⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs

Slate · 2026-05-08

↩ today 🧙 Morning Wizard 🎲 Build Card
243 scored matchups · top 5 preview · upgrade for full slate Lineups loading…
2026-05-08
Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather
🔥 High Conviction 2 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers
#2 Nathaniel Lowe vs Mike Burrows FIP 5.14 HR/FB 35.3% #4 Elly De La Cruz vs Mike Burrows FIP 5.14 HR/FB 35.3%
📦 STACK Emmet Sheehan FIP 4.11 HR/FB 42.9% → #1 Matt Olson, #3 Ozzie Albies, #9 Michael Harris II, #10 Dominic Smith, #11 Drake Baldwin
📦 STACK Mike Burrows FIP 5.14 HR/FB 35.3% → #2 Nathaniel Lowe, #4 Elly De La Cruz, #6 Sal Stewart, #12 Spencer Steer
📦 STACK Kyle Bradish FIP 4.06 HR/FB 22.2% → #5 Shea Langeliers, #7 Carlos Cortes, #15 Tyler Soderstrom
📦 STACK Jacob Lopez FIP 6.33 HR/FB 14.3% → #8 Gunnar Henderson, #13 Pete Alonso, #14 Samuel Basallo
# Batter Score Edge Pitcher · Game Time Tier Hand '26 HR Form Due BP WT Hit?
1 71 · Mike Burrows (RHP)
HOU @ CIN · Great American Ball Park
6:10p 🟡 B
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
9
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.2×
HOU Bullpen
HR/FB15.6% HR/91.27 FIP5.20 IP99.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Great American Ball Park
Weather · Great American Ball Park
cool air · steady partial wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp61.1°F Wind11.5 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Note61°F, wind 12 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
2
·Matt Olson (L) 2
70 · Emmet Sheehan (RHP)
ATL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium
10:10p 🟡 B
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
16
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.2×
LAD Bullpen
HR/FB11.3% HR/90.83 FIP3.35 IP75.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Dodger Stadium
Weather · Dodger Stadium
cool air · light wind in · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.8°F Wind4.6 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-1 Note60°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: -1
3
·Ozzie Albies (S) 3
64 · Emmet Sheehan (RHP)
ATL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium
10:10p 🔵 C+
SHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
9
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls41 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV87.2 mph Surprise BarrelYes
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.5×
LAD Bullpen
HR/FB11.3% HR/90.83 FIP3.35 IP75.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Dodger Stadium
Weather · Dodger Stadium
cool air · light wind in · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.8°F Wind4.6 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-1 Note60°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: -1
4 63 · Jacob Lopez (LHP)
ATH @ BAL · Camden Yards
7:05p 🔵 C+
LHH vs LHP
Same-side disadvantage — L-on-L is the toughest matchup for batters
13
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.0×
ATH Bullpen
HR/FB13.3% HR/90.93 FIP3.81 IP96.9
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cool air · steady wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp62.0°F Wind12.7 mph W Characterout HR Modifier4 Note62°F, wind 13 mph W (out) — modifier: +4
5
·Aaron Judge (R) 2
61 · Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
NYY @ MIL · American Family Field
7:40p 🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
17
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
2.0×
MIL Bullpen
HR/FB10.7% HR/90.60 FIP3.38 IP89.8
Vulnerable Avg Tough
American Family Field
Weather · American Family Field
cold air · steady crosswind · retractable roof
Roofretractable Temp54.5°F Wind8.1 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier-2 Note54°F, wind 8 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: -2
6 60 · Kyle Bradish (RHP)
ATH @ BAL · Camden Yards
7:05p 🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
14
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV93.1 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.0×
BAL Bullpen
HR/FB16.7% HR/90.89 FIP3.33 IP90.8
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cool air · steady wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp62.0°F Wind12.7 mph W Characterout HR Modifier4 Note62°F, wind 13 mph W (out) — modifier: +4
7 59 · Mike Burrows (RHP)
HOU @ CIN · Great American Ball Park
6:10p 🟠 C
SHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
12
COOL
Form · COOL
SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.4×
HOU Bullpen
HR/FB15.6% HR/91.27 FIP5.20 IP99.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Great American Ball Park
Weather · Great American Ball Park
cool air · steady partial wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp61.1°F Wind11.5 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Note61°F, wind 12 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
8
·Liam Hicks (L) 5
59 · Foster Griffin (LHP)
WSH @ MIA · loanDepot Park
7:10p 🟠 C
LHH vs LHP
Same-side disadvantage — L-on-L is the toughest matchup for batters
11
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV88.0 mph Surprise BarrelYes
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
2.3×
WSH Bullpen
HR/FB20.7% HR/91.53 FIP5.44 IP99.9
Vulnerable Avg Tough
loanDepot Park
Weather · loanDepot Park
neutral
Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 NoteDome — weather irrelevant
9
·Ben Rice (L)
58 · Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
NYY @ MIL · American Family Field
7:40p 🟠 C
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
17
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV94.7 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.0×
MIL Bullpen
HR/FB10.7% HR/90.60 FIP3.38 IP89.8
Vulnerable Avg Tough
American Family Field
Weather · American Family Field
cold air · steady crosswind · retractable roof
Roofretractable Temp54.5°F Wind8.1 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier-2 Note54°F, wind 8 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: -2
