3
HRs allowed
16.7%
HR rate (pool)
16.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.43
FIP
3.34
xFIP
+0.08
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
78
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 78th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 109.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Chase Dollander.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
37.0%
83.4
33.0°
3
-1.5
Sinker Hard
24.2%
83.9
2.1°
1
-0.2
Slider Breaking
14.5%
86.6
14.2°
0
-0.8
Changeup Offspeed
10.9%
81.0
6.2°
2
+5.1
Curveball Breaking
8.1%
80.4
17.0°
0
+2.3
Sweeper Breaking
5.2%
79.7
20.3°
0
-1.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups18
HRs allowed (pool)3
Pool HR rate16.7%
Pool HR/game day1.5
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB16.6% 78
HR/9—
FIP3.43 28
xFIP3.34
FIP − xFIP+0.08 53
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Fastball
Hard · 37.0% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle33.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches291
Sinker
Hard · 24.2% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle2.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches190
Slider
Breaking · 14.5% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.6 mph
Avg launch angle14.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches114
Changeup
Offspeed · 10.9% usage
+5.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.0 mph
Avg launch angle6.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches86
Curveball
Breaking · 8.1% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.4 mph
Avg launch angle17.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches64
Sweeper
Breaking · 5.2% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle20.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches41
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Chase Dollander.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
3 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 396 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-14
9
1
104.1
2026-05-08
9
2
109.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Chase Dollander isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.