Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-07-21T17:01:43-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-21
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Tyler Tolbert | Tyler Mahle | Cutter | +19.3 | -0.7 | 15% | 1 | 2 | #127 | |
| · | Tommy Edman | Zack Wheeler | Splitter | +18.4 | -2.5 | 15% | 1 | 1 | #93 | |
| · | Justin Foscue | Noah Schultz | Cutter | +13.5 | +0.0 | 20% | 2 | 1 | #20 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +6.5 | +0.0 | 48% | 15 | 5 | #4 | |
| · | Chadwick Tromp | Eduardo Rivera | Fastball | +5.7 | -3.5 | 61% | 0 | 0 | #238 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +4.4 | +0.0 | 48% | 9 | 5 | #31 | |
| · | Luis Campusano | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +3.8 | -1.4 | 55% | 1 | 4 | #36 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +4.4 | +0.8 | 44% | 9 | 5 | #69 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Chase Burns | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.7 | 57% | 8 | 7 | #70 | |
| · | Jim Jarvis | Walker Buehler | Changeup | +7.5 | +5.9 | 10% | 0 | 4 | #106 | |
| · | Ben Williamson | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +5.4 | +0.4 | 39% | 0 | 4 | #223 | |
| · | Luis Campusano | Reynaldo Lopez | Slider | +5.4 | +2.4 | 30% | 2 | 4 | #36 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Carson Palmquist | Sinker | +4.4 | +1.0 | 37% | 5 | 0 | #6 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +3.2 | -1.4 | 51% | 8 | 7 | #10 | |
| · | Luke Raley | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.7 | 57% | 6 | 7 | #103 | |
| · | George Springer | Drew Rasmussen | Cutter | +7.2 | -1.0 | 31% | 3 | 4 | #115 | |
| · | Edmundo Sosa | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +4.2 | -2.6 | 50% | 3 | 3 | #136 | |
| · | J.P. Crawford | Chase Burns | Changeup | +4.8 | +9.4 | 6% | 2 | 3 | #228 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Carson Palmquist | Sinker | +4.1 | +1.0 | 37% | 2 | 0 | #107 | |
| · | Nick Fortes | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +4.3 | +0.4 | 39% | 0 | 4 | #219 | |
| · | J.P. Crawford | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.7 | 57% | 4 | 7 | #228 | |
| · | A.J. Ewing | Brandon Sproat | Cutter | +6.7 | +1.2 | 24% | 1 | 4 | #141 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +3.6 | -2.6 | 50% | 10 | 3 | #26 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +3.8 | +0.4 | 39% | 0 | 4 | #161 | |
| · | Julio Rodríguez | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.7 | 57% | 4 | 7 | #192 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Kyle Bradish | Sinker | +5.8 | -1.0 | 33% | 9 | 2 | #15 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.4 | 55% | 9 | 4 | #17 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Eduardo Rivera | Fastball | +1.6 | -3.5 | 61% | 9 | 0 | #50 | |
| · | Jesus Rodriguez | Luinder Avila | Slider | +7.0 | +0.9 | 22% | 1 | 3 | #130 | |
| · | Cole Young | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.2 | -0.7 | 57% | 6 | 7 | #162 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.3 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.