10
·Sal Stewart (R) 2
56 · Mike Burrows (RHP)
HOU @ CIN · Great American Ball Park
6:10p 🟠 C
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
12
COOL
Form · COOL
SignalCOOL Batted Balls41 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.0×
HOU Bullpen
HR/FB15.6% HR/91.27 FIP5.20 IP99.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Great American Ball Park
Weather · Great American Ball Park
cool air · steady partial wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp61.1°F Wind11.5 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Note61°F, wind 12 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
11
·Carlos Cortes (L) 4
56 · Kyle Bradish (RHP)
ATH @ BAL · Camden Yards
7:05p 🟠 C
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
5
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
·
BAL Bullpen
HR/FB16.7% HR/90.89 FIP3.33 IP90.8
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cool air · steady wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp62.0°F Wind12.7 mph W Characterout HR Modifier4 Note62°F, wind 13 mph W (out) — modifier: +4
12 56 · Jesús Luzardo (LHP)
COL @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park
6:40p 🟠 C
RHH vs LHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
13
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV93.1 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.3×
PHI Bullpen
HR/FB12.2% HR/90.87 FIP3.73 IP93.1
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Citizens Bank Park
Weather · Citizens Bank Park
cool air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.4°F Wind5.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier-1 Note59°F, wind 6 mph SW (out) — modifier: -1
Hunter Goodman — Home Run
OffJesús Luzardo Exit Velo101.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance389 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park
13 56 · Chase Dollander (RHP)
COL @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park
6:40p 🟠 C
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
22
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.7×
COL Bullpen
HR/FB17.8% HR/91.20 FIP4.14 IP134.7
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Citizens Bank Park
Weather · Citizens Bank Park
cool air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.4°F Wind5.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier-1 Note59°F, wind 6 mph SW (out) — modifier: -1
Kyle Schwarber — Home Run
OffChase Dollander Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle37.0° Distance415 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park
14
·Mickey Moniak (L) 3
55 · Jesús Luzardo (LHP)
COL @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park
6:40p 🟠 C
LHH vs LHP
Same-side disadvantage — L-on-L is the toughest matchup for batters
12
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
3.0×
PHI Bullpen
HR/FB12.2% HR/90.87 FIP3.73 IP93.1
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Citizens Bank Park
Weather · Citizens Bank Park
cool air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.4°F Wind5.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier-1 Note59°F, wind 6 mph SW (out) — modifier: -1
15
·Mike Trout (R) 3
55 · Dylan Cease (RHP)
LAA @ TOR · Rogers Centre
7:07p 🟠 C
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
14
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.2×
TOR Bullpen
HR/FB14.8% HR/90.69 FIP2.89 IP104.0
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Rogers Centre
Weather · Rogers Centre
neutral
Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 NoteDome — weather irrelevant
16
Pete Alonso (R) 3
54 · Jacob Lopez (LHP)
ATH @ BAL · Camden Yards
7:05p 🟠 C
RHH vs LHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
11
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
2.0×
ATH Bullpen
HR/FB13.3% HR/90.93 FIP3.81 IP96.9
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cool air · steady wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp62.0°F Wind12.7 mph W Characterout HR Modifier4 Note62°F, wind 13 mph W (out) — modifier: +4
Pete Alonso — Home Run
OffJacob Lopez Exit Velo107.0 mph Angle20.0° Distance373 ft StadiumCamden Yards
17 54 · Jacob Lopez (LHP)
ATH @ BAL · Camden Yards
7:05p 🟠 C
LHH vs LHP
Same-side disadvantage — L-on-L is the toughest matchup for batters
9
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.8×
ATH Bullpen
HR/FB13.3% HR/90.93 FIP3.81 IP96.9
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cool air · steady wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp62.0°F Wind12.7 mph W Characterout HR Modifier4 Note62°F, wind 13 mph W (out) — modifier: +4
18 53 · Kyle Bradish (RHP)
ATH @ BAL · Camden Yards
7:05p 🟠 C
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
7
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.1×
BAL Bullpen
HR/FB16.7% HR/90.89 FIP3.33 IP90.8
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cool air · steady wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp62.0°F Wind12.7 mph W Characterout HR Modifier4 Note62°F, wind 13 mph W (out) — modifier: +4
19 52 · Emmet Sheehan (RHP)
ATL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium
10:10p 🟠 C
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
13
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV94.8 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.8×
LAD Bullpen
HR/FB11.3% HR/90.83 FIP3.35 IP75.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Dodger Stadium
Weather · Dodger Stadium
cool air · light wind in · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.8°F Wind4.6 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-1 Note60°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: -1
20
·Drake Baldwin (L) 4
52 · Emmet Sheehan (RHP)
ATL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium
10:10p 🟠 C
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
13
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
2.5×
LAD Bullpen
HR/FB11.3% HR/90.83 FIP3.35 IP75.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Dodger Stadium
Weather · Dodger Stadium
