3
HRs allowed
16.7%
HR rate (pool)
16.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.43
FIP
3.34
xFIP
+0.08
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
75
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 75th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
11.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 109.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Chase Dollander.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
37.0%
83.4
33.0°
3
-1.4
Sinker Hard
24.2%
83.9
2.1°
1
-0.2
Slider Breaking
14.5%
86.6
14.2°
0
-0.7
Changeup Offspeed
10.9%
81.0
6.2°
2
+5.0
Curveball Breaking
8.1%
80.4
17.0°
0
+2.3
Sweeper Breaking
5.2%
79.7
20.3°
0
-1.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups18
HRs allowed (pool)3
Pool HR rate16.7%
Pool HR/game day1.5
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB16.6% 75
HR/9—
FIP3.43 26
xFIP3.34
FIP − xFIP+0.08 52
Barrel% allowed11.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-01
Fastball
Hard · 37.0% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle33.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches291
Sinker
Hard · 24.2% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle2.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches190
Slider
Breaking · 14.5% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.6 mph
Avg launch angle14.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches114
Changeup
Offspeed · 10.9% usage
+5.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.0 mph
Avg launch angle6.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches86
Curveball
Breaking · 8.1% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.4 mph
Avg launch angle17.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches64
Sweeper
Breaking · 5.2% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle20.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches41
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Chase Dollander.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
3 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 396 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-14
9
1
104.1
2026-05-08
9
2
109.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Chase Dollander isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Chase Dollander isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Chase Dollander
How many home runs has Chase Dollander allowed this season?
Chase Dollander has allowed 3 home runs across 2 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Chase Dollander?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Chase Dollander include Andy Pages (1), Brett Baty (1), Cam Smith (1) and 14 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.