4
HRs allowed
5.1%
HR rate (pool)
9.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.57
FIP
3.96
xFIP
-0.38
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
23
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 23th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 109.7 EV · 419 ft
max EV allowed 114.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Kris Bubic.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
41.2%
83.1
31.2°
2
+0.8
Changeup Offspeed
20.0%
81.2
5.6°
0
-2.9
Sweeper Breaking
17.3%
83.4
12.2°
2
+1.4
Sinker Hard
12.7%
80.8
14.5°
0
-2.9
Slider Breaking
8.9%
76.3
20.2°
0
-1.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups79
HRs allowed (pool)4
Pool HR rate5.1%
Pool HR/game day0.44
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB9.6% 23
HR/9—
FIP3.57 32
xFIP3.96
FIP − xFIP-0.38 24
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 41.2% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle31.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches334
Changeup
Offspeed · 20.0% usage
-2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle5.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches162
Sweeper
Breaking · 17.3% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle12.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches140
Sinker
Hard · 12.7% usage
-2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle14.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches103
Slider
Breaking · 8.9% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.3 mph
Avg launch angle20.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches72
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Kris Bubic.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
4 allowed · scored pool
avg 109.7 EV · 419 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 9 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-14
9
1
108.5
2026-05-08
9
0
105.7
2026-05-03
9
0
107.2
2026-04-28
9
0
103.1
2026-04-21
9
1
114.2
2026-04-16
9
1
109.8
2026-04-10
7
0
105.7
2026-04-05
9
0
110.9
2026-03-30
9
1
108.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Kris Bubic isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.