cool air · light wind in · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.8°F Wind4.6 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-1 Note60°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: -1
21 52 · Kris Bubic (LHP)
DET @ KC · Kauffman Stadium
7:40p 🟠 C
RHH vs LHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
8
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
4.0×
KC Bullpen
HR/FB19.1% HR/91.34 FIP5.05 IP80.7
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Kauffman Stadium
Weather · Kauffman Stadium
cool air · light crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.9°F Wind1.0 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier-1 Note60°F, wind 1 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: -1
22 51 · Emerson Hancock (RHP)
SEA @ CWS · Rate Field
7:40p 🟠 C
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
20
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV95.4 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.7×
SEA Bullpen
HR/FB9.1% HR/90.65 FIP3.61 IP96.7
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Rate Field
Weather · Rate Field
Unknown stadium
HR Modifier0 NoteUnknown stadium
Munetaka Murakami — Home Run
OffEmerson Hancock Exit Velo106.2 mph Angle32.0° Distance380 ft StadiumRate Field
23
·Jordan Walker (R) 3
50 · Griffin Canning (RHP)
STL @ SD · Petco Park
9:45p 🟠 C
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
15
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
2.3×
SD Bullpen
HR/FB14.3% HR/90.63 FIP3.18 IP113.7
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Petco Park
Weather · Petco Park
cool air · light crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp61.4°F Wind4.6 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier-1 Note61°F, wind 5 mph SW (cross) — modifier: -1
24 50 · Emerson Hancock (RHP)
SEA @ CWS · Rate Field
7:40p 🟠 C
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
15
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.0×
SEA Bullpen
HR/FB9.1% HR/90.65 FIP3.61 IP96.7
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Rate Field
Weather · Rate Field
Unknown stadium
HR Modifier0 NoteUnknown stadium
25
·Dominic Smith (L) 2
49 · Emmet Sheehan (RHP)
ATL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium
10:10p ⚪ D
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
5
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.7×
LAD Bullpen
HR/FB11.3% HR/90.83 FIP3.35 IP75.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Dodger Stadium
Weather · Dodger Stadium
cool air · light wind in · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.8°F Wind4.6 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-1 Note60°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: -1
26
·Spencer Steer (R) 3
49 · Mike Burrows (RHP)
HOU @ CIN · Great American Ball Park
6:10p ⚪ D
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
7
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
3.6×
HOU Bullpen
HR/FB15.6% HR/91.27 FIP5.20 IP99.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Great American Ball Park
Weather · Great American Ball Park
cool air · steady partial wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp61.1°F Wind11.5 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Note61°F, wind 12 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0
27 48 · Kris Bubic (LHP)
DET @ KC · Kauffman Stadium
7:40p ⚪ D
LHH vs LHP
Same-side disadvantage — L-on-L is the toughest matchup for batters
6
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
5.0×
KC Bullpen
HR/FB19.1% HR/91.34 FIP5.05 IP80.7
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Kauffman Stadium
Weather · Kauffman Stadium
cool air · light crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.9°F Wind1.0 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier-1 Note60°F, wind 1 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: -1
28
·Bryce Harper (L) 4
48 · Chase Dollander (RHP)
COL @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park
6:40p ⚪ D
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
13
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV88.6 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.8×
COL Bullpen
HR/FB17.8% HR/91.20 FIP4.14 IP134.7
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Citizens Bank Park
Weather · Citizens Bank Park
cool air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp59.4°F Wind5.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier-1 Note59°F, wind 6 mph SW (out) — modifier: -1
29
·Coby Mayo (R) 3
47 · Jacob Lopez (LHP)
ATH @ BAL · Camden Yards
7:05p ⚪ D
RHH vs LHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
6
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.2×
ATH Bullpen
HR/FB13.3% HR/90.93 FIP3.81 IP96.9
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cool air · steady wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp62.0°F Wind12.7 mph W Characterout HR Modifier4 Note62°F, wind 13 mph W (out) — modifier: +4
30
Byron Buxton (R) 2
47 · Parker Messick (LHP)
MIN @ CLE · Progressive Field
7:15p ⚪ D
RHH vs LHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
17
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls41 BBE Barrel%nan% Avg EV88.8 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.0×
CLE Bullpen
HR/FB18.3% HR/91.33 FIP4.15 IP101.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Progressive Field
Weather · Progressive Field
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp52.4°F Wind10.4 mph WSW Charactercross HR Modifier-2 Note52°F, wind 10 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: -2
Byron Buxton — Home Run
OffParker Messick Exit Velo103.5 mph Angle27.0° Distance400 ft StadiumProgressive Field
🔥

The full lineup is in the hole

Sign up to see every ranked matchup with scores, tiers, pitcher intel, and conviction tools. Pro gets 150+ batters daily.

238 more waiting in the on-deck circle
Model Health · HR catch rate by tier
season-to-date
S 0.0%
A+ 17.2%
A 18.2%
B 20.0%
C+ 15.1%
C 12.3%
D 7.7%
Best Day
32.0%
May 29
LD 3.2.80

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.