Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-15T11:00:48-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-15
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Max Muncy | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +2.3 | -1.8 | 64% | 12 | 8 | #43 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.5 | -1.8 | 64% | 8 | 8 | #127 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.1 | -1.8 | 64% | 6 | 8 | #149 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.1 | +0.4 | 49% | 2 | 10 | #97 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.3 | -1.8 | 64% | 7 | 8 | #18 | |
| · | Ryan Waldschmidt | Grant Holmes | Slider | +4.8 | +0.0 | 36% | 1 | 7 | #115 | |
| · | Teoscar Hernandez | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.1 | -1.8 | 64% | 4 | 8 | #145 | |
| · | Nasim Nunez | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +4.6 | +1.8 | 31% | 0 | 3 | #214 | |
| · | Trent Grisham | Braydon Fisher | Slider | +1.9 | -0.7 | 51% | 2 | 4 | #48 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Braydon Fisher | Slider | +1.0 | -0.7 | 51% | 4 | 4 | #10 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +1.9 | -1.2 | 49% | 5 | 9 | #12 | |
| · | Heriberto Hernández | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.6 | +0.4 | 49% | 3 | 10 | #41 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | Grant Holmes | Slider | +3.3 | +0.0 | 36% | 3 | 7 | #7 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +1.5 | -1.2 | 49% | 6 | 9 | #14 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Jared Jones | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.4 | 45% | 4 | 6 | #24 | |
| · | Brice Turang | Justin Wrobleski | Cutter | +4.3 | +8.6 | 1% | 3 | 1 | #73 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Cam Schlittler | Fastball | +2.8 | -1.6 | 44% | 10 | 6 | #81 | |
| · | William Contreras | Justin Wrobleski | Cutter | +4.3 | +8.6 | 1% | 5 | 1 | #116 | |
| · | George Springer | Cam Schlittler | Cutter | +5.8 | -0.3 | 26% | 3 | 6 | #148 | |
| · | Jose Caballero | Braydon Fisher | Curveball | +4.4 | +0.9 | 28% | 1 | 2 | #163 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Connor Prielipp | Fastball | +3.5 | +1.6 | 29% | 12 | 4 | #25 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.1 | 45% | 7 | 10 | #54 | |
| · | Tyler Soderstrom | MacKenzie Gore | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.0 | 46% | 6 | 6 | #11 | |
| · | Ty France | Joey Cantillo | Changeup | +5.1 | +0.1 | 26% | 2 | 4 | #49 | |
| · | Jazz Chisholm | Braydon Fisher | Slider | +0.2 | -0.7 | 51% | 5 | 4 | #111 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Kyle Bradish | Slider | +4.5 | +0.8 | 26% | 3 | 7 | #125 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Brady Singer | Sinker | -0.2 | +0.4 | 49% | 1 | 10 | #153 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Sean Manaea | Cutter | +7.1 | +2.4 | 7% | 6 | 3 | #35 | |
| · | Caleb Durbin | Jared Jones | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.4 | 45% | 4 | 6 | #147 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Troy Melton | Fastball | +3.5 | -1.0 | 36% | 2 | 5 | #177 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+40.6 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+27.0 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.8 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.