⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
PIT
@ 10:15p
SF
Oracle Park · 9 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.91×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
cold air · strong partial wind out · roof open
Combined
0.999
Temp
52.8°F
Wind
18.0 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 39 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 63 0.238 89.4 · 19.2% 396 16.1% 33.3% 18.8% 36
2 Jung Hoo Lee Jung Hoo Lee 31 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 120 0.155 88.3 · 10.0% 363 6.2% 8.3% 7.1% 42
3 Heliot Ramos Heliot Ramos 25 ⚪ D · · 163 0.149 92.5 · 11.1% 386 10.0% 8.3% 6.1% 34
4 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 21 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 184 0.091 87.3 · 15.4% 349 3.1% 0.0% 5.7% 23
5 Harrison Bader Harrison Bader 18 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 201 0.077 87.1 · 0.0% 408 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 30
6 Willy Adames Willy Adames 18 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 202 0.166 88.0 · 18.8% 375 6.2% 0.0% 7.7% 28
7 Luis Arraez Luis Arraez 14 ⚪ D · · 217 0.065 86.8 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 41
8 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 10 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 235 0.087 89.8 · 11.1% 393 4.8% 8.3% 6.2% 30
9 Patrick Bailey Patrick Bailey 7 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 240 0.043 90.4 · 0.0% 407 3.3% 0.0% 5.2% 11
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

6 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.