Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-09-01T17:00:26-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-09-01
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jose Trevino | Randy Vasquez | Cutter | +15.4 | +1.4 | 24% | 2 | 6 | #88 | |
| · | Alika Williams | MacKenzie Gore | Cutter | +15.3 | +1.5 | 7% | 1 | 4 | #187 | |
| · | Max Clark | Andrew Morris | Sweeper | +15.3 | +0.3 | 10% | 2 | 0 | #205 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +4.5 | +0.6 | 54% | 17 | 6 | #27 | |
| · | Dylan Crews | AJ Smith-Shawver | Splitter | +8.6 | -0.7 | 35% | 1 | 0 | #80 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.7 | +0.6 | 54% | 9 | 6 | #69 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +6.6 | +1.9 | 31% | 4 | 5 | #98 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +2.7 | +0.5 | 52% | 8 | 12 | #16 | |
| · | Mickey Gasper | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +5.1 | -1.2 | 47% | 3 | 7 | #100 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +2.3 | -1.1 | 54% | 13 | 2 | #22 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.5 | 52% | 6 | 12 | #107 | |
| · | Ryan Mcmahon | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.2 | +0.6 | 54% | 4 | 6 | #158 | |
| · | Trent Grisham | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.0 | +0.6 | 54% | 8 | 6 | #106 | |
| · | Max Muncy | MacKenzie Gore | Fastball | +2.7 | -0.9 | 46% | 15 | 6 | #19 | |
| · | Abimelec Ortiz | AJ Smith-Shawver | Fastball | +3.3 | -1.7 | 46% | 3 | 0 | #67 | |
| · | George Springer | Gavin Williams | Curveball | +7.1 | +0.4 | 22% | 2 | 7 | #99 | |
| · | Austin Wells | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.4 | +0.6 | 54% | 3 | 6 | #191 | |
| · | Javier Baez | Andrew Morris | Fastball | +3.5 | -1.7 | 46% | 1 | 0 | #237 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Ronel Blanco | Slider | +1.9 | +7.8 | 18% | 2 | 3 | #24 | |
| · | Henry Bolte | MacKenzie Gore | Curveball | +6.9 | +1.2 | 18% | 1 | 6 | #169 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Ronel Blanco | Fastball | +2.4 | +1.7 | 36% | 13 | 2 | #1 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Kyle Bradish | Sinker | +4.2 | -0.4 | 35% | 6 | 4 | #8 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Paul Skenes | Fastball | +3.7 | -1.2 | 41% | 7 | 7 | #82 | |
| · | Cody Bellinger | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.7 | +0.6 | 54% | 2 | 6 | #175 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Eduardo Rodriguez | Fastball | +3.8 | -1.4 | 40% | 13 | 4 | #53 | |
| · | Jared Young | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.5 | +0.5 | 52% | 1 | 12 | #105 | |
| · | Brett Baty | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.4 | +0.5 | 52% | 4 | 12 | #141 | |
| · | A.J. Ewing | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.6 | +0.5 | 52% | 3 | 12 | #164 | |
| · | Nick Sogard | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +1.9 | -1.2 | 47% | 3 | 7 | #170 | |
| · | Cody Freeman | Brady Basso | Slider | +6.1 | +1.7 | 19% | 0 | 0 | #182 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+49.6 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+42.2 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+38.1 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+43.7 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+31.3 RV allowed
Zack Littell
+24.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.