt Langford COOL vs May +500 0.202 · 89.3 · 7.0% 8.3% 11.1% F B O D 42

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Rocker — 0.130 · 88.6 · 5.9% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 34

· — Ezequiel Duran COOL vs May +850 0.171 · 88.8 · 6.5% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 37

· MIL William Contreras vs Rocker +525 0.123 · 90.1 · 7.7% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 37

· — Brandon Nimmo COOL vs May Edge +425 0.156 · 92.1 · 8.3% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 39

· — Nicky Lopez vs May Edge — 0.039 · 84.3 · — 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 14

· — Evan Carter COOL vs May Edge +750 0.126 · 87.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.0% ← leak BRK 38.2% OFF 4.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.9% 12.5% 12.8% 13.9% C 56 +350

Jackson Chourio R

14.0% 13.5% 5.3% 12.8% C 50 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

15.2% 11.0% 6.1% 12.6% D 43 +400

101

Christian Yelich L Edge

9.7% 8.6% 12.9% 9.8% D 43 +575

102

Brice Turang L Edge

8.7% 10.1% 1.6% 7.8% D 42 +575

144

William Contreras R

8.3% 8.9% 0.0% 7.6% D 37 +525

165

Joey Ortiz R

4.8% 5.4% 0.0% 4.6% D 34 —

186

David Hamilton L Edge

3.4% 6.0% 0.0% 3.6% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.0% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 67.5% ← leak BRK 25.8% OFF 6.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.4% 12.1% 3.2% 11.1% C 51 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R

11.4% 12.3% 11.4% 11.7% D 47 +425

Corey Seager L Edge

14.3% 12.5% 17.1% 14.3% D 44 +320

104

Wyatt Langford R

4.8% 9.9% 12.0% 7.0% D 42 +500

131

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

7.8% 16.2% 7.4% 10.1% D 39 +425

141

Ezequiel Duran R

7.6% 6.0% 0.0% 6.2% D 37 +850

182

Evan Carter L Edge

7.4% 4.0% 0.0% 5.4% D 31 +750

202

Nicky Lopez L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 14 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.5% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Pederson Burger

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers +350 · 56

Joc Pederson +400 · 51

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 13 mph slight_out 78°F retractable

↑

13 mph · slight_out

75°F

1:10p · peak

↑

12 mph · slight_out

78°F

2:10p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

81°F

3:10p

-1

↑

9 mph · slight_out

83°F

4:10p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

82°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 78°F, wind 13 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 56 C +350 COOL 29 0.229 92.4 10.2% 30.3%vs RHP 401 19.4% 22.2% 27.0% 18

2 Jackson Chourio 50 C +400 · 53 0.191 91.8 10.0% 18.7%vs RHP 400 16.8% 18.2% 18.4% 39

3 Garrett Mitchell 43 D +400 WARM 98 0.153 93.0 9.7% 22.9%vs RHP 415 7.5% 14.3% 9.9% 21

4 Christian Yelich 43 D +575 WARM 101 0.143 88.8 8.8% 18.4%vs RHP 400 7.7% 12.5% 8.8% 29

5 Brice Turang 42 D +575 COOL 102 0.173 90.1 7.6% 25.4%vs RHP 407 10.9% 10.0% 11.5% 30

6 William Contreras 37 D +525 · 144 0.123 90.1 7.7% 15.2%vs RHP 415 9.8% 9.1% 7.8% 41

7 Joey Ortiz 34 D — WARM 165 0.130 88.6 5.9% 13.9%vs RHP 391 6.7% 10.0% 7.6% 27

8 David Hamilton 30 D +950 COOL 186 0.094 86.9 5.2% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.5% 14.3% 6.6% 30

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 51 C +400 COOL 49 0.243 92.2 8.7% 29.9%vs RHP 396 21.7% 20.0% 18.1% 17

2 Jake Burger 47 D +425 HOT 71 0.193 90.2 9.1% 22.1%vs RHP 401 16.5% 30.0% 17.7% 24

3 Corey Seager 44 D +320 · 90 0.185 91.6 10.0% 20.4%vs RHP 394 15.8% 9.1% 10.5% 32

4 Wyatt Langford 42 D +500 COOL 104 0.202 89.3 7.0% 22.9%vs RHP 396 15.6% 8.3% 11.1% 35

5 Brandon Nimmo 39 D +425 COOL 131 0.156 92.1 8.3% 12.0%vs RHP 403 10.4% 8.3% 7.9% 36

6 Ezequiel Duran 37 D +850 COOL 141 0.171 88.8 6.5% 19.6%vs RHP 394 11.8% 8.3% 9.0% 29

7 Evan Carter 31 D +750 COOL 182 0.126 87.8 6.1% 11.8%vs RHP 374 7.0% 0.0% 6.6% 20

8 Nicky Lopez 14 D — · 202 0.039 84.3 — 4.8%vs RHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 7.4% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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